US Senator Proposes Ban on War Prediction Markets
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 16 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy CBOE?
Source: CNBC
- Controversy Over Prediction Markets: Senator Chris Murphy expressed concerns about prediction markets related to the death of Iranian leader Khamenei, labeling it 'insane' and announcing plans to introduce legislation to ban such markets, highlighting the ethical implications of profiting from war.
- Legislative Proposal Context: Murphy emphasized that individuals around Trump are profiting from war and death, calling for transparency and oversight in prediction markets to prevent advance knowledge of military actions from being monetized, reflecting a significant concern for national security.
- Formation of New Trade Group: A new organization led by former Trump Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, named 'Gambling Is Not Investing', aims to advocate for stricter regulations on prediction markets, indicating lawmakers' increasing focus on market transparency and consumer protection.
- Market Response and Company Statements: Prediction market Kalshi stated it does not allow markets directly tied to death and issued refunds for related bets, emphasizing its commitment to compliance and transparency in its operations, showcasing a cautious approach to legal and ethical boundaries.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy CBOE?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on CBOE
Wall Street analysts forecast CBOE stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 299.720
Low
240.00
Averages
290.86
High
317.00
Current: 299.720
Low
240.00
Averages
290.86
High
317.00
About CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. is a provider of derivatives and securities exchange networks, and delivers trading, clearing and investment solutions to customers. The Company operates through six segments. The Options segment includes options on market indices (index options), as well as on the stocks of individual corporations (equity options). The North American Equities segment includes United States equities and ETP transaction services. The Europe and Asia Pacific segments include the pan-European listed equities and derivatives transaction services, ETPs, exchange-traded commodities, and international depository receipts. The Futures segment includes transaction services provided by Cboe Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE), an electronic futures exchange that offers trading of VIX futures and other futures products. The Global FX segment includes institutional FX trading services. The Digital segment includes a regulated futures exchange (Cboe Digital Exchange) and a regulated clearinghouse.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
US Senator Proposes Ban on War Prediction Markets
- Controversy Over Prediction Markets: Senator Chris Murphy expressed concerns about prediction markets related to the death of Iranian leader Khamenei, labeling it 'insane' and announcing plans to introduce legislation to ban such markets, highlighting the ethical implications of profiting from war.
- Legislative Proposal Context: Murphy emphasized that individuals around Trump are profiting from war and death, calling for transparency and oversight in prediction markets to prevent advance knowledge of military actions from being monetized, reflecting a significant concern for national security.
- Formation of New Trade Group: A new organization led by former Trump Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, named 'Gambling Is Not Investing', aims to advocate for stricter regulations on prediction markets, indicating lawmakers' increasing focus on market transparency and consumer protection.
- Market Response and Company Statements: Prediction market Kalshi stated it does not allow markets directly tied to death and issued refunds for related bets, emphasizing its commitment to compliance and transparency in its operations, showcasing a cautious approach to legal and ethical boundaries.
See More
OSB Group Purchases 88,449 Ordinary Shares
- Buyback Program Execution: On February 27, 2026, OSB Group purchased a total of 88,449 ordinary shares through its broker Citigroup Global Markets Limited, reflecting the company's confidence in its stock value and expected to enhance investor trust.
- Price Range of Transactions: The repurchased ordinary shares were acquired at prices ranging from 606.00 pence to 618.50 pence, with a volume-weighted average price of 611.58 pence, indicating a prudent buyback strategy amid market fluctuations.
- Impact of Share Cancellation: The repurchased shares will be cancelled, reducing the total number of ordinary shares in issue to 352,746,901, which will directly affect the company's earnings per share and shareholder equity, potentially enhancing per-share value.
- Voting Rights Update: Following the buyback and cancellation, the total voting rights of the company will be 352,746,901, which shareholders must use as the denominator for calculating their interest, ensuring transparency and compliance.
See More
Hidden Dangers in the Stock Market: Pay Attention to These Warning Signs.
- Market Behavior: The stock market is currently experiencing sideways movement with low volatility.
- Investor Sentiment: This trend indicates that investors may be satisfied with the current economic conditions or are not overly worried about existing risks.
See More
Democratic Senators Express Concerns Over Prediction Market Contracts
- Contract Safety Concerns: Six Democratic senators expressed strong concerns in a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding prediction market contracts that could incentivize physical harm or death, urging the CFTC to categorically prohibit such contracts due to national security risks.
- Regulatory Oversight Gaps: The letter highlights increasing scrutiny over the regulation of prediction markets like Polymarket, particularly regarding their potential contribution to gambling addiction and the risks of insider trading, indicating significant deficiencies in the current regulatory framework.
- Specific Case Analysis: The senators cited three contracts from Polymarket, including one related to a NASA mission, noting that these contracts not only correlated with potential loss of life but could also incentivize mission failure and insider sabotage, reflecting a lack of internal controls and safeguards.
- Jurisdictional Dispute: The CFTC recently filed a legal brief asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over U.S. commodity derivatives markets, emphasizing that state governments should not undermine its regulatory authority by imposing local prohibitions, demonstrating the CFTC's commitment to maintaining regulatory independence.
See More
OSB Group Purchases 93,800 Ordinary Shares
- Buyback Program Execution: On February 19, 2026, OSB Group purchased 93,800 ordinary shares through Citigroup Global Markets Limited, reflecting the company's confidence in its stock value and expected to enhance investor trust.
- Price Range Analysis: The highest price paid for the repurchased shares was 614.00 pence, with a lowest price of 594.50 pence and a volume-weighted average price of 600.41 pence, indicating a cautious buyback strategy amid market fluctuations.
- Change in Share Count: Following the buyback, OSB Group's total number of ordinary shares will decrease to 353,264,299, with no treasury shares held, directly impacting the company's voting rights structure and enhancing shareholder control.
- Compliance Statement: This transaction complies with Article 5(1)(b) of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014, ensuring transparency and compliance, further solidifying the company's reputation in the capital markets.
See More
OSB Group Purchases 73,000 Ordinary Shares
- Buyback Program Execution: On February 17, 2026, OSB Group purchased 73,000 ordinary shares through its broker Citigroup Global Markets Limited, reflecting the company's confidence in its stock value and expected to enhance investor trust.
- Price Range Analysis: The highest price paid for the repurchased shares was 604.50 pence, with a lowest price of 594.50 pence and a volume-weighted average price of 599.49 pence, indicating a cautious buyback strategy amid market fluctuations.
- Change in Share Count: Following the buyback, OSB Group's total ordinary shares will decrease to 353,427,279, with no treasury shares held, directly impacting the company's voting rights structure and enhancing shareholder control.
- Compliance Statement: This transaction complies with EU Regulation No. 596/2014, ensuring transparency and regulatory adherence, further enhancing the company's credibility in the capital markets.
See More
US Senator Proposes Ban on War Prediction Markets
- Controversy Over Prediction Markets: Senator Chris Murphy expressed concerns about prediction markets related to the death of Iranian leader Khamenei, labeling it 'insane' and announcing plans to introduce legislation to ban such markets, highlighting the ethical implications of profiting from war.
- Legislative Proposal Context: Murphy emphasized that individuals around Trump are profiting from war and death, calling for transparency and oversight in prediction markets to prevent advance knowledge of military actions from being monetized, reflecting a significant concern for national security.
- Formation of New Trade Group: A new organization led by former Trump Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, named 'Gambling Is Not Investing', aims to advocate for stricter regulations on prediction markets, indicating lawmakers' increasing focus on market transparency and consumer protection.
- Market Response and Company Statements: Prediction market Kalshi stated it does not allow markets directly tied to death and issued refunds for related bets, emphasizing its commitment to compliance and transparency in its operations, showcasing a cautious approach to legal and ethical boundaries.
See More
OSB Group Purchases 88,449 Ordinary Shares
- Buyback Program Execution: On February 27, 2026, OSB Group purchased a total of 88,449 ordinary shares through its broker Citigroup Global Markets Limited, reflecting the company's confidence in its stock value and expected to enhance investor trust.
- Price Range of Transactions: The repurchased ordinary shares were acquired at prices ranging from 606.00 pence to 618.50 pence, with a volume-weighted average price of 611.58 pence, indicating a prudent buyback strategy amid market fluctuations.
- Impact of Share Cancellation: The repurchased shares will be cancelled, reducing the total number of ordinary shares in issue to 352,746,901, which will directly affect the company's earnings per share and shareholder equity, potentially enhancing per-share value.
- Voting Rights Update: Following the buyback and cancellation, the total voting rights of the company will be 352,746,901, which shareholders must use as the denominator for calculating their interest, ensuring transparency and compliance.
See More
Hidden Dangers in the Stock Market: Pay Attention to These Warning Signs.
- Market Behavior: The stock market is currently experiencing sideways movement with low volatility.
- Investor Sentiment: This trend indicates that investors may be satisfied with the current economic conditions or are not overly worried about existing risks.
See More
Democratic Senators Express Concerns Over Prediction Market Contracts
- Contract Safety Concerns: Six Democratic senators expressed strong concerns in a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding prediction market contracts that could incentivize physical harm or death, urging the CFTC to categorically prohibit such contracts due to national security risks.
- Regulatory Oversight Gaps: The letter highlights increasing scrutiny over the regulation of prediction markets like Polymarket, particularly regarding their potential contribution to gambling addiction and the risks of insider trading, indicating significant deficiencies in the current regulatory framework.
- Specific Case Analysis: The senators cited three contracts from Polymarket, including one related to a NASA mission, noting that these contracts not only correlated with potential loss of life but could also incentivize mission failure and insider sabotage, reflecting a lack of internal controls and safeguards.
- Jurisdictional Dispute: The CFTC recently filed a legal brief asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over U.S. commodity derivatives markets, emphasizing that state governments should not undermine its regulatory authority by imposing local prohibitions, demonstrating the CFTC's commitment to maintaining regulatory independence.
See More
OSB Group Purchases 93,800 Ordinary Shares
- Buyback Program Execution: On February 19, 2026, OSB Group purchased 93,800 ordinary shares through Citigroup Global Markets Limited, reflecting the company's confidence in its stock value and expected to enhance investor trust.
- Price Range Analysis: The highest price paid for the repurchased shares was 614.00 pence, with a lowest price of 594.50 pence and a volume-weighted average price of 600.41 pence, indicating a cautious buyback strategy amid market fluctuations.
- Change in Share Count: Following the buyback, OSB Group's total number of ordinary shares will decrease to 353,264,299, with no treasury shares held, directly impacting the company's voting rights structure and enhancing shareholder control.
- Compliance Statement: This transaction complies with Article 5(1)(b) of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014, ensuring transparency and compliance, further solidifying the company's reputation in the capital markets.
See More
OSB Group Purchases 73,000 Ordinary Shares
- Buyback Program Execution: On February 17, 2026, OSB Group purchased 73,000 ordinary shares through its broker Citigroup Global Markets Limited, reflecting the company's confidence in its stock value and expected to enhance investor trust.
- Price Range Analysis: The highest price paid for the repurchased shares was 604.50 pence, with a lowest price of 594.50 pence and a volume-weighted average price of 599.49 pence, indicating a cautious buyback strategy amid market fluctuations.
- Change in Share Count: Following the buyback, OSB Group's total ordinary shares will decrease to 353,427,279, with no treasury shares held, directly impacting the company's voting rights structure and enhancing shareholder control.
- Compliance Statement: This transaction complies with EU Regulation No. 596/2014, ensuring transparency and regulatory adherence, further enhancing the company's credibility in the capital markets.
See More
