US10Y Overview

Satirical Predictions: TS Lombard's Dario Perkins and Alexandros Xenofontos present their annual "Things That Won't Happen" predictions, highlighting absurd scenarios that often end up coming true, including a reality show about control of the Federal Reserve.

K-Shaped Economy: Despite signs of recession, investors remain optimistic, but rising unemployment and declining consumer confidence lead to decreased spending, impacting corporate earnings and causing issues for Big Tech.

AI Capital Expenditure Boom: The AI sector continues to grow significantly, with data centers proliferating, yet only a few companies like Nvidia are profiting, raising concerns about the sustainability of such investments.

Market Signals and Risks: Analysts suggest monitoring specific signals for market trends, with a cautious outlook for the S&P 500 in 2026, indicating a potential 8-10% chance of a stock market crash.

U.S. Treasury Yields Rise: On Friday, U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield at 4.145%, the 2-year at 3.47%, and the 30-year at 4.83%, as investors reacted to recent inflation data.

Inflation Data Impact: A lower-than-expected inflation rate of 2.7% for November has led to speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a 56.8% chance of a reduction in March being priced in by traders.

U.S. Treasury Yields: Treasury yields fell on Thursday, with the 10-year yield at 4.135%, the 2-year at 3.464%, and the 30-year at 4.818%, as investors awaited key inflation data.

Upcoming Inflation Data: The consumer price index (CPI) report, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, is the first since the recent government shutdown, with expectations of a 3.1% annual inflation rate.

Impact on Monetary Policy: Economists suggest that keeping inflation in the twos could strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025, as indicated by José Torres from Interactive Brokers.

Additional Economic Reports: Investors are also looking forward to the weekly jobless claims report and existing home sales data, which are due soon.

U.S. Treasury Yields Rise: Treasury yields increased on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield at 4.174% and the 2-year yield at 3.508%, as investors assessed recent economic data and awaited upcoming inflation figures.

Job Market Insights: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in payrolls by 105,000 in October and an increase of 64,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021.

Market Sentiment: Bob Elliott, CEO of Unlimited Funds, expressed that the slowing economy has dampened market hopes, suggesting that it may be prudent to shift investments from stocks to fixed income as the year concludes.

Anticipation of Inflation Data: Investors are closely watching for the consumer price index reading for November, which could further influence market dynamics.

Treasury Yields Decline: U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield at 4.168%, the 2-year at 3.497%, and the 30-year at 4.846%, as investors awaited key economic data releases.

Upcoming Economic Reports: Key reports expected include November nonfarm payrolls projected at 50,000, an unemployment rate steady at 4.4%, and October retail sales forecasted at 0.1%.

Inflation and Jobless Claims: The November Consumer Price Index report is anticipated to show a year-over-year inflation increase to 3.1%, alongside the release of weekly jobless claims data.

Market Uncertainties: Analysts highlight uncertainties regarding U.S. policy rates, influenced by factors such as tariff impacts on inflation and potential changes in unemployment rates.

U.S. Treasury Yields: Treasury yields fell on Monday, with the 10-year yield at 4.166%, the two-year at 3.509%, and the 30-year at 4.829%, as investors await economic data reports.

Upcoming Economic Reports: Key economic data to be released this week includes nonfarm payrolls, retail sales figures, and unemployment rates, following delays from the recent government shutdown.

Inflation Data: The consumer price index report for November, expected to show a yearly inflation increase to 3.1%, will be a significant focus, along with core inflation figures.

Additional Data Releases: Weekly initial jobless claims and November's existing home sales data are also scheduled for release later in the week.