00817 Should I Buy

Morgan Stanley's analyst rating for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is based on several key factors: 1. Short-term Valuation Appeal: The recent rise in the company's stock price has significantly reduced its short-term valuation appeal, leading to an anticipated decline in share price over the next 60 days. 2. Pessimistic Real Estate Market Outlook: The broker believes that the current positive sentiment driving industry performance is unlikely to be sustained, given the overall pessimistic outlook for the real estate market. 3. Potential Earnings Miss: Morgan Stanley expects the company to face multiple short-term headwinds, including a potential earnings miss, with core profit projected to drop over 50% year-over-year in 2025. 4. Solid Fundamentals and Quality Land Reserves: Despite these challenges, the broker maintains an Equalweight rating due to the company's solid fundamentals and support from quality land reserves in first-tier cities. 5. Target Price: The target price set by Morgan Stanley for CHINA JINMAO is $1.23. Overall, the rating reflects a cautious outlook due to anticipated challenges, balanced by the company's underlying strengths.