00119 Overview

Earnings Forecast: China's real estate sector is expected to see a significant decline in earnings for covered companies in 2025, with firms like CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP projected to experience a 15-20% year-on-year decrease.

Market Sentiment: Despite the anticipated earnings drop, CICC maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector for 2023, suggesting potential for positive returns and good value in stock selection for 2026.

Company Performance: Some companies, including GREENTOWN CHINA and YUEXIU PROPERTY, may report marginal profits, while others like LONGFOR GROUP and URBAN CONS DEV could face slight losses, with a few firms expected to see steady core profits.

Stock Ratings: CICC has kept its ratings and target prices unchanged for various Chinese developers, highlighting stocks such as BINJIANG GP and SEAZEN HOLDINGS as outperformers in the market.

Citi's Ratings for Chinese Property Developers: Citi has provided investment ratings and target prices for various Chinese property developers, with ratings ranging from "Buy" to "Sell/High Risk" based on their performance and short selling ratios.

Target Prices Overview: Target prices for selected developers include Agile Group at HKD 0.53, C&D International Group at HKD 22.5, and China Overseas at HKD 17.2, reflecting varying levels of investor confidence.

Citi's Ratings for Brokerage Platforms: The investment ratings for Chinese brokerage platforms and project managers also indicate a "Buy" recommendation for companies like KE Holdings and Greentown Management, with target prices set at USD 22.6 and HKD 3.45, respectively.

Market Reactions and Short Selling: The report highlights significant short selling activity across various stocks, indicating market volatility and investor caution, particularly in the context of the Chinese real estate sector.

Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 53 points (0.2%) to 26,595, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines.

Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent saw declines, with Alibaba dropping 2.3% and Tencent down 0.8%, while Xiaomi gained 0.7%.

Notable Gainers: XPENG surged by 15.1%, and other stocks like Sinopharm and Baidu also posted significant gains, reflecting positive movements among certain constituents.

Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, with Baidu and Ping An showing notable activity, indicating investor caution in the market.

Sales Performance: In October 2025, POLY PROPERTY's contracted sales value dropped 50% year-on-year to approximately RMB4.3 billion, with a total area sold of around 148,000 sq. m. and an average selling price of RMB29,269 per sq. m.

Year-to-Date Sales: By the end of October 2025, the company reported a total contracted sales value of about RMB43.8 billion, reflecting a 10.4% decrease year-on-year, with a total area sold of approximately 1.443 million sq. m. and an average selling price of RMB30,348 per sq. m.

Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 462 points (1.7%) to 26,290, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) dropped 211 points (3.3%) to 6,259, with a total market turnover of $333.74 billion.

Notable Stock Movements: Major stocks like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi experienced significant declines, with Alibaba down 4.6% and Tencent down 3.6%. Other notable losers included Wuxi Bio and SMIC, which fell by 7.6% and 7.1%, respectively.

Short Selling Activity: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, including Baidu and Kuaishou, indicating increased bearish sentiment among investors.

Gainers and Losers: While many stocks declined, Poly Property and Guming saw substantial gains of 19.5% and 12.2%, respectively, highlighting a mixed performance across the market.