UBS Reports WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) 3Q Adjusted EBITDA Matches Estimates but Falls Short of Consensus
Wynn Macau Financial Performance: Wynn Macau reported a luck-adjusted EBITDA of USD285 million for Q3 2025, slightly below the street consensus of USD290-300 million, according to UBS.
Parent Company Results: Wynn Resorts, the parent company, achieved an adjusted property EBITDAR of USD308 million for its Macau operations in Q3 2025, marking a 17% year-over-year increase and a 22% quarter-over-quarter rise.
EBITDA Margin Improvement: The EBITDA margin for Wynn Macau improved to 30.8% quarter-over-quarter after adjusting for VIP hold impacts.
Analyst Ratings: UBS has maintained a target price of HKD8.4 for Wynn Macau and continues to hold a Buy rating on the stock.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 01128
About the author
JPM Suggests Focused Investment Strategy, Identifies GALAXY ENT as Preferred Choice; February GGR Exceeds Expectations
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for February increased by 4% year-on-year to MOP20.6 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a notable surge in the last week of February driven by high-end customer demand.
Investor Recommendations: JPMorgan advised investors to be selective, favoring GALAXY ENT with a target price of HKD52, while rating SJM HOLDINGS and MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT as Underweight with lower target prices.
M Stanley: GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD Favorably Viewed for Steady Cash Flow Growth and Dividends in the Casino Sector
Macau Casino Performance: The Lunar New Year performance for Macau casinos was moderate, raising concerns from Morgan Stanley about profit pressures due to promotional activities, despite better GGR performance compared to other Chinese consumers.
Positive Financial Indicators: Continuous growth in cash flow and dividends makes casino valuations attractive, with no AI risks impacting the sector.
Broker Recommendations: CLSA predicts a 7.4% YoY increase in February GGR due to a stronger-than-expected visitor influx, favoring GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA for their high dividends.
Morgan Stanley Ratings: Morgan Stanley's ratings for Macau casinos include "Overweight" for SANDS CHINA, GALAXY ENT, WYNN MACAU, and Melco Resorts, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated "Underweight" due to potential EBITDA fluctuations.
HSBC Research Maintains Buy Ratings on SANDS CHINA LTD, GALAXY ENT, and MGM CHINA; Spring Festival Visitor Numbers Show Strong Travel Spending Resilience
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of February reached MOP14.3 billion, averaging MOP786 million per day, with a notable increase during the Chinese New Year Golden Week.
Daily GGR Trends: The average daily GGR was initially sluggish but accelerated to MOP1.2-1.3 billion in the last three days of the period, reflecting a 10-15% increase compared to the same timeframe last year.
Citi's GGR Forecast Adjustment: Citi has lowered its GGR forecast for Macau in February to MOP19.5 billion, indicating a more cautious outlook.
Stock Performance Overview: The report includes stock performance data for major gaming companies in Macau, highlighting short selling ratios and price changes for companies like Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, Sands China, SJM Holdings, and Wynn Macau.
JPM Adjusts February GGR Projections, Names GALAXY ENT as Preferred Choice
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of February reached MOP14.3 billion, with a daily average of MOP650 million, falling short of JPMorgan's expectations during the Lunar New Year period.
Forecast Adjustments: Due to mixed performance, JPMorgan revised its February GGR forecast to a flat to 2% increase year-on-year, down from a previous estimate of 2-5% growth, while maintaining a 12-13% growth expectation for the first two months of 2026.
Casino Stock Preferences: JPMorgan updated its preference order for Macau casino stocks, ranking Galaxy Entertainment as the top pick, followed by MGM China and Sands China, all rated Overweight, while Melco Resorts and SJM Holdings were rated Underweight.
Market Reactions: The report noted a decline in casino stocks, with Sands China slipping 2.5% after Citi cut its GGR forecast, reflecting broader market concerns about the gaming sector's performance.
UBS Research: Lunar New Year Daily GGR Average Falls Short; Recommended Stocks Include Melco Resorts, WYNN Macau, and MGM China
Macau GGR Performance: UBS reported that Macau's average daily Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) during the Lunar New Year holiday was approximately MOP786 million, falling short of market expectations of MOP900-950 million, although it accelerated towards the end of the holiday.
Year-on-Year Comparison: The GGR run-rate increased to MOP1.2-1.3 billion per day in the last three days of the holiday, marking a 10-15% year-on-year increase, but the average daily GGR for the month to date remains down about 8% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month.
UBS Stock Recommendations: UBS identified Melco Resorts, WYNN Macau, and MGM China as top picks in the Macau gaming sector, with all receiving a "Buy" rating and specific target prices set for each stock.
Investment Ratings Overview: The report includes investment ratings and target prices for various Macau gaming stocks, with Melco Resorts at US$9.5, WYNN Macau at HK$8.9, MGM China at HK$18.5, and Galaxy Entertainment at HK$46.9, among others.
Citi Expresses Optimism for GALAXY ENT; Missouri Gaming Industry Off to a Strong Start
Macau Gaming Industry Performance: The Macau gaming industry has started the year positively, with a record average wager per player of HKD29,625, marking a 13% increase compared to the previous year. Citi forecasts a 1% year-over-year growth in Macau's GGR to MOP20 billion for February.
Visitor Influx Impact: CLSA anticipates a 7.4% year-over-year increase in February GGR due to a stronger-than-expected influx of visitors during the Golden Week.
Stock Ratings and Recommendations: Citi maintains an optimistic outlook on the Macau gaming market, favoring stocks like GALAXY ENT, MGM CHINA, and SANDS CHINA, while rating SJM HOLDINGS as a sell.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for various companies, indicating varying levels of short interest, with SANDS CHINA showing the highest short selling ratio at 29.547%.
JPM Suggests Focused Investment Strategy, Identifies GALAXY ENT as Preferred Choice; February GGR Exceeds Expectations
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for February increased by 4% year-on-year to MOP20.6 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a notable surge in the last week of February driven by high-end customer demand.
Investor Recommendations: JPMorgan advised investors to be selective, favoring GALAXY ENT with a target price of HKD52, while rating SJM HOLDINGS and MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT as Underweight with lower target prices.
M Stanley: GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA LTD Favorably Viewed for Steady Cash Flow Growth and Dividends in the Casino Sector
Macau Casino Performance: The Lunar New Year performance for Macau casinos was moderate, raising concerns from Morgan Stanley about profit pressures due to promotional activities, despite better GGR performance compared to other Chinese consumers.
Positive Financial Indicators: Continuous growth in cash flow and dividends makes casino valuations attractive, with no AI risks impacting the sector.
Broker Recommendations: CLSA predicts a 7.4% YoY increase in February GGR due to a stronger-than-expected visitor influx, favoring GALAXY ENT and SANDS CHINA for their high dividends.
Morgan Stanley Ratings: Morgan Stanley's ratings for Macau casinos include "Overweight" for SANDS CHINA, GALAXY ENT, WYNN MACAU, and Melco Resorts, while SJM HOLDINGS is rated "Underweight" due to potential EBITDA fluctuations.
HSBC Research Maintains Buy Ratings on SANDS CHINA LTD, GALAXY ENT, and MGM CHINA; Spring Festival Visitor Numbers Show Strong Travel Spending Resilience
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of February reached MOP14.3 billion, averaging MOP786 million per day, with a notable increase during the Chinese New Year Golden Week.
Daily GGR Trends: The average daily GGR was initially sluggish but accelerated to MOP1.2-1.3 billion in the last three days of the period, reflecting a 10-15% increase compared to the same timeframe last year.
Citi's GGR Forecast Adjustment: Citi has lowered its GGR forecast for Macau in February to MOP19.5 billion, indicating a more cautious outlook.
Stock Performance Overview: The report includes stock performance data for major gaming companies in Macau, highlighting short selling ratios and price changes for companies like Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, Sands China, SJM Holdings, and Wynn Macau.
JPM Adjusts February GGR Projections, Names GALAXY ENT as Preferred Choice
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of February reached MOP14.3 billion, with a daily average of MOP650 million, falling short of JPMorgan's expectations during the Lunar New Year period.
Forecast Adjustments: Due to mixed performance, JPMorgan revised its February GGR forecast to a flat to 2% increase year-on-year, down from a previous estimate of 2-5% growth, while maintaining a 12-13% growth expectation for the first two months of 2026.
Casino Stock Preferences: JPMorgan updated its preference order for Macau casino stocks, ranking Galaxy Entertainment as the top pick, followed by MGM China and Sands China, all rated Overweight, while Melco Resorts and SJM Holdings were rated Underweight.
Market Reactions: The report noted a decline in casino stocks, with Sands China slipping 2.5% after Citi cut its GGR forecast, reflecting broader market concerns about the gaming sector's performance.
UBS Research: Lunar New Year Daily GGR Average Falls Short; Recommended Stocks Include Melco Resorts, WYNN Macau, and MGM China
Macau GGR Performance: UBS reported that Macau's average daily Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) during the Lunar New Year holiday was approximately MOP786 million, falling short of market expectations of MOP900-950 million, although it accelerated towards the end of the holiday.
Year-on-Year Comparison: The GGR run-rate increased to MOP1.2-1.3 billion per day in the last three days of the holiday, marking a 10-15% year-on-year increase, but the average daily GGR for the month to date remains down about 8% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month.
UBS Stock Recommendations: UBS identified Melco Resorts, WYNN Macau, and MGM China as top picks in the Macau gaming sector, with all receiving a "Buy" rating and specific target prices set for each stock.
Investment Ratings Overview: The report includes investment ratings and target prices for various Macau gaming stocks, with Melco Resorts at US$9.5, WYNN Macau at HK$8.9, MGM China at HK$18.5, and Galaxy Entertainment at HK$46.9, among others.
Citi Expresses Optimism for GALAXY ENT; Missouri Gaming Industry Off to a Strong Start
Macau Gaming Industry Performance: The Macau gaming industry has started the year positively, with a record average wager per player of HKD29,625, marking a 13% increase compared to the previous year. Citi forecasts a 1% year-over-year growth in Macau's GGR to MOP20 billion for February.
Visitor Influx Impact: CLSA anticipates a 7.4% year-over-year increase in February GGR due to a stronger-than-expected influx of visitors during the Golden Week.
Stock Ratings and Recommendations: Citi maintains an optimistic outlook on the Macau gaming market, favoring stocks like GALAXY ENT, MGM CHINA, and SANDS CHINA, while rating SJM HOLDINGS as a sell.
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for various companies, indicating varying levels of short interest, with SANDS CHINA showing the highest short selling ratio at 29.547%.
