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The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. Positive aspects include product expansion, international growth, and a focus on retail engagement. However, management's unclear responses on key issues, such as detailed guidance on new product launches and future strategies, create uncertainty. The lack of focus on crypto and tokenization, along with increased expenses, tempers enthusiasm. Overall, these factors suggest a neutral sentiment for the stock price in the short term.
Total Net Revenue (Q4 2025) $125 million, a 52% year-over-year increase. This growth was attributed to elevated market volatility and increased volume and market share gains across core business lines.
Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 2025) $62 million, more than doubled year-over-year. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 1,400 basis points to 50%, driven by operational efficiency and scaling.
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Q4 2025) $0.52, reflecting strong financial performance and operational efficiency.
Total Net Revenue (Full Year 2025) $431 million, a 56% year-over-year increase. This growth was driven by elevated market volatility and strategic initiatives.
Adjusted EBITDA (Full Year 2025) $199 million, more than doubled year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 1,600 basis points to 46%, reflecting efficient scaling and growth initiatives.
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Full Year 2025) $1.82, showcasing strong financial performance and operational efficiency.
Options Segment Net Revenue (Q4 2025) $107 million, a 46% year-over-year increase. This was driven by a market share increase to 18.2% (up from 15.9%) and a 46% year-over-year increase in average daily volume to 11.1 million contracts.
Equities Segment Net Revenue (Q4 2025) $6 million, up from $2 million in the prior year period. This increase was primarily due to higher net transaction fees from improved pricing.
Futures Segment Net Revenue (Q4 2025) $5 million, compared to $6 million in the prior year period. The decrease was due to lower listings revenues and decreased transaction fees, partially offset by the elimination of expenses related to CME Globex.
International Segment Net Revenue (Q4 2025) $6 million, compared to $1 million in the prior year period. The increase was primarily due to the acquisition of TISE in June 2025.
Launch of MIAX Futures Onyx: Introduced a high-performance proprietary trading and clearing platform with state-of-the-art risk management capabilities.
Bloomberg Index Futures products: Plan to launch B100 and B500 Futures in Q2 2026, focusing on retail size contracts to meet retail broker demand.
New Monday and Wednesday short-term options: Listed in 9 actively traded options classes, targeting retail and institutional participants.
Acquisition of TISE: Expanded international footprint and operational synergies with BSX.
Strategic sale of MIAXdx: Sold 90% to Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group, retaining 10% equity stake for access to prediction markets.
Improved rate structure in equities: Achieved breakeven adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025.
Technology investments: Enhanced MIAX Sapphire Exchange and new platforms for MIAX Futures and BSX.
Focus on regulatory landscape: Exploring opportunities for new products and services.
Collaboration with industry leaders: Strategic alignment with Robinhood and Susquehanna to offer innovative trading products.
Market Volatility: While elevated market volatility has been favorable for MIAX in 2025, it is driven by unpredictable factors such as geopolitics, domestic policy, and AI investment cycles. This creates uncertainty in sustaining such favorable conditions.
Regulatory Landscape: Although the regulatory environment is seen as an opportunity, it also poses risks due to potential changes or challenges in compliance requirements across multiple jurisdictions.
Technology Investments: The company is heavily investing in technology platforms and enhancements, which increases operational costs and risks if these investments do not yield the expected returns or face delays, as seen with the rescheduling of the Bloomberg Index Futures launch.
Dependence on Strategic Partnerships: The strategic sale of MIAXdx to Robinhood and Susquehanna creates dependency on these partners for the success of prediction markets, which could pose risks if the partnership does not perform as expected.
Operational Costs: Increased headcount and technology costs to support growth initiatives are driving up operational expenses, which could impact profitability if revenue growth does not keep pace.
Market Share Growth: While the company aims to expand its market share, balancing this growth with healthy revenue per contract (RPC) levels remains a challenge.
Futures Segment Performance: The Futures segment experienced a decline in revenue due to lower listings and decreased transaction fees, highlighting a potential area of underperformance.
International Operations: While international operations are growing, maximizing operational and revenue synergies across TISE and BSX remains a challenge.
2026 Adjusted Operating Expenses: Expected to range between $265 million and $275 million, representing a 13% to 18% increase over full year 2025 or a 6% to 10% increase from annualized Q4 2025.
2026 Share-Based Compensation Expense: Expected to range between $27 million and $30 million, reflecting a decrease due to IPO-related accelerations, partially offset by new 2026 grants.
2026 Capital Expenditures (CapEx): Expected to range between $40 million and $45 million, including capitalization of internally developed software.
2026 Depreciation and Amortization: Expected to range between $33 million and $38 million.
2026 Effective Tax Rate: Expected to range between 27% and 29% on adjusted earnings, following the release of deferred tax valuation allowance during 2026.
Options Market Growth: Anticipated elevated volatility throughout 2026 driven by geopolitics, domestic policy, political dynamics, tariff impacts, and the evolving AI investment cycle. Growth in Monday and Wednesday short-term expirations in single stocks is expected to contribute to volume growth.
New Product Launches: Bloomberg Index Futures products (B100 and B500 Futures) are planned for launch in Q2 2026, with retail size contracts introduced first to meet retail broker demand.
Technology Enhancements: Additional functionality enhancements for the MIAX Sapphire trading floor are planned for the first half of 2026 to support floor broker community needs.
Market Share Expansion: Opportunities to expand market share on the MIAX Sapphire trading floor and through increased activity in short-term weekly options, improving IPO pipeline, and structured products and ETFs.
International Operations: Focus on maximizing operational and revenue synergies across TISE and BSX businesses to optimize international footprint.
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The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. Positive aspects include product expansion, international growth, and a focus on retail engagement. However, management's unclear responses on key issues, such as detailed guidance on new product launches and future strategies, create uncertainty. The lack of focus on crypto and tokenization, along with increased expenses, tempers enthusiasm. Overall, these factors suggest a neutral sentiment for the stock price in the short term.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance, with significant margin improvement, increased adjusted earnings, and revenue growth in key segments. Although there are concerns about unclear timelines for new products, the company's focus on capturing market share and technology-driven growth is promising. The positive sentiment is reinforced by the Q&A insights, indicating potential for further expansion and high incremental margins. Despite some uncertainties, the overall outlook is favorable, suggesting a likely positive stock price movement.
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