00168 Overview

Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gains for ANTA SPORTS (+2.365%) and HAIDILAO (+5.822%), while LI NING (-1.875%) and SANDS CHINA LTD (-1.271%) experienced declines.

Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with LI NING having the highest ratio at 23.224%, while TSINGTAO BREW reported the lowest at 1.075%.

Investment Ratings: Most stocks listed received a "Buy" rating, except for LI NING, which is rated as "Hold," indicating a generally positive outlook for the majority of the stocks.

Market Insights: Citi's estimate for Macau's February gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected at MOP20 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, suggesting a stable gaming market.

Index Review Announcement: The China Securities Index Company and Hang Seng Indexes Company released the half-yearly review results for the Hang Seng CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong AH Smart Index, which includes the largest 50 AH companies under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme.

Constituent Changes: The index maintains 50 constituent companies, with SANY HEAVY INDUSTRIES and SERES being newly included, while CEA and TSINGTAO BREWERY were excluded.

Future Share Class Determination: The share classes of the companies included in the index will be determined in March 2026, aligning with the monthly share class switching exercise.

Market Data: The report includes short selling data for the excluded companies, indicating significant short selling activity and ratios for both CEA and TSINGTAO BREWERY.

Market Performance: Hong Kong stocks rose on the settlement date, with the HSI increasing by 141 points (0.5%) to close at 27,968, while the HSCEI gained 40 points (0.4%) to finish at 9,552. The HSTECH, however, fell by 59 points (1%) to close at 5,841.

Chinese Developers Surge: Significant gains were observed among Chinese developers, attributed to reports that they are no longer required to report the "Three Red Lines" metrics monthly. Notable increases included KWG GROUP (+40.96%), CHINA AOYUAN (+32.88%), and SUNAC (+29.13%).

Short Selling Activity: The short selling activity was notable, with various developers experiencing high ratios, such as SHIMAO GROUP (6.765%) and CIFI HOLD GP (1.472%), indicating a mix of investor sentiment in the market.

Consumer Stocks Rise: Consumer stocks also saw increases, with ZJLD surging by 12.35% and CTG DUTY-FREE by 7.98%, alongside other notable gains in companies like TSINGTAO BREW (+5.63%) and ANTA SPORTS (+4.80%).

CNOOC and JD.com Short Selling: CNOOC has a short selling value of $28.22M with a ratio of 3.983%, while JD.com shows a significantly higher short selling value of $91.22M and a ratio of 19.039%.

Stock Performance of Various Companies: Companies like SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and MediaTek are mentioned, with some showing minor fluctuations in stock prices.

Brent Oil Price Forecast: Citi has raised its three-month Brent oil price forecast to $70 per barrel, indicating a positive outlook for oil prices.

Short Selling Data Overview: The report includes short selling data for various companies, with notable figures for Tsingtao Brew and Kunlun Energy, reflecting varying levels of market activity.

Citi's Sales Forecast Adjustment: Citi has reduced its 2025-27 sales forecasts for BUD APAC by 3% to 4% due to a less favorable outlook for its China business, particularly for 4Q25 sales impacted by the timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026.

Core Net Profit Forecasts Cut: The bank has also lowered its core net profit forecasts for BUD APAC by 10% for 2025 and 2026, and by 9% for 2027, reflecting weakened operating leverage.

Target Price Revision: BUD APAC's target price has been decreased from HKD12.4 to HKD11.4, although Citi maintains a Buy rating on the stock.

Preference for Chinese Beer Makers: Citi's ranking of Chinese beer makers remains unchanged, with BUD APAC positioned below CHINA RES BEER and TSINGTAO BREW in their preference order.

Citi's Profit Forecast Adjustment: Citi has lowered its core net profit forecasts for TSINGTAO BREW for 2025-26 by 2% and 3%, along with a 1% reduction in revenue forecasts.

Valuation Benchmark Update: The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026 EV/EBITDA, with an unchanged estimated target EV/EBITDA multiple of 12 times.

Target Price Increase: Citi raised its target price for TSINGTAO BREW from HKD75.2 to HKD76.1 while maintaining a Buy rating.

Short Selling Data: As of January 9, 2026, short selling for TSINGTAO BREW was reported at $41.58 million, with a ratio of 21.474%.