U.S. Stock Futures Modestly Lower Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 26 2026
0mins
Should l Buy USAR?
Stock futures are modestly lower reflecting a cautious response to renewed geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty after the volatility of the past week and before a key Federal Reserve meeting later this week. Markets look set to open mixed to slightly softer as traders navigate a heavy news and event calendar. Investors are bracing for a busy slate of major tech earnings from companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Tesla, prompting selective positioning ahead of potentially market-moving reports.One of the biggest themes shaping markets is the surge in precious metals as safe-haven demand has risen, with gold topping $5,000 an ounce for the first time and silver hitting new records as traders hedge against uncertainty. The dollar has weakened against major currencies, including the Japanese yen, amid speculation of currency intervention and broader risk rebalancing, which further supports commodities and metals.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 fell 0.08%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.28% and Dow futures fell 0.02%.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER -USA Rare Earthup 21% after announcing its entry into a non-binding $1.6B letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce and a collaboration with the U.S. Department of EnergySareptaup 2% after reporting topline three-year results from Part 1-treated patients in EMBARK, the placebo-controlled Phase 3 study evaluating Elevidys in ambulatory individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy who were aged four to seven at time of treatmentAllied Gold Corporationup 3% after announcing that it has entered into a definitive agreement, pursuant to which Zijin Gold International has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Allied Gold at a price of C$44 per share in cashMannKindup 3% after reporting that the FDA has approved an update to the prescribing information for Afrezza inhalation powder, revising recommendations for the starting mealtime dosage when patients switch from subcutaneous mealtime insulin regimensSkyWater Technologyand IonQup 8% and 2%, respectively, after the companies announced they have entered into a definitive agreement pursuant to which IonQ will acquire SkyWater for $35.00 per share in a cash-and-stock transactionCoreWeaveup 8% after Nvidiainvested $2B in CoreWeave Class A common stock at a purchase price of $87.20 per shareLOWER -Revolution Medicinesdown 20% after The Wall Street JournalMerckis no longer in discussions to acquire the companyBlackRock TCP Capitaldown 16% after reporting preliminary Q4 resultsEnphase Energydown 3% after notifying employees the company will be reducing headcount and moving certain functions to cost-efficient regions, affecting less than 6% of its workforce
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy USAR?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on USAR
Wall Street analysts forecast USAR stock price to rise
5 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 19.420
Low
15.00
Averages
22.75
High
28.00
Current: 19.420
Low
15.00
Averages
22.75
High
28.00
About USAR
USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a supplier of sintered neo magnets and other rare earth metals. The Company is engaged in developing a NdFeB magnet manufacturing plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and intends to establish domestic rare earth and critical minerals supply, extraction, and processing capabilities to both supply its magnet manufacturing plant and market surplus materials to third parties. It is focused on developing domestic rare earth production that offers sustainable and secure domestic supply of materials critical to key industries. Its vertically integrated approach consists of sourcing rare earth elements (REEs), in addition to other critical minerals such as gallium, to producing finished NdFeB magnets. The Company serve a variety of industries, such as defense, robotics, electric vehicles, wind power, appliances, cordless tools and computing and semiconductors. The Company owns, Less Common Metals Ltd., which is a scaled ex-China rare earth metal and alloy manufacturer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
USA Rare Earth Stock Continues to Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Stock Surge: USA Rare Earth shares rose 9.7% last week and continued to climb 10.4% today, indicating strong investor interest amid escalating tensions in Iran, highlighting the company's potential to reduce U.S. reliance on China for rare earths.
- Market Appeal: The increase in military action in Iran has reminded investors of the critical role rare earth elements play in the defense industry, particularly in the demand for essential materials used in fighter jets, munitions, and radars, further enhancing the attractiveness of investing in USA Rare Earth.
- Future Revenue Projections: Management projects revenue of $2.6 billion and free cash flow of $900 million by 2030, contingent upon the successful development of its mining operations and rare-earth magnet production facility, indicating significant growth potential for the company.
- Investment Risk Advisory: Despite the promising outlook, investors must remain cautious of potential risks, especially with the possibility of China reinstating rare-earth export restrictions, urging a careful evaluation of investment decisions in the current geopolitical climate.
See More
USA Rare Earth Faces Investment Dilemma Amid High Risks
- Market Potential: USA Rare Earth plans to manufacture 5,000 tons of rare earth magnets annually at its Oklahoma facility, with expectations of tripling market size in the next decade, although it remains pre-revenue, indicating long-term growth potential.
- Resource Estimates: The Round Top site in Texas is estimated to contain tens of millions of tons of rare earth elements and enough lithium hydroxide to produce 20,000 tons daily, potentially generating $400 million annually at 2019 prices, translating to over $8 billion in total revenue over 20 years.
- Funding Challenges: The company requires several hundred million dollars to commence production at Round Top and has secured up to $1.3 billion in federal loans and $1.5 billion in private funding, highlighting the high costs and risks associated with developing new mines.
- Valuation Risks: Despite USA Rare Earth's market capitalization exceeding $4 billion, much of its long-term upside appears priced in, and given the complexities and time required for new mine development, investors should carefully weigh the risks against potential rewards.
See More
USA Rare Earth Stock Rises Amid Iran Conflict
- Stock Surge: USA Rare Earth (USAR) shares rose 10.4% today, closing at $20.90 after a 9.7% increase last week, reflecting strong market demand for rare-earth resources with a market cap of $4.1 billion.
- Geopolitical Impact: The escalation of conflict in Iran has refocused investor attention on the strategic importance of U.S. rare earths, particularly the Round Top deposit in Texas, which could enhance U.S. supply security.
- Future Revenue Outlook: Management projects revenue of $2.6 billion and free cash flow of $900 million by 2030, contingent on the successful development of mining operations and magnet production facilities, indicating significant long-term growth potential.
- Market Risk Warning: While the current situation favors rare-earth stocks, investors should remain cautious of potential trade tensions with China that could lead to export restrictions, highlighting the need to consider investment risks.
See More
USA Rare Earth Unveils Ambitious Plans Amid Stock Surge
- Heavy Rare Earth Advantage: The Round Top deposit stands out with over 70% heavy rare earth content, and management plans to commence commercial production in 2028, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's competitive position in the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors.
- Clear Financial Targets: Management has set ambitious 2030 targets of $2.6 billion in revenue, $1.2 billion in EBITDA, and $900 million in free cash flow, with a current market cap of $4.4 billion, indicating attractive valuations of less than 5x FCF and 3.7x EBITDA.
- Engineering Partner Selection: The company has selected Fluor and WSP Global to support the development of the Round Top mine, with a simplified high-volume production process expected to start in three and a half years, significantly shorter than the typical seven-year timeline, showcasing its execution potential.
- Government Support and Market Outlook: With government backing, USA Rare Earth must ensure the successful production of metals and magnets at its Stillwater facility while developing Round Top to meet the growing domestic demand for critical heavy rare earth materials.
See More
USA Rare Earth Shares Surge 16.2% Following Investor Presentations
- Stock Surge: USA Rare Earth shares rose by 16.2% in the week leading to Friday, reflecting investor confidence following the release of detailed investor presentations regarding the Round Top deposit on the company's website.
- 2030 Financial Targets: Management has maintained its financial targets of $2.6 billion in revenue, $1.2 billion in EBITDA, and $900 million in free cash flow by 2030, providing a valuable valuation framework against the current market cap of $4.4 billion.
- Heavy Rare Earth Advantage: The Round Top deposit is notable for containing over 70% heavy rare earth elements, making it the only deposit of its kind globally, which significantly enhances the company's competitiveness in sectors like electric vehicles, defense, and renewable energy.
- Production Plans: The company aims to commence metal and magnet production at its Stillwater facility this year and plans to start commercial production at Round Top in 2028, which, if successful, will greatly enhance its market position and supply chain security.
See More
Senators Question Commerce Secretary's Conflict of Interest in Mining Deal
- Conflict of Interest Concerns: Democratic senators have raised alarms regarding Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's involvement with critical minerals startup USA Rare Earth, suggesting potential financial benefits for his family members, and are demanding more information to ensure federal investments are free from conflicts of interest.
- Funding Support Plan: The Commerce Department issued a letter of intent last month to provide USA Rare Earth with $1.6 billion to support the expansion of its rare earth mining and magnet manufacturing business, contingent upon the company securing at least $500 million in private funding.
- Financing Structure Analysis: USA Rare Earth selected Cantor Fitzgerald as the
See More
USA Rare Earth Stock Continues to Rise Amid Geopolitical Tensions
- Stock Surge: USA Rare Earth shares rose 9.7% last week and continued to climb 10.4% today, indicating strong investor interest amid escalating tensions in Iran, highlighting the company's potential to reduce U.S. reliance on China for rare earths.
- Market Appeal: The increase in military action in Iran has reminded investors of the critical role rare earth elements play in the defense industry, particularly in the demand for essential materials used in fighter jets, munitions, and radars, further enhancing the attractiveness of investing in USA Rare Earth.
- Future Revenue Projections: Management projects revenue of $2.6 billion and free cash flow of $900 million by 2030, contingent upon the successful development of its mining operations and rare-earth magnet production facility, indicating significant growth potential for the company.
- Investment Risk Advisory: Despite the promising outlook, investors must remain cautious of potential risks, especially with the possibility of China reinstating rare-earth export restrictions, urging a careful evaluation of investment decisions in the current geopolitical climate.
See More
USA Rare Earth Faces Investment Dilemma Amid High Risks
- Market Potential: USA Rare Earth plans to manufacture 5,000 tons of rare earth magnets annually at its Oklahoma facility, with expectations of tripling market size in the next decade, although it remains pre-revenue, indicating long-term growth potential.
- Resource Estimates: The Round Top site in Texas is estimated to contain tens of millions of tons of rare earth elements and enough lithium hydroxide to produce 20,000 tons daily, potentially generating $400 million annually at 2019 prices, translating to over $8 billion in total revenue over 20 years.
- Funding Challenges: The company requires several hundred million dollars to commence production at Round Top and has secured up to $1.3 billion in federal loans and $1.5 billion in private funding, highlighting the high costs and risks associated with developing new mines.
- Valuation Risks: Despite USA Rare Earth's market capitalization exceeding $4 billion, much of its long-term upside appears priced in, and given the complexities and time required for new mine development, investors should carefully weigh the risks against potential rewards.
See More
USA Rare Earth Stock Rises Amid Iran Conflict
- Stock Surge: USA Rare Earth (USAR) shares rose 10.4% today, closing at $20.90 after a 9.7% increase last week, reflecting strong market demand for rare-earth resources with a market cap of $4.1 billion.
- Geopolitical Impact: The escalation of conflict in Iran has refocused investor attention on the strategic importance of U.S. rare earths, particularly the Round Top deposit in Texas, which could enhance U.S. supply security.
- Future Revenue Outlook: Management projects revenue of $2.6 billion and free cash flow of $900 million by 2030, contingent on the successful development of mining operations and magnet production facilities, indicating significant long-term growth potential.
- Market Risk Warning: While the current situation favors rare-earth stocks, investors should remain cautious of potential trade tensions with China that could lead to export restrictions, highlighting the need to consider investment risks.
See More
USA Rare Earth Unveils Ambitious Plans Amid Stock Surge
- Heavy Rare Earth Advantage: The Round Top deposit stands out with over 70% heavy rare earth content, and management plans to commence commercial production in 2028, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's competitive position in the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors.
- Clear Financial Targets: Management has set ambitious 2030 targets of $2.6 billion in revenue, $1.2 billion in EBITDA, and $900 million in free cash flow, with a current market cap of $4.4 billion, indicating attractive valuations of less than 5x FCF and 3.7x EBITDA.
- Engineering Partner Selection: The company has selected Fluor and WSP Global to support the development of the Round Top mine, with a simplified high-volume production process expected to start in three and a half years, significantly shorter than the typical seven-year timeline, showcasing its execution potential.
- Government Support and Market Outlook: With government backing, USA Rare Earth must ensure the successful production of metals and magnets at its Stillwater facility while developing Round Top to meet the growing domestic demand for critical heavy rare earth materials.
See More
USA Rare Earth Shares Surge 16.2% Following Investor Presentations
- Stock Surge: USA Rare Earth shares rose by 16.2% in the week leading to Friday, reflecting investor confidence following the release of detailed investor presentations regarding the Round Top deposit on the company's website.
- 2030 Financial Targets: Management has maintained its financial targets of $2.6 billion in revenue, $1.2 billion in EBITDA, and $900 million in free cash flow by 2030, providing a valuable valuation framework against the current market cap of $4.4 billion.
- Heavy Rare Earth Advantage: The Round Top deposit is notable for containing over 70% heavy rare earth elements, making it the only deposit of its kind globally, which significantly enhances the company's competitiveness in sectors like electric vehicles, defense, and renewable energy.
- Production Plans: The company aims to commence metal and magnet production at its Stillwater facility this year and plans to start commercial production at Round Top in 2028, which, if successful, will greatly enhance its market position and supply chain security.
See More
Senators Question Commerce Secretary's Conflict of Interest in Mining Deal
- Conflict of Interest Concerns: Democratic senators have raised alarms regarding Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's involvement with critical minerals startup USA Rare Earth, suggesting potential financial benefits for his family members, and are demanding more information to ensure federal investments are free from conflicts of interest.
- Funding Support Plan: The Commerce Department issued a letter of intent last month to provide USA Rare Earth with $1.6 billion to support the expansion of its rare earth mining and magnet manufacturing business, contingent upon the company securing at least $500 million in private funding.
- Financing Structure Analysis: USA Rare Earth selected Cantor Fitzgerald as the
See More
