HOG Earnings

HOG reported its earnings on 2026-02-10, showcasing a revenue of 496.16M against an estimate of 527.28M, resulting in a -5.9% surprise. The EPS was -2.44, surpassing the expected -0.92 by -165.22%. The stock experienced a 3.97% price change on the earnings day and a 1.39% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following HOG's earnings announcement on 2026-02-10, the stock price moved by 3.97% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a 1.39% change. Historically, HOG's stock price tends to shift by an average of 2.62% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and 0.75% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2026/Q1, analysts estimate HOG's annual revenue to reach 1.14B, while the EPS is projected at 0.96. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised downward by -0.07% and EPS estimates revised downward by -0.82% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company's performance.

The correlation between HOG's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were revised downward by -0.07%, while EPS estimates moved revised downward by -0.82%. This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, HOG's stock price typically moves by 2.62% in the 10 days before its earnings and 0.75% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2026/Q1 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.96 and revenue of 1.14B.

The earnings call reveals a mixed performance with several negative indicators: a decline in global retail sales, revenue, and gross margins, and significant operating losses. Although there are some positives, such as the reduction in dealer inventory and improvement in LiveWire's performance, the overall financial health appears weak. The Q&A further highlights uncertainties in HDFS performance and the lack of clear guidance on future profitability and leverage metrics. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to experience a negative reaction in the range of -2% to -8%.