SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.

Overview

The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture: while there are positive developments like project advancements and potential mine life extensions, there are concerns about high costs and lack of specific timelines for key projects. The Q&A section reveals uncertainties around project timelines and ongoing issues, which tempers the overall sentiment. The lack of clear guidance and high costs suggest a neutral impact on stock price.

Key Financial Performance

Free Cash Flow (Q4 2025) $106 million, a significant contribution to the full-year free cash flow of $252 million. Excluding changes in working capital, full-year free cash flow exceeded $400 million. This reflects strong operational performance and investment in growth projects.

Cash and Liquidity (End of 2025) $535 million in cash and over $1 billion in total liquidity. This strong position supports continued investment in growth initiatives and a $300 million share buyback program.

Net Income (Q4 2025) $181 million or $0.84 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $190 million or $0.88 per diluted share. This reflects strong sales and operational performance.

Gold Equivalent Ounces Produced (Full Year 2025) 447,000 ounces, exceeding the midpoint of guidance. This was achieved despite higher royalty costs and share-based compensation.

All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC, Full Year 2025) $1,923 per ounce, at the top end of guidance due to higher royalty costs and share-based compensation. Excluding Çöpler costs, AISC was comfortably within guidance.

Mineral Reserves (End of 2025) 11 million gold equivalent ounces, a 40% year-over-year increase. This was driven by the incorporation of CC&V and Hod Maden into consolidated totals and other minor impacts.

Puna Operations (Q4 2025) Produced 2.1 million ounces of silver at an AISC of $18.39 per ounce. Full-year AISC was $14.24 per ounce, slightly better than guidance, contributing over $250 million in mine site free cash flow.

CC&V Operations (Full Year 2025) Produced 125,000 ounces of gold, exceeding the top-end guidance of 110,000 ounces. Generated over $200 million in mine site free cash flow, an exceptional outcome compared to the $100 million acquisition cost.

Marigold Operations (Q4 2025) Produced 43,000 ounces of gold at an AISC of $2,089 per ounce. This was the strongest production period for Marigold in 2025.

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Operating Highlights

Hod Maden Development Project: Highlighted as a high-quality copper and gold project in Türkiye with significant scale and best-in-class grades. Expected to generate $328 million in annual free cash flow at consensus metal prices, with potential to increase to $500 million annually at higher gold prices. Construction decision pending, with a 2.5- to 3-year construction period anticipated.

Cripple Creek and Victor (CC&V) Mine: Delivered strong results, exceeding full-year guidance and generating over $200 million in mine site free cash flow in 2025. A 12-year life-of-mine plan with an $824 million NPV was highlighted.

Puna Operations: Exceeded production guidance for the third consecutive year, setting records for tonnes processed. Generated over $250 million in mine site free cash flow in 2025.

Share Buyback Program: Announced a $300 million share buyback program, reestablishing a key component of the capital allocation framework.

Free Cash Flow Generation: Generated more than $100 million in free cash flow in Q4 2025, with $252 million for the full year. Excluding working capital changes, free cash flow exceeded $400 million.

Liquidity Position: Ended 2025 with $535 million in cash and over $1 billion in liquidity, supporting growth initiatives and share buybacks.

Growth Investments: Committed substantial capital investment in 2026 to advance growth opportunities, including leach pad expansions and exploration at Marigold and CC&V.

Portfolio Expansion: Focused on integrating Buffalo Valley and New Millennium projects into Marigold's TRS and advancing opportunities at Puna and Seabee for long-term growth.

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Risk or Challenges

Çöpler mine care and maintenance costs: The Çöpler mine is not in operation, and the company continues to incur cash care and maintenance costs of $20 million to $25 million per quarter, which could impact overall financial performance.

Marigold mine production schedule adjustments: The production schedule at Marigold has been updated due to ore blending requirements and increased gold prices leading to pit expansions. This has changed the production schedule, potentially impacting short-term operational efficiency.

Hod Maden project funding and execution risks: The Hod Maden project requires a remaining investment of $470 million, with a 2.5- to 3-year construction period. There are risks associated with funding, construction delays, and execution challenges.

Seabee mine operational challenges: Seabee mine is focusing on underground development to improve stope availability, with production expected to be 60% weighted to the second half of 2026. This could lead to higher costs and lower production in the short term.

Puna mine cost pressures: Puna mine's all-in sustaining costs are expected to range between $20 to $22 per ounce in 2026, which is higher than previous years, potentially impacting profitability.

Capital expenditure requirements: The company has committed substantial capital investments across its portfolio in 2026, including leach pad expansions and exploration projects, which could strain financial resources.

Regulatory and geopolitical risks at Hod Maden: Hod Maden is located in northeastern Türkiye, which may expose the project to regulatory and geopolitical risks that could impact its development and operations.

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Guidance & Outlook

Free Cash Flow Generation: The company expects material free cash flow generation to continue in 2026, supported by strong financial results and liquidity.

Share Buyback Program: The Board has approved a share buyback of up to $300 million, reflecting confidence in the company's valuation and financial position.

Hod Maden Development Project: The project is expected to generate average annual free cash flow of $328 million at consensus metal prices, with a potential increase to $500 million annually at $4,900 gold price. Construction is anticipated to take 2.5 to 3 years upon a positive decision.

2026 Production Guidance: The company expects to produce between 450,000 and 535,000 gold equivalent ounces across its operations, with all-in sustaining costs ranging from $2,360 to $2,440 per ounce.

Capital Expenditures: Total gross spend is expected to total $150 million in 2026, primarily for leach pad expansions, exploration, and resource development. Hod Maden capital expenditures are projected at up to $15 million per month.

Marigold Mine: Production is expected to range between 170,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold in 2026, with significant investments in fleet and process improvements to support future growth.

CC&V Mine: Production is forecasted at 125,000 to 150,000 ounces of gold in 2026, with costs aligned to the technical report summary. The mine has potential for long-term production extensions.

Seabee Mine: Production is expected to be 60,000 to 70,000 ounces of gold in 2026, with a focus on underground development and exploration at Porky and Santoy.

Puna Operations: Silver production is projected at 6.25 million to 7 million ounces in 2026, with ongoing exploration and potential for extended operations beyond 2028.

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Shareholder Return Plan

Share Buyback Program: The company announced a share buyback program of up to $300 million, approved by the Board. This decision is based on the belief that the current share price does not reflect the full value of the company's portfolio. Share buybacks have been a key component of the company's capital allocation framework in the past. Between 2021 and 2024, the company repurchased 20 million shares at an average price of $15.76 per share. This historical approach, combined with the new program, reiterates the company's commitment to enhancing shareholder value.

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Key Q&A

Q:Can I start with Marigold, please? Just looking at the 21 million to 23 million tonnes stacked at 0.4 gram a tonne and 0.35 in Q4. My math that gets me to the top end of guidance. So maybe just a little bit more color here. Like is there a bit of conservatism baked into the guidance range of 170 to 200?

A:The guidance is a good indication of what will be delivered this year. The updated forward schedule includes blending requirements and a different stacking plan.

Q:Looking at the tech report, like I know it's old now, but the next 2 years, it had 0.3 gram a tonne. But given commentary before, like should we expect next year's grade incrementally higher versus this year? And then 2027 to 2028, just clarifying, like should we be looking at a stacking grade of high 0.4 to low 5s potentially, given the commentary before about keeping the sort of medium-term outlook unchanged?

A:Across 5 years, the plan is in line. There is a reschedule of the mine due to metal prices, growth in pet sizes, and additional haulage. Buffalo Valley and further upgrades are also being incorporated, and a new technical report will outline the updated profiles.

Q:That referenced 5 years, what is that exactly, sorry? Like if I look at the tech report average 5 years from today, it's 235,000 ounces per annum. Like what is that reference 5 years you're speaking to?

A:The reference includes blending requirements, upgraded ore body knowledge, and shifts in the mine plan to avoid sterilizing future opportunities. Buffalo Valley and New Millennium are also included, and a new technical report will outline the profiles over the next 12 months.

Q:For Puna, what silver prices do you sort of need at a minimum to go beyond 2028? Like it's 70 ounces or higher? Could we be talking well into the 2030s potential? Or is it a bit too early and dependent still on Cortaderas success?

A:Cortaderas and other opportunities like Chinchillas and Molina are being explored. Work is underway, and silver prices support the potential for extending operations into the future.

Q:Is there any kind of timeline that we can expect in terms of SSR Mining coming to a construction decision for Hod Maden? And if you can't give us a timeline, could you maybe talk about the different factors that you will consider before making such a decision?

A:Work on the ground continues with early earthworks, creek diversions, civil works, and road access tunnels. A project decision will follow the review process with partners, but no specific timeline was provided.

Q:I noticed that the guidance to 6.25 million to 7 million ounces for Puna is slightly lower than 7 million to 8 million ounces highlighted back in the August 2025 study for 2026. Could you maybe talk a little bit about that?

A:The timing of ounces has changed due to additional mining at Chinchillas. Production levels are expected to stay higher for longer, with some ounces shifting to 2027 or 2028.

Q:At Marigold, could you maybe explain to me durable versus nondurable ore and blending? I'm not fully appreciating the sort of the technical aspects behind it.

A:Durable and nondurable ore blending is based on fines content and heap height, which affects solution transfer. Blending ensures optimum recovery and prevents issues like heap binding, which occurred in late 2022 and early 2023.

Q:I see that you're still using fairly conservative numbers for your MRMR estimate $1,700 an ounce for reserves at Marigold. What would a higher gold price assumption do to what you can do at the ore body? Could that be incorporated into this new sort of technical report that could come out in 12 to 18 months' time?

A:The focus is on completing growth studies rather than adjusting gold price assumptions. A reevaluation of gold price sensitivity may coincide with the new technical report, which will include Buffalo Valley and New Millennium.

Q:The fine at Marigold, looks like blending is working. Is this issue now behind us? Or are we still expecting to see this issue linger into Q1?

A:Fines will continue to be encountered in the future, but blending requirements have been incorporated into mine plans to handle this issue effectively.

Q:Drilling has been pretty successful at Cortaderas. Are you looking to release any sort of a new mine plan for Puna in the near term, including Cortaderas as well as Chinchillas?

A:Additions to the mine life may come from extensions at Chinchillas and Molina. A new technical report may be considered in the future, depending on the progress of technical work.

Q:Currently, CC&V holds 4.8 million ounces in M&I. What's the plan there to accelerate these ounces into the mine plan and improve the production profile of CC&V? Is this just the permits? Is it more infrastructure that needs to be allocated?

A:The mine extension depends on the success of the amendment for approval, which allows for pad expansions. Opportunities for resource conversion may require another expansion permit in the future.

Q:Any sort of progress at Çöpler that we can kind of put our finger on or any sort of updates that you're looking to provide in the term future on Çöpler?

A:Discussions with government authorities are ongoing. Activities at the site focus on care and maintenance to maintain plant integrity for a potential start-up.

Q:For Hod Maden, as we're looking forward to this formal construction decision and I see that in the interim, you're looking at maybe spend on the order of about $15 million per month, should we pencil that into our model like beginning as of January 1, I think? Or should we wait until a construction decision?

A:The spending is for early site works already in progress, such as tunneling and civil works. This spending can be included in the model, and guidance will be updated once the construction decision is made.

Q:At Marigold, there has been a sizable increase in sustaining CapEx in '26. Is this spend to be onetime in '26? Or should we also be modeling maybe a little bit higher CapEx going forward in the next '27, '28 years?

A:The increase in sustaining CapEx in 2026 is due to fleet replacements and plant upgrades. Some replacements were accelerated for value optimization, but this is not expected to be a recurring increase.

Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses

A:Management avoided providing a direct timeline for the construction decision at Hod Maden, stating that the review process with partners is ongoing. Additionally, they did not provide specific details on the progress at Çöpler, only mentioning ongoing discussions with government authorities.

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Earnings Word Cloud

The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call

SSRM Transcript

SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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The earnings call presents a mixed picture. Positive elements include strong free cash flow, substantial liquidity, and optimistic Q4 expectations from Marigold. However, challenges such as Çöpler's restart delays, operational issues at Seabee, and permitting at CC&V present risks. The Q&A reveals management's focus on addressing these issues but lacks definitive timelines, particularly for Çöpler. The company's strategic focus on organic growth and disciplined M&A is promising but lacks immediate catalysts. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, with potential for slight positive movement if operational issues are resolved efficiently.

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The earnings call reflects mixed sentiments. Strong financial performance and production improvements are positive, but uncertainties like the Çöpler mine restart and increased costs at Çöpler and Marigold temper optimism. The Q&A section highlights management's cautious communication, particularly around timelines, which adds to market uncertainty. Despite strong cash flow and liquidity, the lack of definitive guidance on key issues suggests a neutral outlook for stock price movement over the next two weeks.

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The earnings call presents a mixed picture. While there is a positive outlook with a 10% production increase and continued free cash flow generation, challenges such as high ASIC, regulatory issues, and operational risks at Copler persist. The Q&A section reveals management's uncertainty and lack of detailed guidance on key projects, adding to market apprehension. The absence of clear guidance on Cripple Creek and Victor further dampens sentiment. Overall, the mixed signals and unresolved risks lead to a neutral outlook for the stock price in the short term.

SSRM Slides

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SSRM Report

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