Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Overview
The earnings call reflects strong financial metrics, including a significant increase in loan growth and deposits, and an improvement in the commercial portfolio's NPL ratio. The Q&A highlights optimistic guidance on loan growth and sectors being financed, as well as a strategic acquisition. Despite some concerns about consumer portfolio deterioration and unclear management responses, the overall sentiment is positive. The bank's capital adequacy and proposed 100% dividend payout also contribute positively. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to see a positive reaction in the range of 2% to 8%.
Key Financial Performance
Net Income (Q4 2025) ARS 100 billion, 26% (ARS 34.4 billion) lower than Q4 2024 due to restructuring expenses and provisions for severance payments.
Net Income (FY 2025) ARS 290.7 billion, 32% lower than FY 2024 due to restructuring expenses and provisions for severance payments.
Operating Income Before Expenses (Q4 2025) ARS 1.17 trillion, 39% (ARS 324.2 billion) higher than Q3 2025 and 9% (ARS 94.4 billion) higher than Q4 2024.
Net Operating Income Before Expenses (FY 2025) ARS 4.1 trillion, 33% lower than FY 2024 due to inflation adjustments and restructuring costs.
Provision for Loan Losses (Q4 2025) ARS 169.3 million, 243% (ARS 120 million) higher year-over-year due to increased loan defaults.
Net Interest Income (Q4 2025) ARS 836.5 billion, 19% (ARS 135.9 billion) higher year-over-year due to a 7% increase in interest income and a 1% decrease in interest expense.
Net Interest Income (FY 2025) ARS 3.1 trillion, 44% higher than FY 2024 due to an 8% increase in interest income and a 23% decrease in interest expense.
Interest Income (Q4 2025) ARS 1.4 billion, 30% (ARS 324.1 billion) higher year-over-year due to increased lending rates.
Interest Expense (Q4 2025) ARS 565.1 billion, 50% higher year-over-year due to increased deposit costs.
Loan Growth (Q4 2025) Total financing reached ARS 10.71 trillion, 40% (ARS 3.1 trillion) higher year-over-year due to increased peso and U.S. dollar financing.
Deposits (Q4 2025) Total deposits increased 24% (ARS 2.6 trillion) year-over-year, driven by a 17% increase in time deposits and a 5% increase in demand deposits.
Non-Performing Loans Ratio (Q4 2025) 3.87%, with commercial portfolio improving to 0.68% and consumer portfolio deteriorating to 5.23%.
Capital Adequacy Ratio (Q4 2025) 30.6%, with excess capital of ARS 3.6 trillion.
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Operating Highlights
Market Share in Private Sector Loans: Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans increased to 8.6% as of December 2025, up by 30 basis points compared to December 2024.
Market Share in Private Sector Deposits: Banco Macro's market share over private sector deposits increased to 7.9% as of December 2025, up by 90 basis points compared to December 2024.
Branch Network Reduction: Banco Macro reduced its branch network by 75 branches, from 519 in December 2024 to 444 in December 2025.
Headcount Reduction: Banco Macro reduced its headcount by 514 employees during fiscal year 2025.
Efficiency Ratio: The efficiency ratio improved to 38.7% in Q4 2025, compared to 46.5% in Q3 2025 and 39.4% in Q4 2024.
Restructuring Expenses: Banco Macro recorded ARS 82.9 billion in restructuring expenses in Q4 2025, related to early retirement plans and severance payment provisions.
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Risk or Challenges
Net Income Decline: Net income for fiscal year 2025 was 32% lower than in fiscal year 2024, indicating a significant decline in profitability.
Restructuring Expenses: The bank recorded ARS 82.9 billion in restructuring expenses related to early retirement plans and severance payments, which negatively impacted net income.
Provision for Loan Losses: Provision for loan losses increased by 243% year-on-year in Q4 2025 and 274% for fiscal year 2025, reflecting higher credit risk.
Inflation Impact: Higher inflation during Q4 2025 (7.86%) compared to Q3 2025 (5.97%) resulted in a net monetary position loss of ARS 277 billion, a 27% increase from the previous quarter.
Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): Consumer portfolio non-performing loans increased to 5.23% in Q4 2025 from 4.3% in Q3 2025, indicating deteriorating asset quality in this segment.
Interest Income Volatility: Income from government and private securities decreased by 58% in fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024, showing volatility in this revenue stream.
Branch and Workforce Reduction: The bank reduced its branch network by 75 branches and its workforce by 514 employees in fiscal year 2025, which could impact customer service and operational capacity.
Effective Tax Rate Increase: The effective income tax rate increased to 43.1% in fiscal year 2025 from 9.2% in 2024, significantly affecting net income.
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Guidance & Outlook
Net Income: In the fourth quarter 2025 Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS 100 billion, ARS 290.7 billion in fiscal year 2025 recurring from the loss posted in the previous quarter. The result was 26% or ARS 34.4 billion lower than the result posted in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Return on Equity and Assets: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the accumulated annualized return on average equity and accumulated annualized return on our assets were 5.1% and 1.4%, respectively. Excluding ARS 82.9 billion of nonrecurring expenses in the fourth quarter of 2025, net income would have totaled ARS 183 billion and ARS 393.7 billion in fiscal year 2025. And accumulated ROE and ROA would have been 6.6% and 1.8% respectively.
Operating Income: In the fourth quarter of 2025, operating income before general, administrative and personnel expenses, total of ARS 1.17 trillion, 39% or ARS 324.2 billion higher than in the third quarter of 2025 and 9% from ARS 94.4 billion higher than in the same period of last year.
Net Interest Income: In the quarter, net interest income totaled ARS 836.5 billion, 13% or ARS 96.4 billion higher than the third quarter of 2025 and 19% or ARS 135.9 billion higher year-on-year. This result is giving a 7% increase in interest income and a 1% decrease in interest expense. In fiscal year 2025, net interest income totaled ARS 3.1 trillion and was 44% higher than fiscal year 2024.
Interest Income: In the fourth quarter of 2025, interest income totaled ARS 1.4 billion and 7% from ARS 91.6 billion higher than third quarter 2025 up 30% or ARS 324.1 billion higher than the fourth quarter of 2024. In fiscal year 2025, interest income totaled ARS 5 trillion, 8% higher than fiscal year 2024.
Interest Expense: In the fourth quarter of 2025, interest expense totaled ARS 565.1 billion, decreasing 1% or ARS 4.8 billion compared to the previous quarter and 50% higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. In fiscal year 2025, interest expense totaled ARS 193 trillion, 23% lower than fiscal year 2024.
Loan Growth: In terms of loan growth, the bank's total financing reached ARS 10.71 trillion, decreasing 2% or ARS 211 billion quarter-on-quarter and increasing 40% or ARS 3.1 trillion year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, peso financing increased 2% or ARS 196.4 billion, while US dollar financing decreased 20% or $407 million. In fiscal year 2025 both peso financing and U.S. dollar financing increased 36% and 12% respectively.
Deposits: On the funding side, total deposits increased 8% or ARS 958.1 billion quarter-on-quarter totaling ARS 13.7 trillion and increased 24% or ARS 2.6 trillion year-on-year. Private sector deposits increased 11% or ARS 1.26 trillion quarter-on-quarter while public sector deposits decreased 33% or ARS 310.4 billion quarter-on-quarter.
Asset Quality: In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's non-performing to total financing ratio reached 3.87%. The coverage ratio, measured as total allowances under expected credit losses over non performing loans under central bank rules, reached 119.86%. Commercial portfolio non-performing loans improved 17 basis points down to 0.68% from 0.85% in the previous quarter while consumer portfolio non-performing loans deteriorated 93 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2025 up to 5.23% from 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025.
Capitalization: In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS 3.6 trillion, which represented a capital adequacy ratio of 30.6% and Tier 1 ratio of 30.6%. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets to total deposits ratio reached 73%.
Loan Growth: In terms of loan growth, the bank's total financing reached ARS 10.71 trillion, decreasing 2% or ARS 211 billion quarter-on-quarter and increasing 40% or ARS 3.1 trillion year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, peso financing increased 2% or ARS 196.4 billion, while US dollar financing decreased 20% or $407 million. In fiscal year 2025 both peso financing and U.S. dollar financing increased 36% and 12% respectively.
Deposits: On the funding side, total deposits increased 8% or ARS 958.1 billion quarter-on-quarter totaling ARS 13.7 trillion and increased 24% or ARS 2.6 trillion year-on-year. Private sector deposits increased 11% or ARS 1.26 trillion quarter-on-quarter while public sector deposits decreased 33% or ARS 310.4 billion quarter-on-quarter.
Capitalization: In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS 3.6 trillion, which represented a capital adequacy ratio of 30.6% and Tier 1 ratio of 30.6%. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets to total deposits ratio reached 73%.
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Shareholder Return Plan
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Key Q&A
Q:Is there an update on the soft guidance provided last month regarding loans, deposits, and ROE?
A:The guidance has been modified due to changes in macroeconomic variables. Real GDP growth for 2026 is now expected to be 2.8%-3%, and inflation is updated to 27%. Loan growth is expected at 20% in real terms, deposit growth at 6%, and adjusted ROE at 8%.
Q:What is the nature of the strong security gains observed?
A:The gains were attributed to a reversal of trends in the fourth quarter, with declining nominal and real interest rates and a rebound in local peso securities. This was a recovery from the weak performance in the third quarter due to election-related volatility.
Q:Why is there a widening gap between loans and deposits?
A:The gap is attributed to slower GDP growth and changes in savings behavior. The bank holds 24% of total assets in securities to finance the gap and expects real interest rates to remain slightly positive, limiting deposit growth.
Q:What are the early indicators for asset quality and cost of risk?
A:The speed of deterioration in the consumer portfolio has reduced, with cost of risk slightly below the third quarter. Stabilization is expected, with a forecasted cost of risk of 5.2% for 2026, down from 5.6% in 2025.
Q:What is the bank's view on the political landscape and upcoming reforms?
A:The government is focusing on labor and tax reforms, maintaining tight monetary and FX policies, and reducing inflation. The labor reform includes a provision favoring banks over fintech wallets for salary payments.
Q:How should trading gains from securities be modeled?
A:Trading gains depend on domestic inflation and wholesale rates. A stable environment will result in steady income, while volatility will cause fluctuations in bond gains.
Q:What is the outlook for risk-adjusted NIMs in 2026?
A:The fourth quarter of 2025 is a reasonable starting point. NIMs are expected to compress slightly to around 20% in 2026, with a corresponding slight reduction in cost of risk.
Q:What is the impact of restructuring costs on personnel and branches?
A:Restructuring costs in 2025 were ARS 82 billion, with ARS 36 billion benefiting 2026. Similar reductions in headcount and branches are expected in 2026, with restructuring costs impacting ROE by approximately 3 percentage points.
Q:What is the update on the acquisition of Personal Pay?
A:The acquisition of 50% of Personal Pay is aimed at developing a bank-as-a-service model. The bank is considering options for integrating the wallet with its services.
Q:What is the outlook for loan growth and sectors being financed?
A:Loan growth is expected at 20% in 2026, with a focus on energy, mining, and agribusiness sectors. The bank is leveraging its strong capital base to finance long-term projects.
Q:What is the outlook for NPLs and recurring OpEx growth in 2026?
A:NPLs are expected to stabilize at mid to low 3% levels, with cost of risk at 5.2%. Recurring OpEx growth will be managed through restructuring efforts.
Q:What is the bank's capital allocation strategy for 2026?
A:The bank plans to use excess capital for organic and inorganic growth, dividends, and potential buybacks. A 100% payout ratio is proposed for dividends, subject to Central Bank approval.
Q:What is the outlook for USD lending and regulatory changes?
A:The bank is prepared to expand USD lending if regulations allow. Currently, USD loans are limited to clients with dollar revenue streams, but the government is exploring regulatory changes.
Q:When is the ROE expected to return to high teens?
A:ROE is expected to reach mid-teens by 2028-2030, as restructuring benefits are fully realized and Argentina transitions to nominal reporting.
Q:What is the timing for improvements in NPLs and loan growth in 2026?
A:NPL improvements are expected in the second half of 2026. Loan growth will gradually increase throughout the year, with the first quarter being seasonally low.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing a clear timeline or specifics on when USD lending regulations might change, and the exact impact of restructuring costs on future savings was not detailed.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Chief Executive
Executive Officer
Instructions event
Instructions pleasure
Mr Chief
Mr Investor
Mr conference
Relations conference
conference sir
event Instructions
wwwmacrocomarrelacionesinversores Instructions
BMA Transcript
Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive3-2
The earnings call reflects strong financial metrics, including a significant increase in loan growth and deposits, and an improvement in the commercial portfolio's NPL ratio. The Q&A highlights optimistic guidance on loan growth and sectors being financed, as well as a strategic acquisition. Despite some concerns about consumer portfolio deterioration and unclear management responses, the overall sentiment is positive. The bank's capital adequacy and proposed 100% dividend payout also contribute positively. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to see a positive reaction in the range of 2% to 8%.
Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown12-1
The earnings call summary reveals several concerns: a rise in nonperforming loans, unexpected expenses, and poor bond portfolio performance. Despite optimistic loan and deposit growth forecasts, the Q&A section highlighted uncertainties, such as unclear management responses and no immediate buyback plans. The market may react negatively to the weak financial results, increased costs, and cautious outlook on returns. Given the mid-cap status of the company, these factors are likely to result in a stock price decrease of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown8-28
The earnings call highlights mixed signals: while there is strong loan growth and a robust capital position, the decrease in net income and rising non-performing loans, coupled with management's cautious outlook on NIMs and asset quality, balance out the positives. The Q&A reveals concerns about volatility and rising interest rates, which could pressure margins and asset quality. However, optimistic loan and deposit growth guidance provide a counterbalance. Given the market cap of $3.7 billion, the stock is likely to see a neutral movement in the next two weeks.
Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown5-29
The earnings call reveals a significant drop in net income and operating income, alongside increased loan loss provisions. Despite some positive aspects like deposit growth and capital adequacy, the overall financial performance is weak with declining margins and income. The Q&A further highlights concerns with lowered ROE guidance and unclear responses on M&A opportunities. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity, leading to a predicted negative stock price movement of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
BMA Report
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