NLY Earnings

NLY reported its earnings on 2026-01-28, showcasing a revenue of 1.69B against an estimate of 469.00M, resulting in a 260.49% surprise. The EPS was 0.74, surpassing the expected 0.72 by 2.78%. The stock experienced a -1.03% price change on the earnings day and a -5.86% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following NLY's earnings announcement on 2026-01-28, the stock price moved by -1.03% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a -5.86% change. Historically, NLY's stock price tends to shift by an average of -0.21% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and 1.96% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2026/Q1, analysts estimate NLY's annual revenue to reach 593.05M, while the EPS is projected at 0.73. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised downward by -2.71% and EPS estimates revised downward by -0.33% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company's performance.

The correlation between NLY's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were revised downward by -2.71%, while EPS estimates moved revised downward by -0.33%. This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, NLY's stock price typically moves by -0.21% in the 10 days before its earnings and 1.96% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2026/Q1 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.73 and revenue of 593.05M.

The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with increased book value and net interest margins, alongside strategic growth in residential credit and MSR portfolios. Management's confidence in maintaining dividends and the potential for mid-teens returns further supports a positive outlook. However, some uncertainties in the macro environment and the unclear response on GSE portfolio caps suggest caution. Overall, the positive financial metrics and strategic positioning outweigh these concerns, indicating a likely positive stock price movement.