CENX Should I Buy
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Century Aluminum Co (CENX) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While there are positive developments such as partnerships and elevated price targets, the recent financial performance, insider selling, and lack of strong proprietary trading signals suggest holding off for now.
The technical indicators are mixed. The MACD is negative and expanding, suggesting bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 54.089, and moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). The stock is trading above the pivot level of 50.052, with resistance at 54.972 and support at 45.132.
Analysts have raised price targets significantly, with the latest target at $68, citing strong EBITDA guidance and elevated Midwest Premiums.
The partnership with EGA to develop a new smelter in Oklahoma is expected to double U.S. aluminum production and enhance long-term growth.
Government support through Section 232 tariffs and tax credits positions the company well for future earnings growth.
Hedge funds are aggressively selling, with a 1267.52% increase in selling activity last quarter.
Insider trading shows a planned sale of 66,000 shares by an officer, indicating potential lack of confidence.
Financial performance in Q4 2025 showed a significant decline in net income (-95.79% YoY) and EPS (-95.35% YoY), despite a slight revenue increase.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 0.44% YoY to $633.7M, but net income dropped by 95.79% YoY to $1.8M, and EPS fell by 95.35% YoY to $0.02. Gross margin improved significantly to 14.2%, up 35.11% YoY, indicating better cost management.
Analysts are bullish, with multiple buy ratings and price target increases. The latest target is $68, up from $64, reflecting optimism about the company's EBITDA guidance, partnerships, and government support.
