Century Aluminum Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 19 2026
0mins
Should l Buy CENX?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Performance: Century Aluminum reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.25, missing expectations by $0.04, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Details: The company's Q4 revenue reached $633.7 million, a 0.4% year-over-year increase, yet it fell short of expectations by $27.93 million, reflecting weaker-than-expected market demand that may impact future production plans.
- Outlook Forecast: For Q1 2026, the company anticipates adjusted EBITDA to range between $215 million and $235 million, with improved metal pricing and regional premiums offset by temporary higher energy costs in the U.S. due to Winter Storm Fern.
- Market Positioning: Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs, Century Aluminum is viewed as having a favorable market position, with potential to enhance competitiveness through operational optimization and cost control in the future.
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Analyst Views on CENX
Wall Street analysts forecast CENX stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 52.920
Low
42.00
Averages
55.67
High
64.00
Current: 52.920
Low
42.00
Averages
55.67
High
64.00
About CENX
Century Aluminum Company is a global producer of primary aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities, or smelters. The Company's annual production capacity is approximately 1,020,000 tons per year (tpy). It owns a carbon anode production facility located in the Netherlands (Vlissingen). Carbon anodes are consumed in the production of primary aluminum. Vlissingen supplies carbon anodes to its aluminum smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland. Each of its aluminum smelters in the United States produces anodes at on-site facilities. Through its Natur-Al product line, it provides low-carbon aluminum products. It operates three United States aluminum smelters, in Hawesville, Kentucky (Hawesville), Robards, Kentucky (Sebree) and Goose Creek, South Carolina (Mt. Holly), and one aluminum smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland (Grundartangi). The Grundartangi facility, is an aluminum reduction facility owned and operated by the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, Nordural Grundartangi ehf.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Middle East Supply Risks: Qatalum has initiated a controlled shutdown of its output due to escalating regional conflicts, warning that a full restart could take six to twelve months and issuing force majeure notices to customers, potentially tightening aluminum supplies for Europe and the U.S.
- Market Dependency: Europe relies on Gulf countries for approximately 30% of its aluminum imports, while the U.S. sources over 20%, making both regions vulnerable to supply risks amid heightened tensions, particularly if disruptions occur in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Stock Market Reaction: The surge in aluminum prices has led to Century Aluminium's stock rising over 7%, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while Kaiser Aluminium shares gained 2%, hitting an all-time high, reflecting optimistic market sentiment towards the aluminum sector.
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- Middle Eastern Supply: The region accounts for approximately 9% of global primary aluminum output, with major suppliers including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Iran, and Oman, indicating that any potential disruptions to bauxite or alumina flows present a
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- Strategic Partnership Outlook: The partnership with Emirates Global Aluminum to establish the first aluminum smelting plant in the U.S. in 47 years is expected to create 1,000 jobs, further boosting domestic aluminum production and enhancing market competitiveness.
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- Aluminum Partnership: Century Aluminum has partnered with Emirates Global Aluminum to establish the first aluminum smelting plant in the U.S. in 47 years, expected to create 1,000 jobs, highlighting the strategic importance of domestic aluminum production for the company.
- Strong Market Demand: Century Aluminum's stock soared about 150% in 2025 and is up approximately 31% as of February 28, 2026, reflecting the optimistic market outlook for aluminum, a metal with high global demand, which may lead to long-term growth for the company.
- Investor Caution: Despite the company's strong performance, The Motley Fool's analyst team did not include Century Aluminum in their current list of top investment stocks, advising investors to exercise caution and consider market competition and potential risks in their decision-making.
See More
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Project Details: The project aims to enhance collaboration and leverage resources between the two companies for mutual growth and development.
See More
EGA and U.S. Aluminum Company Sign Agreement to Enhance Oklahoma's Growing Aluminum Hub with Century Aluminum
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Boost for Oklahoma: This partnership aims to provide a significant boost to the local aluminum industry, potentially leading to increased production and job opportunities in the region.
See More
Aluminum Prices Surge 9% Amid U.S.-Israel-Iran Conflict
- Aluminum Price Surge: Since the onset of the U.S., Israel, and Iran conflict, aluminum prices have risen over 9%, with spot prices reaching $3,329.3 per ton, the highest since April 2022, indicating significant market concerns over supply disruptions.
- Middle East Supply Risks: Qatalum has initiated a controlled shutdown of its output due to escalating regional conflicts, warning that a full restart could take six to twelve months and issuing force majeure notices to customers, potentially tightening aluminum supplies for Europe and the U.S.
- Market Dependency: Europe relies on Gulf countries for approximately 30% of its aluminum imports, while the U.S. sources over 20%, making both regions vulnerable to supply risks amid heightened tensions, particularly if disruptions occur in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Stock Market Reaction: The surge in aluminum prices has led to Century Aluminium's stock rising over 7%, reaching its highest level since August 2008, while Kaiser Aluminium shares gained 2%, hitting an all-time high, reflecting optimistic market sentiment towards the aluminum sector.
See More
Aluminum Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Aluminum Price Surge: Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange jumped over 3%, leading to pre-market gains of 2.7% for Alcoa (AA) and 2.8% for Century Aluminum (CNEX), reflecting market concerns over potential disruptions in the Middle Eastern bauxite supply chain.
- Geopolitical Risks: The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran raises fears of disruptions in the critical Strait of Hormuz supply route, with Citi analysts noting that shipping disruptions could increase regional aluminum premiums even without immediate production halts.
- Middle Eastern Supply: The region accounts for approximately 9% of global primary aluminum output, with major suppliers including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Iran, and Oman, indicating that any potential disruptions to bauxite or alumina flows present a
See More
Century Aluminum Executive Sells Shares Worth $2.3 Million
- Executive Stock Sale: Gunnar Gudlaugsson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations at Century Aluminum, sold 43,000 shares on February 25, 2026, for a total transaction value of $2.3 million, reflecting his confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Record Transaction Size: This sale marks Gudlaugsson's largest transaction to date, significantly exceeding his historical median of 31,500 shares per sale since January 2024, indicating a bullish outlook on the market.
- Company Financial Overview: Century Aluminum reported a trailing twelve-month revenue of $2.53 billion and a net income of $40 million, showcasing the company's robust performance and growth potential in the aluminum sector.
- Strategic Partnership Outlook: The partnership with Emirates Global Aluminum to establish the first aluminum smelting plant in the U.S. in 47 years is expected to create 1,000 jobs, further boosting domestic aluminum production and enhancing market competitiveness.
See More
Gunnar Gudlaugsson Sells 43,000 Shares for $2.33 Million
- Executive Share Reduction: Gunnar Gudlaugsson sold 43,000 shares on February 25, 2026, for approximately $2.33 million at a price of $54.10 per share, reducing his holdings from 179,393 to 136,393 shares, indicating a cautious outlook from the executive regarding the company's future.
- Aluminum Partnership: Century Aluminum has partnered with Emirates Global Aluminum to establish the first aluminum smelting plant in the U.S. in 47 years, expected to create 1,000 jobs, highlighting the strategic importance of domestic aluminum production for the company.
- Strong Market Demand: Century Aluminum's stock soared about 150% in 2025 and is up approximately 31% as of February 28, 2026, reflecting the optimistic market outlook for aluminum, a metal with high global demand, which may lead to long-term growth for the company.
- Investor Caution: Despite the company's strong performance, The Motley Fool's analyst team did not include Century Aluminum in their current list of top investment stocks, advising investors to exercise caution and consider market competition and potential risks in their decision-making.
See More
EGA and Century Collaborate on Development Project, with EGA Holding 60% Stake and Century 40%
Partnership Announcement: A new development project has been announced in partnership with EGA Holding, where EGA will hold a 60% stake and Century will hold 40%.
Project Details: The project aims to enhance collaboration and leverage resources between the two companies for mutual growth and development.
See More
EGA and U.S. Aluminum Company Sign Agreement to Enhance Oklahoma's Growing Aluminum Hub with Century Aluminum
Agreement Announcement: A new agreement has been reached between U.S. Aluminum Co. and EGA, Century Aluminum, which is expected to enhance the aluminum hub in Oklahoma.
Boost for Oklahoma: This partnership aims to provide a significant boost to the local aluminum industry, potentially leading to increased production and job opportunities in the region.
See More
