01876 Overview

Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gains for ANTA SPORTS (+2.365%) and HAIDILAO (+5.822%), while LI NING (-1.875%) and SANDS CHINA LTD (-1.271%) experienced declines.

Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with LI NING having the highest ratio at 23.224%, while TSINGTAO BREW reported the lowest at 1.075%.

Investment Ratings: Most stocks listed received a "Buy" rating, except for LI NING, which is rated as "Hold," indicating a generally positive outlook for the majority of the stocks.

Market Insights: Citi's estimate for Macau's February gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected at MOP20 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, suggesting a stable gaming market.

Morgan Stanley's Earnings Forecasts: Morgan Stanley has lowered its earnings forecasts for BUD APAC for 2026 and 2027 by 12% and 14%, respectively, while introducing a 2028 EPS forecast of US$0.06.

Impact of Household Drinking Channels: The broker adjusted its average selling price forecasts for 2026-2027 down by 2-3% due to an increased proportion of household drinking channels in China.

Target Price and Rating: Despite the lowered forecasts, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on BUD APAC and kept the target price at $9.

Short Selling Data: As of February 13, 2026, BUD APAC has a short selling amount of $57.35M with a ratio of 36.830%.

Stock Performance: BUD APAC (01876.HK) experienced a slight decline of 0.756%, with short selling amounting to $57.35M and a ratio of 36.830%.

Earnings Forecast: HSBC Global Research reported that BUD APAC's 2025 normalized EBITDA was 1% below expectations, while maintaining a consistent dividend policy with an expected yield of 4.8% for 2026.

Growth Strategy: The company aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market, explore opportunities in South Korea, and sustain momentum in India for 2026.

Brokerage Update: CICC has maintained an "Outperform" rating on BUD APAC but reduced its target price from $8.4 to $8.3, citing concerns over sales exposure to the catering channel amid demand recovery pressures.

Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts: BUD APAC is projected to experience a year-over-year decline in revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025, with estimates of USD5.764 billion and USD1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations.

Market Recovery Expectations: UBS Global Research anticipates a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market, potentially delaying improvements until the second half of 2026, despite raising revenue forecasts for 2026-28 by 2-3% due to expected RMB appreciation.

Sales Performance: BUD APAC experienced a year-over-year decline of 6.1% in organic sales and 9.8% in EBITDA for 2025, primarily due to a downturn in the China market, where sales volume fell by 8.6%.

Market Stabilization: Signs of stabilization in the China market are emerging, with a narrowing decline in sales volume to 3.9% in Q4 2025.

Future Outlook: For 2026, BUD APAC anticipates slight challenges from commodity price costs but expects the China market to return to positive revenue growth, with stable average selling prices and a projected 2% increase in sales volume.

Analyst Rating: Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for BUD APAC with a target price of $8.4, despite the recent declines in sales and EBITDA.

Financial Performance: BUD APAC reported a 25% YoY decline in EBITDA for 4Q25, falling 12% short of market expectations, with a 4% drop in sales attributed mainly to Bud China’s poor performance.

Challenges Faced: Bud China experienced significant decreases in sales and EBITDA, driven by increased promotional activities and deleveraging effects, leading to an 11% and 42% YoY decline, respectively.

Future Outlook: Despite recent challenges, Bud China has shown improved sales momentum since 4Q25 and plans to enhance growth in FY26 by investing in at-home consumption distribution capabilities.

Analyst Rating: JPMorgan maintains a Neutral rating on BUD APAC with a target price of HKD7.9, forecasting a 3.4% growth in sales and a 5.4% growth in EBITDA for 2026.