ARES Should I Buy
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Ares Management Corp (ARES) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. The technical indicators are bearish, options data reflects negative sentiment, and the company's recent financial performance shows significant declines in net income and EPS. While analysts maintain generally positive ratings, the stock faces headwinds from systemic risks in the private credit market and broader macroeconomic concerns. Given the user's impatience and unwillingness to wait for optimal entry points, holding off on investing in ARES is recommended until clearer positive signals emerge.
The technical indicators for ARES are bearish. The MACD histogram is negative (-0.797) and contracting, the RSI is neutral at 30.856, and the moving averages show a bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading close to its support level (S1: 115.646) but below the pivot point (125.752), indicating weakness.
Analysts generally maintain positive ratings with several 'Buy' and 'Outperform' recommendations. The stock is down over 30% from its December peak, which some analysts view as a compelling entry point. Revenue growth in Q4 2025 was strong, increasing by 27.68% YoY.
The private credit market is facing systemic risks, including concerns over AI-driven economic disruptions and rising bankruptcy rates. Ares Management's net income and EPS dropped significantly in Q4 2025 (-80.24% and -81.94% YoY, respectively). Broader market sentiment is negative, with the S&P 500 down 0.56% and hedge fund/insider trading trends neutral.
In Q4 2025, Ares Management's revenue increased by 27.68% YoY to $1.77 billion. However, net income dropped sharply by 80.24% YoY to $28.94 million, and EPS fell by 81.94% YoY to $0.13. The gross margin remained unchanged.
Analysts have mixed views with several downward price target revisions. RBC Capital lowered its target to $173 from $180 but maintains an Outperform rating. UBS lowered its target to $148 from $198 with a Neutral rating. Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to Buy with a $155 target, citing overblown concerns about private credit fundamentals. Despite the mixed sentiment, most analysts recognize Ares' strong track record and durable earnings growth.
