Waste Management Q4 Results Fall Short of Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy WM?
Source: Benzinga
- Earnings Performance: Waste Management reported earnings of $1.93 per share, slightly below the market expectation of $1.94, yet reflecting a 13.5% year-over-year increase, indicating sustained profitability.
- Revenue Figures: The company’s fourth-quarter revenue was $6.31 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations of $6.39 billion, but still representing over a 7% increase from last year's $5.89 billion, showcasing robust market performance.
- Future Outlook: Waste Management projects full-year 2026 revenue between $26.43 billion and $26.63 billion, slightly below the Street's estimate of $26.66 billion, indicating a cautious approach towards future growth.
- Analyst Ratings: Despite mixed ratings, Wells Fargo raised its target price from $238 to $246, while Scotiabank downgraded it to $250, reflecting differing market perspectives on Waste Management's future performance.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy WM?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on WM
Wall Street analysts forecast WM stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 243.440
Low
223.00
Averages
247.61
High
266.00
Current: 243.440
Low
223.00
Averages
247.61
High
266.00
About WM
Waste Management, Inc. is a provider of environmental solutions. The Company provides collection, recycling, and disposal services to millions of residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers throughout the United States and Canada. Its segments include East Tier, West Tier, Recycling Processing and Sales, WM Renewable Energy, and WM Healthcare Solutions. East Tier primarily consists of geographic areas located in the Eastern U.S., the Great Lakes region and all of Canada. The West Tier primarily includes geographic areas located in the Western U.S., including the upper Midwest region and British Columbia, Canada. Recycling Processing and Sales includes the processing and sales of materials collected from residential, commercial, and industrial customers. WM Renewable Energy develops, operates, and promotes projects for the beneficial use of landfill gas. WM Healthcare Solutions includes Regulated Waste and Compliance Services and Secure Information Destruction services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Investors Turn to Emerging Dividend Aristocrats for Stability
- Market Haven: In 2026, investors are turning to stable dividend payers due to concerns over artificial intelligence, with Wolfe Research noting that the Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) has risen over 9% year-to-date, demonstrating the effectiveness of its defensive strategy amid economic uncertainty.
- Telecom Performance: Verizon has raised its dividend for 19 consecutive years, with a 20% stock price increase in 2026 and a current dividend yield of about 5.8%; despite cautious analyst sentiment, Daiwa Capital Markets upgraded it to buy, highlighting its stable profits and dividends.
- Costco's Steady Growth: Costco has consistently raised its dividend over the past 20 years, recently increasing its quarterly payout from $1.16 to $1.30, with a 14% stock price rise in 2026, and analysts predict it will be a key beneficiary in a stimulated consumer environment, with a projected 6% upside in stock price over the next year.
- Emerging Dividend Aristocrats List: In addition to Verizon and Costco, Wolfe Research identified companies like BlackRock, Hershey Co, and Waste Management as emerging dividend aristocrats, highlighting their appeal and stability in an uncertain market.
See More
Waste Management's Investment Returns Set to Materialize
- Shareholder Return Expectations: Waste Management anticipates a 29% year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2026, marking the largest jump since COVID, indicating that after years of investment, cash flow is rebounding, allowing for substantial shareholder returns.
- Capital Expenditure Strategy: The company deployed approximately $11.6 billion in 'planting' capital from FY2022 to FY2025, with $7.5 billion allocated to the acquisition of Stericycle, successfully creating a medical waste management segment that generated $2 billion in revenue and achieved a 16% profit margin in its first year, demonstrating the effectiveness of strategic investments.
- Infrastructure Modernization: WM invested about $1.8 billion in infrastructure, establishing seven landfill gas-to-energy plants now producing pipeline-quality natural gas, while also integrating robotics and AI across nine recycling facilities, enhancing operational efficiency and market competitiveness.
- Market Performance Analysis: Waste Management's stock surged from November lows, reclaiming both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, currently consolidating between $238 and $240, with a decisive breakout above $240 indicating entry into blue-sky territory, reflecting strong market confidence and effective risk management.
See More
Will RSG Stock Transform Guidance into Profits by 2026?
Earnings Report: Republic Services, Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.76, exceeding forecasts of $1.62, but slightly missed revenue expectations with $4.14 billion, which was 1.6% below the forecasted $4.21 billion.
Future Guidance: The company provided guidance for full-year 2026 revenue between $17.05 billion and $17.15 billion, indicating a 3% year-over-year increase, and EPS guidance between $7.20 and $7.28, also reflecting a similar growth rate.
Stock Performance: Despite a negative total return of around 2.2% over the last 12 months, Republic Services' stock is showing signs of a bullish reversal, with analysts suggesting a potential upside of about 15% and a price target near $245.
Market Trends: Investors are adopting a more defensive posture amid concerns about growth sustainability in the artificial intelligence sector, while Republic Services is expected to benefit from ongoing consolidation trends in the waste management industry.
See More
BMO Increases Target Price for Waste Management Inc. to $237, Up from $226
Waste Management Inc. Update: Waste Management Inc. has raised its target price to $237 from $226.
Market Reaction: The increase in target price reflects positive market sentiment and expectations for the company's performance.
See More
Housing Market May Be Stabilizing: Building Supplies Company QXO Anticipates Recovery
- Company Overview: QXO is a building-supplies company led by Brad Jacobs, known for his history of acquiring businesses.
- Recent Activity: The company has recently announced another acquisition deal, continuing its trend of expansion through acquisitions.
See More
WASTE MANAGEMENT INC: JEFFERIES INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $258 TO $263
- Company Update: Jeffries has raised its price target for Waste Management.
- New Price Target: The new target price is set at $263, up from the previous $258.
See More
Investors Turn to Emerging Dividend Aristocrats for Stability
- Market Haven: In 2026, investors are turning to stable dividend payers due to concerns over artificial intelligence, with Wolfe Research noting that the Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) has risen over 9% year-to-date, demonstrating the effectiveness of its defensive strategy amid economic uncertainty.
- Telecom Performance: Verizon has raised its dividend for 19 consecutive years, with a 20% stock price increase in 2026 and a current dividend yield of about 5.8%; despite cautious analyst sentiment, Daiwa Capital Markets upgraded it to buy, highlighting its stable profits and dividends.
- Costco's Steady Growth: Costco has consistently raised its dividend over the past 20 years, recently increasing its quarterly payout from $1.16 to $1.30, with a 14% stock price rise in 2026, and analysts predict it will be a key beneficiary in a stimulated consumer environment, with a projected 6% upside in stock price over the next year.
- Emerging Dividend Aristocrats List: In addition to Verizon and Costco, Wolfe Research identified companies like BlackRock, Hershey Co, and Waste Management as emerging dividend aristocrats, highlighting their appeal and stability in an uncertain market.
See More
Waste Management's Investment Returns Set to Materialize
- Shareholder Return Expectations: Waste Management anticipates a 29% year-over-year free cash flow growth in 2026, marking the largest jump since COVID, indicating that after years of investment, cash flow is rebounding, allowing for substantial shareholder returns.
- Capital Expenditure Strategy: The company deployed approximately $11.6 billion in 'planting' capital from FY2022 to FY2025, with $7.5 billion allocated to the acquisition of Stericycle, successfully creating a medical waste management segment that generated $2 billion in revenue and achieved a 16% profit margin in its first year, demonstrating the effectiveness of strategic investments.
- Infrastructure Modernization: WM invested about $1.8 billion in infrastructure, establishing seven landfill gas-to-energy plants now producing pipeline-quality natural gas, while also integrating robotics and AI across nine recycling facilities, enhancing operational efficiency and market competitiveness.
- Market Performance Analysis: Waste Management's stock surged from November lows, reclaiming both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, currently consolidating between $238 and $240, with a decisive breakout above $240 indicating entry into blue-sky territory, reflecting strong market confidence and effective risk management.
See More
Will RSG Stock Transform Guidance into Profits by 2026?
Earnings Report: Republic Services, Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.76, exceeding forecasts of $1.62, but slightly missed revenue expectations with $4.14 billion, which was 1.6% below the forecasted $4.21 billion.
Future Guidance: The company provided guidance for full-year 2026 revenue between $17.05 billion and $17.15 billion, indicating a 3% year-over-year increase, and EPS guidance between $7.20 and $7.28, also reflecting a similar growth rate.
Stock Performance: Despite a negative total return of around 2.2% over the last 12 months, Republic Services' stock is showing signs of a bullish reversal, with analysts suggesting a potential upside of about 15% and a price target near $245.
Market Trends: Investors are adopting a more defensive posture amid concerns about growth sustainability in the artificial intelligence sector, while Republic Services is expected to benefit from ongoing consolidation trends in the waste management industry.
See More
BMO Increases Target Price for Waste Management Inc. to $237, Up from $226
Waste Management Inc. Update: Waste Management Inc. has raised its target price to $237 from $226.
Market Reaction: The increase in target price reflects positive market sentiment and expectations for the company's performance.
See More
Housing Market May Be Stabilizing: Building Supplies Company QXO Anticipates Recovery
- Company Overview: QXO is a building-supplies company led by Brad Jacobs, known for his history of acquiring businesses.
- Recent Activity: The company has recently announced another acquisition deal, continuing its trend of expansion through acquisitions.
See More
WASTE MANAGEMENT INC: JEFFERIES INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $258 TO $263
- Company Update: Jeffries has raised its price target for Waste Management.
- New Price Target: The new target price is set at $263, up from the previous $258.
See More
