MODV Earnings

MODV reported its FY2025Q1 earnings on 2025-05-08, showcasing a revenue of 650.65M against an estimate of 644.87M, resulting in a 0.9% surprise. The EPS was -1.71, surpassing the expected -0.44 by -288.64%. The stock experienced a -13.33% price change on the earnings day and a -27.41% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following MODV's FY2025Q1 earnings announcement on 2025-05-08, the stock price moved by -13.33% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a -27.41% change. Historically, MODV's stock price tends to shift by an average of 13.85% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -6.62% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2025/Q2, analysts estimate MODV's annual revenue to reach 653.23M, while the EPS is projected at -0.03. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates unchanged by 0% and EPS estimates unchanged by 0% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company's performance.

The correlation between MODV's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were unchanged by 0%, while EPS estimates moved unchanged by 0%. This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, MODV's stock price typically moves by 13.85% in the 10 days before its earnings and -6.62% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q2 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of -0.03 and revenue of 653.23M.

The earnings call reveals several concerns: lowered 2024 EBITDA guidance, increased operational costs, and regulatory challenges impacting EBITDA. Despite some positive aspects like EPS beat and revenue growth, the uncertainty in cash flow and contract risks overshadow these. The Q&A highlights management's vague responses, particularly regarding Medicaid cuts and contract renewals. These factors, combined with the flat revenue and adjusted EBITDA, suggest a negative sentiment. The lack of a market cap limits precise impact prediction, but the overall sentiment points to a negative stock price movement in the range of -2% to -8%.