Citi has initiated a 90-day negative catalyst watch on CPIC (02601.HK) due to expectations that its FY25 results will lag behind its peers. Specifically, Citi forecasts that CPIC's FY25 value of new life insurance business will grow by only 28%, which is significantly lower than the growth rates projected for competitors such as China Life (38%), NCI (35%), and Ping An Life Insurance (32%). Additionally, Citi anticipates a less favorable combined operating ratio of 98.0% for CPIC's property and casualty segment compared to major peers, which are expected to have ratios of 97.3% for PICC Group and 97.1% for Ping An. Furthermore, CPIC's projected 16% year-over-year earnings increase is also expected to fall short of the earnings growth rates of its competitors, which range from 29.5% to 220%. Despite these concerns, Citi has rated CPIC as a Buy with a target price of HKD 44.9.
