CWST Should I Buy
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Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner, long-term investor. While the company has shown strong revenue growth and operational improvements, its recent financial performance, insider selling trends, and technical indicators suggest caution. The stock's price is below key resistance levels, and there are no strong trading signals or catalysts to justify immediate action.
The stock's MACD is negative and contracting, RSI is neutral at 30.892, and moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The price is below the pivot level of 97.71, with support at 90.601 and resistance at 104.819. These indicators suggest a bearish trend.
Strong Q4 2025 revenue growth of 18% and five consecutive years of double-digit growth.
Nine acquisitions in 2025, adding $115 million in annualized revenues.
Operational improvements with automated trucks and landfill expansions, increasing capacity.
Management projects 2026 revenues between $1.97 billion and $1.99 billion, with adjusted EBITDA between $455 million and $465 million.
Net income dropped significantly in Q4 2025, down -151.50% YoY.
EPS dropped to -0.04, reflecting a -150.00% YoY decline.
Gross margin decreased to 16.36%, down -7.36% YoY.
Insider selling increased by 470.84% over the last month.
Hedge funds remain neutral, showing no significant trading trends.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 9.72% YoY to $469.05 million. However, net income dropped to -$2.51 million (-151.50% YoY), EPS declined to -0.04 (-150.00% YoY), and gross margin fell to 16.36% (-7.36% YoY).
Analysts have mixed views. JPMorgan and Barclays maintain neutral ratings with price targets of $110 and $101, respectively. Raymond James has a strong buy rating with a price target of $115, citing sustainable growth and margin opportunities. Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy with a $120 price target, highlighting operational improvements and synergies.
