SAFE Should I Buy
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Safehold Inc (SAFE) is not a strong buy for a beginner investor with a long-term horizon at this time. While the technical indicators show some bullish momentum, the lack of recent positive news, hedge fund selling, analyst downgrades, and muted growth prospects make it prudent to hold off on investing in this stock for now.
The MACD is positive and expanding, indicating bullish momentum. The RSI is neutral at 75.404, and the stock is trading above key moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting a bullish trend. The current price is near resistance levels (R1: 16.449), which may limit immediate upside potential.
The company reported YoY growth in revenue (6.53%), net income (7.05%), EPS (8.33%), and gross margin (0.60%) in Q4 2025, indicating solid financial performance.
Hedge funds are aggressively selling the stock, with a 72888.36% increase in selling activity last quarter. Analysts have downgraded the stock, citing muted origination activity, elevated dividend payout ratio, pending litigation, and limited visibility on unlocking Caret value. No recent news or congress trading data to suggest positive momentum.
In Q4 2025, the company demonstrated modest growth with revenue increasing to $97.87 million (up 6.53% YoY), net income rising to $27.88 million (up 7.05% YoY), and EPS improving to 0.39 (up 8.33% YoY). Gross margin also increased slightly to 95.58%.
Recent analyst downgrades include Morgan Stanley lowering the rating to Underweight with a price target of $14 (down from $16) and Cantor Fitzgerald reducing the price target to $14 (down from $15). Analysts cite concerns over muted origination activity, elevated dividend payout ratio, and limited visibility on unlocking value.
