Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call shows mixed signals. While there are positive aspects like revenue growth and plans for expansion, concerns remain about high interest rates, taxes, and a lack of specific guidance on investments and new product launches. The Q&A reveals uncertainties, particularly around Hepsiburada's investments and the $300 million Rabobank initiative. The neutral sentiment reflects balanced positive long-term strategies and immediate concerns, with no strong catalyst for a significant stock price movement in the short term.
Key Financial Performance
Net Income Grew 18% year-over-year without external factors like smartphone sales reductions, tax changes, and high interest rates. Including these factors, consolidated net profit grew around 10%.
Monthly Transactions per Active Consumer Reached 77, indicating high consumer engagement.
Dividend Proposal Proposed dividend of KZT 850 per ADS due to strong cash generation.
TPV Growth in Payments (Kazakhstan) 14% year-over-year in Q4 and 19% for FY 2025, driven by consistent transaction volume trends.
Revenue Growth in Payments (Kazakhstan) 7% in Q4 and 12% for FY 2025, slightly lower due to take rate dilution from lower take rate products like Kaspi Pay and Kaspi B2B.
Net Income Growth in Payments (Kazakhstan) 4% in Q4 and 13% for FY 2025, impacted by costs related to the launch and scaling of Alaqan.
GMV Growth in Marketplace (Kazakhstan) 12% in Q4 and 19% for FY 2025, slightly below guidance due to smartphone sales decline.
Purchases Growth in Marketplace (Kazakhstan) 34% in Q4 and 35% for FY 2025, showing strong demand.
Take Rate in Marketplace (Kazakhstan) Reached all-time highs due to advertising and delivery services.
E-Commerce GMV Growth (Kazakhstan) 9% in Q4 and 16% for FY 2025, impacted by smartphone sales decline. Excluding smartphones, growth was 27%.
Advertising Revenue Growth in E-Commerce (Kazakhstan) 45% in Q4 and 64% for FY 2025, driven by new advertising products.
E-Grocery GMV Growth (Kazakhstan) 53% for FY 2025, making it the fastest-growing e-commerce segment.
Net Income Growth in Marketplace (Kazakhstan) Down 7% in Q4 but up 6% for FY 2025, affected by smartphone sales and higher delivery costs for low-ticket items.
TFV Growth in Fintech (Kazakhstan) 4% in Q4 and 13% for FY 2025, driven by merchant and micro business financing.
Loan Portfolio Growth in Fintech (Kazakhstan) 27% in Q4 and 31% for FY 2025.
Savings and Deposits Growth in Fintech (Kazakhstan) 16% in Q4 and 18% for FY 2025.
Revenue Growth in Fintech (Kazakhstan) 19% in Q4 and 20% for FY 2025.
Net Income Growth in Fintech (Kazakhstan) 4% in Q4 and 9% for FY 2025, impacted by higher interest rates, taxes, and reserve requirements.
Purchases Growth in Hepsiburada (Turkey) 19% in Q4, showing improved consumer engagement.
Revenue Growth in Hepsiburada (Turkey) 18% in Q4 and 13% for FY 2025, driven by take rate improvement and delivery revenue growth.
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Operating Highlights
Pay-by-palm (Kaspi Alaqan): Launched in under 90 days with unprecedented adoption. Almost 0.5 million customers in Almaty registered, 6,000 merchants accepting payments, and 10% of transactions in connected stores using this method. Scaling city by city in Kazakhstan.
E-Grocery: Fastest-growing e-commerce business for Kaspi, scaling across Kazakhstan.
Turkey Expansion: Focus on growing consumer engagement and orders in Turkey through Hepsiburada. Orders grew 19% in Q4 2025, with engaged consumers increasing by 29%. Next-day shipping coverage improved from 47% to 63%.
Consumer Engagement: Achieved 77 monthly transactions per active consumer, a world-class indicator.
Brand Strength: Kaspi is the #1 consumer brand in multiple categories in Kazakhstan, with significant margins over competitors.
E-Commerce Focus: E-commerce is a key growth driver, with plans to expand in Kazakhstan and Turkey. Emphasis on delivery, advertising, and value-added services.
Hepsiburada Strategy: Targeting EBITDA breakeven in 2026 for Hepsiburada while continuing targeted investments to grow engaged consumers and frequency of purchases.
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Risk or Challenges
Smartphone Sales Reductions and Supply Shortages: The company faced reductions in smartphone sales and supply shortages, which negatively impacted net income growth and marketplace GMV, particularly in the e-Commerce segment.
High Interest Rate Environment: The high interest rate environment in 2025 increased costs for the company, impacting profitability, particularly in the Fintech segment.
Tax Changes and Regulatory Requirements: Changes in tax policies and increased national bank reserve requirements added financial pressure, reducing net income growth in the Fintech segment.
Marketplace GMV Growth Challenges: Marketplace GMV growth was hindered by the decline in smartphone sales, which remained a significant issue throughout 2025.
Delivery Cost Pressures: Growth in small-ticket items with higher delivery costs diluted profitability in the marketplace segment. The company raised delivery prices in 2026 to address this issue.
Hepsiburada Profitability Challenges: The Hepsiburada business in Turkey is operating at EBITDA breakeven, requiring ongoing investments to improve consumer engagement and operational metrics, which could delay profitability.
Economic and Market Conditions in Turkey: The company faces challenges in scaling its Turkey operations due to economic uncertainties and market conditions, impacting consumer engagement and growth.
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Guidance & Outlook
Dividend Proposal: Kaspi.kz is proposing a dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, subject to shareholder approval, reflecting strong cash generation and a focus on long-term value creation.
Pay-by-Palm (Kaspi Alaqan) Expansion: Kaspi Alaqan, the pay-by-palm service, has achieved significant adoption in Almaty with 0.5 million customers and 6,000 merchants. The company plans to scale this service city by city across Kazakhstan in 2026, replacing old networks with new devices.
E-Commerce Growth Focus: E-Commerce is expected to be a key growth driver in Kazakhstan and Turkey. The company plans to expand e-Grocery, delivery, and advertising services, which are high-margin and scalable. Merchant and consumer engagement will be prioritized to drive growth.
Turkey (Hepsiburada) Strategy: Kaspi.kz aims to manage Hepsiburada around EBITDA breakeven in 2026 while continuing targeted investments to grow engaged consumers and improve delivery and payment options. The focus is on increasing frequency of purchases and consumer engagement.
Marketplace GMV Growth: Marketplace GMV growth is expected to be around 20% in 2026, driven by e-Commerce in both Kazakhstan and Turkey. Smartphone category recovery is anticipated to normalize growth in the first half of 2026.
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Kaspi.kz provides adjusted EBITDA guidance of around 5% growth for 2026, including operations in Kazakhstan and Turkey. This guidance does not assume any reduction in interest rates.
Interest Rate Impact: The guidance for 2026 does not include any assumptions of interest rate reductions, although a medium-term decrease in rates could materially benefit the company.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Dividend Proposal: Kaspi.kz is proposing a dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, subject to shareholder approval. This decision is based on the strong cash generation enabled by the company's business model.
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Key Q&A
Q:Could this be a year of peak losses for Hepsi in Turkey, or will more investment be required to improve selection and delivery?
A:The company is managing the Turkey business around EBITDA breakeven, focusing on investments in consumer engagement, faster delivery, technology, and data organization. They are not focused on the size of losses but on creating a more valuable business. Investments will continue if they yield consumer engagement and frequency.
Q:What does the $300 million investment in Rabobank entail, and what products can be expected?
A:The $300 million investment includes capital and is aimed at launching a wider range of financial products for consumers and merchants, especially in savings and lending. The company is awaiting regulatory approval and will provide updates on specific products in due course.
Q:What is Hepsi's stance on e-Grocery offerings in Turkey, especially in light of competition from Uber, Getir, and Trendyol Go?
A:Hepsi is focused on e-Grocery for household needs rather than quick commerce. They are guided by consumer data and currently have no intention to move into quick commerce. Their focus remains on growing engaged consumers and enabling assortments based on consumer needs.
Q:Is there a specific indication that this year will be peak investment in Turkey?
A:There is no specific forecast or guidance on whether this year will be peak investment. Investments will continue if they yield consumer engagement and frequency. The company is building delivery capabilities and testing elements to increase order frequency.
Q:What is the competitive environment in Turkey, and how does Hepsi perceive competitors' behavior?
A:Hepsi observes competitive dynamics respectfully but focuses on delivering high-quality products and services to increase engaged customers and order frequency. They prioritize consumers and merchants over competition.
Q:Can you provide insights into the EBITDA guidance and bottom-line development, including factors like regulatory changes and taxation?
A:The company has declared a sustainable dividend of KZT 850 per share for this year. Factors affecting the bottom line include no reduction in interest rates, higher taxes in Kazakhstan, and increased National Bank reserve requirements. These factors will weigh on the bottom line this year, with potential upside next year if interest rates decrease.
Q:Is the guidance on Slide 19 fully pro forma, and does it include Hepsiburada?
A:Yes, the 2025 numbers include Hepsiburada. However, the comparison includes approximately 12 months of Kaspi and 11 months of Hepsiburada due to the acquisition timing.
Q:Why is the company focusing on frequency of use rather than the total number of users in Turkey?
A:The focus is on engaged consumers who repeatedly interact and buy, leading to lower marketing and operating costs. This approach has proven successful in Kazakhstan and is expected to work similarly in Turkey. The company also plans to build additional services around consumer needs.
Q:What is driving the expected slowdown in TFV growth to 5%?
A:The slowdown in TFV growth is linked to GMV growth in Kazakhstan, which is driven by lower-ticket items like groceries that are less credit-sensitive. Consumer electronics, a mature category, contributes less to growth.
Q:How does the growth of e-Commerce versus m-Commerce impact the consolidated take rate?
A:E-Commerce has a higher take rate (12.7%) compared to m-Commerce (around 10%) due to value-added services like delivery and advertising. However, e-Commerce is more operations-heavy, leading to lower immediate profitability despite higher take rates.
Q:What are the company's views on Agentic AI or Agentic Commerce and partnerships with large language models like ChatGPT?
A:The company is developing in-house virtual assistants to help merchants and consumers. They are already applying these technologies internally but believe the topic deserves a separate discussion.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing specific forecasts or guidance on whether this year will be peak investment in Turkey. They also did not elaborate on future products related to the $300 million Rabobank investment, citing a preference not to discuss future products. Additionally, they did not provide detailed insights into partnerships or plans regarding Agentic AI or large language models, suggesting it as a topic for a separate discussion.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Commerce merchant
Ferguson
Hepsiburada Turkey
Hepsiburada consumer
Hepsiburada purchase
adoption
brand
class
consumer Commerce
consumer Hepsiburada
consumer behavior
consumer engagement
consumer number
consumer product
customer
delivery advertising
dividend
factor
focus
frequency purchase
improvement
margin
merchant payment
metric
network device
number consumer
number order
palm
payment Alaqan
payment option
penetration
personalization
population city
quality speed
relationship
search
service Commerce
testament
world
KSPI Transcript
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown3-2
The earnings call shows mixed signals. While there are positive aspects like revenue growth and plans for expansion, concerns remain about high interest rates, taxes, and a lack of specific guidance on investments and new product launches. The Q&A reveals uncertainties, particularly around Hepsiburada's investments and the $300 million Rabobank initiative. The neutral sentiment reflects balanced positive long-term strategies and immediate concerns, with no strong catalyst for a significant stock price movement in the short term.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive11-10
The company shows strong growth in key areas like e-Grocery, advertising, and fintech, despite smartphone supply issues. The strategic expansion in Kazakhstan and Turkey, along with plans to resume shareholder returns, are positive indicators. While management avoided specifics on dividends and smartphone supply normalization, the overall sentiment is optimistic, especially with strong performance in non-smartphone segments and advertising growth.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown8-4
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong deposit growth and positive GMV and EBITDA growth, but challenges from high interest rates and a reduced GMV growth outlook. The Q&A reveals underpenetrated opportunities in Kazakhstan, but concerns about funding costs and unclear guidance on smartphone market recovery and capital deployment. These factors balance out to a neutral sentiment.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown5-12
The earnings call summary highlights several negative factors, including high interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainties, and a new government tax, all impacting profitability. Despite revenue growth, the lack of a share buyback program and increased risks, such as the higher cost of risk and loan-to-deposit ratio, add to the negative outlook. The Q&A further emphasizes macro uncertainties and unclear management responses. These factors, combined with no strategic plan update, suggest a likely negative stock price movement in the short term.
KSPI Report
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