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The company has shown strong financial performance with reduced net debt, strong cash position, and significant gold production. The positive outlook for Greenstone and Valentine mines, combined with exploration potential, further supports growth. The Q&A session revealed management's confidence in addressing regulatory concerns and strategic project development. Despite some uncertainty in G&A costs and Brazilian operations, the overall sentiment remains positive, with plans for shareholder returns and potential growth in dividends. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to experience a positive movement in the coming weeks.
Gold Production Record gold production of 922,000 ounces in 2025, with a 60% increase in Q4 production compared to Q1. This reflects progress at Greenstone and Valentine mines.
Net Debt Net debt reduced from approximately $1.4 billion in June 2025 to $75 million by the end of January 2026. This was achieved while completing construction and commissioning of Valentine.
Cash Position Exited 2025 with over $400 million in cash, providing financial flexibility for 2026.
Q4 Gold Production 247,024 ounces produced in Q4 2025, a strong finish to the year.
Gold Sales 242,392 ounces sold in Q4 2025 at a realized price of $4,060 per ounce.
Adjusted EBITDA $579 million in adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025.
Adjusted Net Income $272.9 million in adjusted net income for Q4 2025, equivalent to $0.35 per share.
Greenstone Mine Q4 Production Produced over 72,000 ounces in Q4 2025, a 29% increase over Q3, with improvements in mining rates, mill throughputs, and grade.
Valentine Mine Q4 Production Poured 23,207 ounces of gold in Q4 2025, its first quarter, with the plant averaging 90% of nameplate capacity.
Gold Production: Record gold production of 922,000 ounces in 2025, with Greenstone and Valentine mines ramping up production.
Valentine Gold Mine: Commissioning progress exceeded expectations with first gold achieved in September and commercial production declared in November.
Greenstone Gold Mine: Ramp-up progress with Q4 gold production 60% higher than Q1, achieving nameplate capacity for 30 consecutive days in December.
Gold Price: Encouraged by the strength of the gold price, which supports financial flexibility and growth.
Exploration Upside: Discovery of the Minotaur Zone and drilling plans for 2026, indicating long-term growth potential in the Valentine District.
Operational Efficiency: 30% reduction in all injury frequency rate and no material environmental events in 2025.
Cost Control: Maintained strict cost discipline with all-in sustaining costs guidance for 2026 between $1,750 and $1,850 per ounce.
Balance Sheet: Reduced net debt from $1.4 billion in June 2025 to $75 million by January 2026, with over $400 million in cash.
Capital Return Initiatives: Announced inaugural quarterly cash dividend of $0.015 per share and a share buyback of up to 5% of issued shares.
Phase 2 Expansion at Valentine: Feasibility study for expansion to increase throughput and production, with investment approval expected in Q2 2026.
Los Filos Asset Development: Continued engagement with host communities and governments to unlock long-term value.
Audit delays due to Calibre merger and asset sales: The audit process is taking longer than expected due to the Calibre merger, asset sales, and classifying Brazil as discontinuing operations. This could potentially delay financial reporting and impact investor confidence.
High all-in sustaining costs at Greenstone: Projected all-in sustaining costs for Greenstone in 2026 are between $1,750 and $1,850 per ounce, which are relatively high and could pressure margins if gold prices decline.
Operational ramp-up challenges at Greenstone and Valentine: Both Greenstone and Valentine mines are still ramping up to nameplate capacity, which poses risks of delays or underperformance in achieving production targets.
Regulatory and community engagement risks at Los Filos: The company is reliant on continued engagement with host communities and support from state and national governments to realize the full potential of the Los Filos asset. Any disruptions in these relationships could impact operations.
Exploration and expansion risks at Valentine: The feasibility study for Phase 2 expansion at Valentine is pending board approval, and there is a risk that the expansion may face delays or fail to meet expectations.
Gold Production at Greenstone: For 2026, production is anticipated to be between 250,000 to 300,000 ounces at all-in sustaining costs of $1,750 to $1,850 per ounce. Long-term objective is to establish life-of-mine production around 300,000 ounces annually.
Valentine Gold Mine Production: Valentine is expected to contribute 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold in 2026. Feasibility study for Phase 2 expansion to increase throughput to 4.5-5 million tonnes per year and production of over 200,000 ounces annually for the next decade is anticipated to be completed in Q2 2026.
Exploration at Valentine: 25,000 meters of drilling planned for 2026 to advance the Frank Zone. A new discovery, the Minotaur Zone, will have a 20,000-meter drill program starting in spring 2026, with potential for expansion.
Capital Return Initiatives: The company announced its inaugural quarterly cash dividend of $0.015 per share and plans a share buyback of up to 5% of issued and outstanding shares.
Operational and Financial Focus for 2026: Priorities include ramping up Greenstone and Valentine to nameplate capacity, disciplined capital allocation, sustaining investments, shareholder returns, and maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Los Filos Asset Development: Continued engagement with host communities and government support to realize the asset's full potential and unlock long-term value.
Quarterly Cash Dividend: The company announced its inaugural quarterly cash dividend of $0.015 per share.
Share Buyback Program: The company filed a notice of intent to initiate a share buyback of up to 5% of the issued and outstanding shares.
The company has shown strong financial performance with reduced net debt, strong cash position, and significant gold production. The positive outlook for Greenstone and Valentine mines, combined with exploration potential, further supports growth. The Q&A session revealed management's confidence in addressing regulatory concerns and strategic project development. Despite some uncertainty in G&A costs and Brazilian operations, the overall sentiment remains positive, with plans for shareholder returns and potential growth in dividends. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to experience a positive movement in the coming weeks.
The earnings call highlights strong production growth, improved mining rates, and cash flow, alongside strategic focus on deleveraging and portfolio rationalization. Positive developments at Greenstone and Valentine mines, and the Phase II expansion plan, suggest optimistic future prospects. Despite management's reluctance to provide specific cash flow details, analysts' sentiment remains positive, indicating confidence in the company's performance. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, likely in the positive range (2% to 8%).
The earnings call summary and Q&A reveal strong financial performance, with increased production and operational improvements. While there are some uncertainties, such as ongoing discussions with communities and legal matters, the overall sentiment is positive due to the merger's potential, improved mining rates, and cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on debt reduction and potential share buybacks further supports a positive outlook. Given the market cap, a positive stock price movement of 2% to 8% is likely over the next two weeks.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: record high gold production and planned debt reduction are positive, but ongoing issues at Los Filos, high costs, and a lack of immediate resolution for operational suspension are concerning. The Q&A reveals cautious optimism about Greenstone but highlights uncertainties. With a market cap of $2 billion, these factors suggest a neutral short-term stock price movement.
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