The Remitly Review: Insights from Divisadero's $95 Million Exit on the Digital Currency Landscape
Divestment Details: Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP sold 5,036,343 shares of Remitly Global, reducing its position by approximately $94.68 million, which now accounts for only 0.04% of the fund's $2.29 billion AUM.
Impact on Remitly Global: The significant sell-off removes a major institutional holder, prompting investors to reassess Remitly's current market position and future profitability in the competitive digital remittance landscape.
Company Overview: Remitly Global specializes in digital cross-border remittance services, primarily targeting immigrant families, and aims to provide secure and efficient money transfer solutions across approximately 150 countries.
Market Challenges: The company faces increased competition from digital-first rivals and traditional banks, alongside high customer acquisition costs and tightening regulatory requirements, necessitating a focus on profitability and customer retention.
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- Market Panic Impact: Remitly's stock fell 5% to $16.25 due to panic triggered by a blog post discussing AI's potential disruption of the financial payments sector, reflecting investor anxiety about future payment methods.
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Despite market pressures, Cantor Fitzgerald raised Remitly's price target from $17 to $20 while reiterating an overweight rating, indicating analysts' confidence in the company's future performance.
- Stablecoin Experimentation: Remitly has begun experimenting with stablecoins to mitigate potential market disruption; however, customers remain cautious about using stablecoins for remittances, highlighting the company's reliance on trust in its operational model.
- Improving Profitability: Despite poor stock market performance, Remitly reported strong growth and improving profitability in Q4, with a positive outlook for 2026, suggesting resilience in the cross-border payments sector.
- Stock Decline: Despite Cantor Fitzgerald raising Remitly's price target from $17 to $20, the stock fell 5% due to market panic over AI potentially disrupting the financial payments sector, highlighting the fragility of market sentiment.
- Analyst Optimism: Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an overweight rating on Remitly, citing strong fourth-quarter results and a positive outlook for 2026, indicating potential for sustained growth despite market challenges.
- AI Disruption Concerns: A hypothetical scenario from Citrini Research suggested that AI could replace credit cards with stablecoins, although Remitly's resilience in cross-border payments shows some capacity to withstand such pressures, yet market confidence is shaken.
- Competitive Market Pressure: Despite improvements in profitability, Remitly's stock performance remains weak, and it was not included in the analyst's recommended best stocks list, reflecting cautious investor sentiment regarding its future growth prospects.
- Strong Earnings Growth: Remitly Global reported a 26% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, with active customers up 19% and send volume rising 35%, which has significantly boosted investor confidence as the company rapidly gains market share.
- Profitability Improvement: The company achieved a record GAAP operating margin of 9% in Q4, indicating strong operating leverage at scale, although aggressive investments in marketing and product development are masking its true profit potential.
- Future Growth Outlook: Remitly is guiding for up to 20% revenue growth by 2026, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $340 million and $360 million, attracting investor interest and contributing to the stock's surge.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: With a market cap of $3.6 billion, Remitly's stock trades at just a 10x multiple on its adjusted earnings guidance for 2026, making it appealing given its sustained double-digit growth, and management is considering expanding its repurchase program.
- Significant Customer Growth: Remitly's active customers increased by 19% year-over-year in Q4, indicating rapid expansion in the remittance market, which enhances its market share and brand influence.
- Surge in Revenue and Send Volume: The company reported a 26% year-over-year revenue growth and a 35% increase in send volume for Q4, reflecting the success of its business model and rising market demand.
- Improved Profitability: Remitly achieved a GAAP operating margin of 9% in Q4, a record high, demonstrating significant operating leverage gained through scaling its operations.
- Future Growth Outlook: The company is guiding for a 20% revenue growth in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $340 million and $360 million, further solidifying its competitive position in the industry.
- Market Performance: U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones index dropping over 300 points, a decline of 0.64% to 49,346.38, indicating investor concerns about the economic outlook.
- Walmart Earnings: Walmart reported upbeat fourth-quarter results with adjusted earnings per share of 74 cents, exceeding the expected 73 cents, but its fiscal 2027 outlook fell short, projecting earnings between $2.75 and $2.85, below the consensus estimate of $2.96.
- Sales Growth: Walmart's sales reached $190.70 billion, a 5.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing the analyst consensus of $190.43 billion, demonstrating the company's strong performance in the retail market.
- Energy Stocks Rise: Despite the overall market decline, energy stocks gained 1.1%, reflecting investor confidence in the sector, likely driven by oil prices rising 2.1% to $66.53.
- Record Earnings Report: Remitly announced Q4 2025 revenue of $442.2 million, a 26% year-over-year increase, with net income of $41.2 million, marking the company's first GAAP profitability, indicating strong business growth potential.
- Customer and Transaction Volume Growth: Active customers rose 19% to 9.3 million, while remittance volume surged 35% to $20.8 billion, demonstrating Remitly's increasing competitiveness in the digital remittance market and attracting more users to its platform.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: Management projects 2026 revenue growth between 19% and 20%, reaching $1.94 billion to $1.96 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected between $340 million and $360 million, showcasing sustained profitability improvements ahead.
- Leadership Transition and Market Reaction: Founder Matt Oppenheimer handed the CEO role to Sebastian Gunningham, with the market responding positively as shares surged 29.24% to $17.59 on Thursday, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future direction.





