ADP Earnings

ADP reported its earnings on 2026-01-28, showcasing a revenue of 5.36B against an estimate of 5.33B, resulting in a 0.55% surprise. The EPS was 2.62, surpassing the expected 2.58 by 1.55%. The stock experienced a -1.5% price change on the earnings day and a -2.73% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following ADP's earnings announcement on 2026-01-28, the stock price moved by -1.5% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a -2.73% change. Historically, ADP's stock price tends to shift by an average of 0.66% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -0.26% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2026/Q3, analysts estimate ADP's annual revenue to reach 5.83B, while the EPS is projected at 3.27. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates unchanged by 0% and EPS estimates unchanged by 0% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company's performance.

The correlation between ADP's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2026 were unchanged by 0%, while EPS estimates moved unchanged by 0%. This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, ADP's stock price typically moves by 0.66% in the 10 days before its earnings and -0.26% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2026/Q3 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 3.27 and revenue of 5.83B.

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook: strong financial metrics, consistent revenue growth, and positive partnerships like CashFlow Central with Fiserv. However, muted hiring levels and flat full-year outlooks for some metrics balance these positives. The Q&A session revealed confidence in margin targets and positive AI impacts, but concerns about AI's long-term labor market effects were not directly addressed. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, as the positives are offset by uncertainties and flat guidance.