Vail Resorts Lowers FY 2025 EBITDA Guidance to Low End
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 15 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MTN?
Vail Resorts said earlier, "Given the impact from conditions, we now expect our full year Resort Reported EBITDA to be just below the low end of the guidance range issued on September 29, 2025, assuming that performance in the Rockies returns to normal by President's weekend. To the extent that performance improvements in the Rockies lag, due to weaker than expected conditions, there could be further downside to our guidance. Our guidance also assumes (1) normal weather conditions, outside of the Rockies, for the remainder of the 2025/2026 ski season and the 2026 Australian ski season, (2) typical passholder usage for the remainder of the season, (3) continuation of the current economic environment, and (4) the foreign currency exchange rates as of our original fiscal 2026 guidance issued September 29, 2025." Shares of Vail Resorts are up 9c to $142.66 in early trading.
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Analyst Views on MTN
Wall Street analysts forecast MTN stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 135.810
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
Current: 135.810
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
About MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc. is a network of destination and close-to-home ski resorts in the world including Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, Park City Mountain, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and 32 additional resorts across North America; Andermatt-Sedrun and Crans-Montana Mountain Resort in Switzerland; and Perisher, Hotham, and Falls Creek in Australia - all available on the Company's Epic Pass. The Company's segments include Mountain, Lodging and Real Estate. It also provides ancillary services, primarily including ski school, dining and retail/rental operations. The Company owns and/or manages a collection of elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand, a portfolio of vacation rentals, condominiums and branded hotels located in close proximity to its mountain destinations, as well as the Grand Teton Lodge Company in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The Company operates more than 250 retail and rental locations across North America. It owns, develops and sells real estate in and around its resort communities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
IHS Holding Limited Enters Merger Agreement with MTN Group
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- Shareholder Value Enhancement: The transaction offers a 239% premium to shareholders compared to the share price at the strategic review on March 12, 2024, reflecting management's commitment to shareholder interests.
- Positive Market Reaction: The deal also presents a 36% premium based on the 52-week volume-weighted average price as of February 4, 2026, indicating market recognition and confidence in the transaction.
- Board Support: The IHS Board of Directors has unanimously approved the deal and recommended that shareholders vote in favor, with the transaction expected to close in 2026, further solidifying the company's market position.
See More
BAMCO Reduces Stake in Vail Resorts
- Share Reduction Details: According to a SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, BAMCO Inc sold 892,764 shares of Vail Resorts during Q4, reducing its holdings to 4,809,928 shares, with a quarter-end valuation decline of $214.19 million reflecting both trading activities and price movements.
- Asset Management Ratio Shift: Following this sale, Vail Resorts now represents only 1.73% of BAMCO's 13F reportable AUM, indicating investor concerns regarding the resilience of high-end vacation spending in an uncertain travel environment.
- Company Financial Overview: As of February 17, 2026, Vail Resorts' stock price stood at $137.75, down 8.9% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 23.36 percentage points, which reflects market caution regarding its future growth prospects.
- Profitability Model Analysis: Vail Resorts generates revenue primarily from lift ticket sales, lodging, and ancillary resort services; while the Epic Pass offers predictable cash flow, the company's high fixed costs mean that even slight declines in visitor numbers can significantly pressure earnings.
See More
BAMCO Inc Sells Shares of Vail Resorts
- Share Sale Details: BAMCO Inc sold 892,764 shares of Vail Resorts in Q4 for approximately $131.38 million, reflecting market concerns about high-end vacation spending, which has led to a decline in the company's investment position.
- Value Decline: The transaction resulted in a $214.19 million decrease in BAMCO's position value in Vail Resorts, with the current holding of 4,809,928 shares valued at $638.76 million, indicating pressure on the company within the luxury travel market.
- Portfolio Impact: Vail Resorts now represents 1.73% of BAMCO's 13F reportable assets under management, no longer being among the top five holdings, which suggests a weakening investor confidence in the company.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 17, 2026, Vail Resorts' stock price stood at $137.75, down 8.9% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 23.36 percentage points, reflecting a cautious market outlook on its future growth.
See More
Oasis Management Increases Stake in Vail Resorts
- Stake Increase: On February 12, 2026, Oasis Management disclosed an increase of 833,500 shares in Vail Resorts, with an estimated transaction value of $122.66 million, reflecting confidence in the company's future recovery.
- Value Appreciation: By quarter-end, Oasis's total stake in Vail Resorts reached $245.84 million, up $93.62 million from the previous quarter, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company.
- Market Environment Analysis: Despite a weak ski season with a 20% drop in skier visits, Oasis's stake increase suggests optimism about Vail Resorts' long-term growth potential, particularly regarding geographic advantages and customer loyalty.
- Investment Concentration: Vail Resorts represents 37% of Oasis's reportable assets, highlighting its significance in the portfolio and indicating management's high conviction in the cyclical recovery thesis tied to the company's performance.
See More
Oasis Management Increases Stake in Vail Resorts
- Stake Increase: Oasis Management acquired 833,500 shares of Vail Resorts (MTN) in Q4 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $122.66 million, indicating confidence in the company's future recovery.
- Value Appreciation: As of February 12, 2026, Oasis's total stake in Vail was valued at $245.84 million, up $93.62 million from the previous quarter, reflecting a positive market outlook for ski resorts.
- Market Performance Analysis: Vail Resorts shares were priced at $136.93, down approximately 12.24% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 25.14 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the current ski season.
- Investor Confidence: Despite a 20% drop in skier visits, Oasis's increased stake suggests strong belief in Vail Resorts' ability to normalize operations in the future, particularly supported by geographic advantages and customer loyalty.
See More
Vail Resorts to Release Q2 2026 Financial Results on March 9
- Earnings Release Schedule: Vail Resorts will announce its financial results for the fiscal second quarter 2026, ending January 31, on March 9, 2026, which is expected to significantly impact investors.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day, during which executives will review the financial results, providing in-depth analysis for investors.
- Replay and Archive: A replay of the call will be available two hours after its conclusion until March 16, ensuring that investors who cannot participate live can access key information.
- Company Overview: Vail Resorts operates a network of ski resorts and hotels, committed to delivering exceptional customer experiences while pledging to achieve a zero net operating footprint by 2030, demonstrating its commitment to sustainability.
See More
IHS Holding Limited Enters Merger Agreement with MTN Group
- Merger Agreement Details: IHS Holding Limited has announced a merger agreement with MTN Group, with a transaction price of $8.50 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $6.2 billion, showcasing the company's strong market appeal.
- Shareholder Value Enhancement: The transaction offers a 239% premium to shareholders compared to the share price at the strategic review on March 12, 2024, reflecting management's commitment to shareholder interests.
- Positive Market Reaction: The deal also presents a 36% premium based on the 52-week volume-weighted average price as of February 4, 2026, indicating market recognition and confidence in the transaction.
- Board Support: The IHS Board of Directors has unanimously approved the deal and recommended that shareholders vote in favor, with the transaction expected to close in 2026, further solidifying the company's market position.
See More
BAMCO Reduces Stake in Vail Resorts
- Share Reduction Details: According to a SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, BAMCO Inc sold 892,764 shares of Vail Resorts during Q4, reducing its holdings to 4,809,928 shares, with a quarter-end valuation decline of $214.19 million reflecting both trading activities and price movements.
- Asset Management Ratio Shift: Following this sale, Vail Resorts now represents only 1.73% of BAMCO's 13F reportable AUM, indicating investor concerns regarding the resilience of high-end vacation spending in an uncertain travel environment.
- Company Financial Overview: As of February 17, 2026, Vail Resorts' stock price stood at $137.75, down 8.9% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 23.36 percentage points, which reflects market caution regarding its future growth prospects.
- Profitability Model Analysis: Vail Resorts generates revenue primarily from lift ticket sales, lodging, and ancillary resort services; while the Epic Pass offers predictable cash flow, the company's high fixed costs mean that even slight declines in visitor numbers can significantly pressure earnings.
See More
BAMCO Inc Sells Shares of Vail Resorts
- Share Sale Details: BAMCO Inc sold 892,764 shares of Vail Resorts in Q4 for approximately $131.38 million, reflecting market concerns about high-end vacation spending, which has led to a decline in the company's investment position.
- Value Decline: The transaction resulted in a $214.19 million decrease in BAMCO's position value in Vail Resorts, with the current holding of 4,809,928 shares valued at $638.76 million, indicating pressure on the company within the luxury travel market.
- Portfolio Impact: Vail Resorts now represents 1.73% of BAMCO's 13F reportable assets under management, no longer being among the top five holdings, which suggests a weakening investor confidence in the company.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 17, 2026, Vail Resorts' stock price stood at $137.75, down 8.9% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 23.36 percentage points, reflecting a cautious market outlook on its future growth.
See More
Oasis Management Increases Stake in Vail Resorts
- Stake Increase: On February 12, 2026, Oasis Management disclosed an increase of 833,500 shares in Vail Resorts, with an estimated transaction value of $122.66 million, reflecting confidence in the company's future recovery.
- Value Appreciation: By quarter-end, Oasis's total stake in Vail Resorts reached $245.84 million, up $93.62 million from the previous quarter, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company.
- Market Environment Analysis: Despite a weak ski season with a 20% drop in skier visits, Oasis's stake increase suggests optimism about Vail Resorts' long-term growth potential, particularly regarding geographic advantages and customer loyalty.
- Investment Concentration: Vail Resorts represents 37% of Oasis's reportable assets, highlighting its significance in the portfolio and indicating management's high conviction in the cyclical recovery thesis tied to the company's performance.
See More
Oasis Management Increases Stake in Vail Resorts
- Stake Increase: Oasis Management acquired 833,500 shares of Vail Resorts (MTN) in Q4 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $122.66 million, indicating confidence in the company's future recovery.
- Value Appreciation: As of February 12, 2026, Oasis's total stake in Vail was valued at $245.84 million, up $93.62 million from the previous quarter, reflecting a positive market outlook for ski resorts.
- Market Performance Analysis: Vail Resorts shares were priced at $136.93, down approximately 12.24% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 25.14 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the current ski season.
- Investor Confidence: Despite a 20% drop in skier visits, Oasis's increased stake suggests strong belief in Vail Resorts' ability to normalize operations in the future, particularly supported by geographic advantages and customer loyalty.
See More
Vail Resorts to Release Q2 2026 Financial Results on March 9
- Earnings Release Schedule: Vail Resorts will announce its financial results for the fiscal second quarter 2026, ending January 31, on March 9, 2026, which is expected to significantly impact investors.
- Conference Call Details: The company will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day, during which executives will review the financial results, providing in-depth analysis for investors.
- Replay and Archive: A replay of the call will be available two hours after its conclusion until March 16, ensuring that investors who cannot participate live can access key information.
- Company Overview: Vail Resorts operates a network of ski resorts and hotels, committed to delivering exceptional customer experiences while pledging to achieve a zero net operating footprint by 2030, demonstrating its commitment to sustainability.
See More
