01199 Overview

China A-share Market Performance: The China A-share market showed solid performance last year, particularly in AI, technology, and materials sectors, while domestic consumption sectors lagged, resulting in significant divergence in returns.

Growth Stocks Outlook: Growth stocks in China's A-share market performed well, with expectations that earnings growth will drive returns in 2025, following a period of PE ratio expansion.

Investment Strategy Update: Jefferies has adopted a barbell strategy focusing on reasonable price growth stocks and sustainable yield stocks, adding new targets like SYTECH and HIMILE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY to its investment portfolio.

Short Selling Activity: The report highlights significant short selling activity in various stocks, including POP MART and SUNNY OPTICAL, with varying short selling ratios indicating market sentiment.

Stock Performance: Air China saw a slight increase of 0.431%, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines experienced minor declines. COSCO Ship Energy had a notable rise of 4.249%.

Short Selling Data: Air China had a short selling ratio of 12.263%, with significant short selling observed in COSCO Ship Energy at 22.876%.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts maintain a "Buy" rating for Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, with target price adjustments reflecting potential growth.

Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the airline and tanker sectors for 2026, while being cautious regarding container shipping, indicating a mixed outlook for the industry.

Aviation Sector Outlook: Goldman Sachs is optimistic about aviation stocks, particularly AIR CHINA and CEA, anticipating further increases in ticket prices despite potential risks in Japan during the first half of 2026.

Container Shipping Concerns: The bank has adopted a cautious stance on container shipping due to a recovery in supply, which may compress profit margins, and the potential reopening of the Red Sea could release about 10% of effective capacity, impacting COSCO SHIP HOLD.

Crude Oil Tanker Projections: Goldman Sachs expects spot freight rates for crude oil tankers to rise in 2026, driven by China's prolonged crude oil reserve process, with COSCO SHIP ENGY likely to benefit from this trend.

Investment Ratings: The report includes various investment ratings and target prices for several companies, with a general recommendation to buy for most aviation and shipping stocks, while COSCO SHIP HOLD is rated neutral to sell.

Company Overview: COSCO SHIP PORT (01199.HK) has reported its financial results for the first three quarters ending September 2025.

Short Selling Activity: The company experienced short selling amounting to $7.01 million, with a short selling ratio of 24.828%.

China's Port Growth: Despite US tariffs and trade uncertainties, China's port container throughput grew by 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with forecasts predicting a slowdown to 2% growth in the second half of the year.

Shipping Stocks Recommendations: Goldman Sachs has upgraded target prices for COSCO SHIP PORT and CHINA MER PORT, favoring COSCO due to its strong performance in Europe and projecting a 5% dividend yield for 2025.

Forecast on Container Throughput: HSBC Global Research predicts a significant slowdown in container throughput at Chinese ports in the second half of 2025, influenced by US tariffs and a high base from the previous year, with the US National Retail Federation expecting an 8.4% and 20% decline in container imports for Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively.

Impact on Earnings and Ratings: The anticipated slowdown is expected to reduce earnings for related companies by 2-21% in 2H25, leading to a downgrade of CHINA MER PORT's rating from Hold to Reduce, while COSCO SHIP PORT's target price was raised, maintaining a Neutral rating.