0TCOM.US Overview

Passenger Flow Increase: During the first seven days of the Lunar New Year holiday, China's cross-regional passenger flow reached 2.08 billion, a 9.3% year-on-year increase, indicating a rebound in domestic travel demand.

Travel Demand Trends: The surge in passenger volume was attributed to family reunions before the holiday, with a balanced demand for both long and short-haul travel benefiting online travel agencies.

Citi's Ratings: Citi maintained a Buy rating for Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel, with target prices set at USD82 and HKD28 respectively, reflecting confidence in their market performance.

Upcoming Earnings Report: Trip.com is expected to announce its fourth-quarter results soon, with analysts predicting that the stock price may remain stable until the announcement.

Passenger Throughput Growth: The Ministry of Transport reported a 4% year-on-year increase in nationwide passenger throughput during the first 17 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, with notable growth in all transport sectors: railway (2.8%), airline (5.2%), roadway (4%), and waterway (18.4%).

Strong Holiday Performance: In the first four days of the nine-day Spring Festival holiday, total passenger volume surged by 6.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in railway (3.5%), airline (7.7%), roadway (6.8%), and waterway (26.9%) transport.

Market Outlook: Citi Research highlighted an optimistic outlook for the Chinese market, maintaining a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel, with target prices set at US$82 and $28, respectively.

Short Selling Data: As of February 16, 2026, Trip.com Group experienced short selling of $17.31 million, with a short selling ratio of 31.367%.

JPMorgan's Trading Strategy: JPMorgan has recommended an upside options trading strategy focused on the Chinese consumer market ahead of the Chinese New Year, highlighting high-end baijiu, premium proteins, major condiments, gold, and tourism as key sectors.

Stock Market Outlook: The firm remains optimistic about the Chinese stock market but advises investors to be selective, naming TENCENT, LAOPU GOLD, MGM CHINA, TAL Education, TRIP.COM, HAITIAN FLAV, KWEICHOW MOUTAI, MENGNIU DAIRY, and WULIANGYE as top stock picks.

Citi Research Forecast: Citi Research anticipates TRIP.COM-S's 4Q25 revenue and adjusted operating profit to align with market expectations, with potential market share expansion and benefits from a rebound in average daily rates in the domestic hotel sector.

Earnings Adjustments: The broker has reduced its adjusted earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 9% and 5%, respectively, and lowered the target price for Trip.com Group's US stock from $86 to $82 due to anticipated impacts on the domestic hotel business.

Antitrust Investigation Impact: UBS predicts that Trip.com’s share price will remain range-bound in the near term as the market has already factored in the effects of the ongoing antitrust investigation.

Investment Outlook: Despite the challenges, Citi Research maintains a Buy rating on TRIP.COM-S, citing its industry-leading position and the expectation of clearer visibility on fundamentals once the investigation concludes.

Stock Performance: TENCENT saw a notable increase of 2.306%, while SHENZHOU INTL and BABA-W also experienced gains of 1.536% and 1.530%, respectively.

Short Selling Data: TENCENT had a short selling amount of $529.35M with a ratio of 8.541%, while SHENZHOU INTL had a significantly higher short selling ratio of 35.574% at $62.89M.

Declines in Other Stocks: WEICHAI POWER, MIDEA GP, and HENGRUI PHARMA experienced slight declines, with MIDEA GP dropping by 0.775%.

Market Overview: The report includes delayed quotes for HK stocks and mentions that the short selling data is as of January 28, 2026, indicating a focus on real-time market analysis.

Stock Performance Overview: Various stocks including AIA, Alibaba, and BYD showed mixed performance with AIA and Alibaba experiencing gains, while SMIC saw a decline.

Short Selling Data: Significant short selling activity was noted across multiple stocks, with BYD and SHK PPT having the highest short selling ratios at 34.941% and 35.602%, respectively.

Investment Ratings: Analysts have given "Buy" ratings to several companies including Alibaba, BOC Hong Kong, and Trip.com, while AIA is rated as "Hold."

Market Insights: JPMorgan estimates Alibaba's T-Head valuation to be between US$25-62 billion, indicating that a spinoff and separate listing is unlikely this year.