U.S. Stock Futures Slightly Lower as Oil Prices Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Stock futures are slightly lower amid AI-related risk aversion and ongoing rotation across sectors. Futures may also be reacting to GDP growth that came in well below forecasts in Q4. The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 1.4% rate in Q4, following 4.4% growth in Q3 and well below forecasts, the advance estimate showed.Oil prices have climbed amid rising geopolitical tension as crude oil reached six-month highs on geopolitical risk around the Middle East, bolstering energy demand, while agricultural commodities like cocoa and coffee have faced substantial declines due to supply considerations and weak demand signals.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 futures fell 0.33%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.46% and Dow futures fell 0.24%.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER -AppLovinup 4% after Bloombergthe company is preparing to build a social networking platformUP AFTER EARNINGS -Opendoor Technologiesup 18%RingCentralup 12%Texas Roadhouseup 3%Oil Statesup 2%Lamar Advertisingup 1%DOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Hudbay Mineralsdown 4%Western Uniondown 2%PPL Corp.down 2%LOWER -Graildown 47% after reporting its NHS-Galleri trial missed the primary endpoint
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Analyst Views on APP
Wall Street analysts forecast APP stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 434.770
Low
465.00
Averages
745.50
High
860.00
Current: 434.770
Low
465.00
Averages
745.50
High
860.00
About APP
AppLovin Corporation is a marketing platform. The Company provides end-to-end software and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions for businesses to reach, monetize and grow their global audiences. Its advertising solutions include a comprehensive suite of tools including AppDiscovery, MAX, Adjust, Wurl and Axon Ads Manager. AppDiscovery is powered by AXON, its AI-powered advertising engine, and matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions at vast scale and at microsecond-level speeds. MAX is its monetization solution, utilizing an advanced in-app bidding technology that optimizes the value of a publisher’s advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction, driving more competition, and higher returns for publishers. Adjust is its measurement and analytics marketing platform which provides marketers with the visibility, insights, and data needed to scale their apps marketing and drive more informed results. Wurl is its connected TV (CTV) platform.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Investment Insights: Analysts emphasize the importance of selecting software companies wisely, as the market is currently pricing in panic rather than fundamentals, with some firms being mispriced.
Company Performance: Microsoft is highlighted as a strong player in the AI space, with its Azure infrastructure and enterprise integration driving growth, despite a recent drop in shares.
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- Trade Policy Impact: President Trump signed an executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, a move that may curb global economic growth and exacerbate downward pressure on the markets.
- Software Stocks Under Pressure: Concerns over AI impacts led to a more than 9% drop in CrowdStrike and other software stocks, which not only affected the market capitalization of these companies but also negatively influenced overall market sentiment.
- Economic Data Performance: The U.S. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose by 0.39 to 0.18, exceeding expectations and indicating potential improvement in economic activity, yet the market remains cautious ahead of upcoming corporate earnings and economic data releases.
See More
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- Tariff Increase Impact: President Trump's executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15% could suppress global economic growth, negatively impacting the stock market, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors, as investors reassess risk exposure.
- Earnings Outlook: Despite the overall market decline, over 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 74% exceeding expectations, indicating resilience in corporate earnings, and S&P earnings growth is projected to reach 8.4% in Q4.
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Market Trends: The software correction continues, with investor confidence declining, leading to a distinction between companies benefiting from AI and those vulnerable to disruption.
Investment Insights: Analysts emphasize the importance of selecting software companies wisely, as the market is currently pricing in panic rather than fundamentals, with some firms being mispriced.
Company Performance: Microsoft is highlighted as a strong player in the AI space, with its Azure infrastructure and enterprise integration driving growth, despite a recent drop in shares.
Future Outlook: The conversation suggests that recovery in the software market may favor companies focusing on fundamentals rather than succumbing to market fears, indicating potential for significant returns for discerning investors.
See More
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- Stock Performance: AppLovin shares surged 7.06% to $421.00 on Wednesday, indicating the company's ability to ride the broader market's strength despite ongoing scrutiny from U.S. regulators regarding data collection practices.
- Regulatory Investigation Impact: The SEC's ongoing investigation into AppLovin has not resulted in any accusations of wrongdoing, yet the uncertainty has led investors to reassess the stock's speculative upside, particularly following social media discussions about potential collaborations with OpenAI.
- Technical Weakness Signals: Over the past year, AppLovin's stock climbed sharply from a low of $219.37 to a peak of $733.60, but it has recently pulled back toward its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a cooling momentum.
- Analyst Ratings: Despite challenges, AppLovin maintains a Buy rating from analysts with an average price target of $708.41, reflecting market confidence in its future performance, although Jefferies and Citigroup have both lowered their price targets.
See More
US Stocks Plunge as Trade Policy Concerns Emerge
- Market Decline: On Monday, the S&P 500 Index fell by 1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 1.21%, reflecting risk-off sentiment triggered by uncertainty over U.S. trade policy.
- Tariff Increase: President Trump signed an executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, a move that could curb global economic growth and negatively impact the stock market, particularly as it faces existing pressures.
- AI Risk Impact: A report from Citrini Research detailing potential risks of artificial intelligence on the global economy led to declines in software and payment stocks, with Datadog and Atlassian seeing drops of over 11% and 10%, respectively, indicating market concerns over tech stocks.
- Economic Data Highlights: Despite the stock market downturn, the U.S. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose by 0.39 to 0.18, surpassing expectations, suggesting that the economic fundamentals remain strong and may provide support for a future market rebound.
See More
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- Market Downtrend: The S&P 500 index fell by 1.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.58%, and the Nasdaq 100 index decreased by 1.47%, reflecting a risk-off sentiment triggered by uncertainty over U.S. trade policy.
- Trade Policy Impact: President Trump signed an executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15%, a move that may curb global economic growth and exacerbate downward pressure on the markets.
- Software Stocks Under Pressure: Concerns over AI impacts led to a more than 9% drop in CrowdStrike and other software stocks, which not only affected the market capitalization of these companies but also negatively influenced overall market sentiment.
- Economic Data Performance: The U.S. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose by 0.39 to 0.18, exceeding expectations and indicating potential improvement in economic activity, yet the market remains cautious ahead of upcoming corporate earnings and economic data releases.
See More
US Stocks Decline Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty
- Market Decline: The S&P 500 Index fell by 0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.24%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.66%, reflecting heightened risk-off sentiment due to uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, which may undermine investor confidence.
- Tariff Increase Impact: President Trump's executive order raising global tariffs from 10% to 15% could suppress global economic growth, negatively impacting the stock market, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors, as investors reassess risk exposure.
- Earnings Outlook: Despite the overall market decline, over 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 74% exceeding expectations, indicating resilience in corporate earnings, and S&P earnings growth is projected to reach 8.4% in Q4.
- Economic Data Focus: The market will closely monitor upcoming economic data, including consumer confidence index and initial jobless claims, as these figures will influence the Fed's interest rate decisions, further impacting stock market trends.
See More
AppLovin Shares Decline Following Update on SEC Investigation
- Shareholder Experience: AppLovin shareholders have faced significant volatility over the past year, indicating a turbulent investment environment.
- Recent Developments: The trend of instability continued recently, suggesting ongoing challenges for the company's stock performance.
See More
