Tax Season Refund Growth Boosts Multiple Stocks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AXP?
Source: CNBC
- Tax Refund Increase: As of February 13, the average tax refund stands at $2,476, reflecting a 14.2% year-over-year increase, which is expected to positively impact retail stocks, particularly enhancing spending power for low-income households.
- Stimulus Measures Impact: The provisions from the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' could provide an average of about $1,000 in stimulus per household, primarily from increased state and local tax deduction caps and a new deduction for overtime pay, leading to larger tax refunds and reduced tax payments.
- Retail Stock Benefits: Analysts highlight Ross Stores as a buy-rated stock that could benefit from increased tax refunds, given its ability to achieve outsized growth during economic volatility and significant new store growth potential, with shares surging nearly 12% this year.
- Consumer Spending Trends: Over a third of consumers plan to use their tax refunds to pay down debt, while 13% intend to save, which could positively impact stocks like Synchrony Financial, with analysts projecting a 25% upside potential from current levels.
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Analyst Views on AXP
Wall Street analysts forecast AXP stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 308.900
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
Current: 308.900
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
About AXP
American Express Company is a globally integrated payments company with card-issuing, merchant-acquiring and card network businesses. It offers products and services to a range of customers, including consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and large corporations around the world. Its segments include U.S. Consumer Services (USCS), Commercial Services (CS), International Card Services (ICS) and Global Merchant and Network Services (GMNS). USCS offers travel and lifestyle services as well as banking and non-card financing products. CS offers payment and expense management, banking and non-card financing products. ICS provides services to international customers, including travel and lifestyle services, and manages certain international joint ventures and its loyalty coalition business. GMNS operates a payments network that processes and settles card transactions, acquires merchants and provides multichannel marketing programs and capabilities, services and data analytics.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Performance: In Q4 2025, American Express reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase to $19 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) rising 16% to $3.53, showcasing strong operational leverage and a solid foundation for future growth.
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- Domino's Pizza Stake Increase: Berkshire Hathaway added 368,055 shares of Domino's Pizza, valued at $1.09 billion, representing a 12% increase from the previous quarter, highlighting Buffett's preference for industry leaders, especially amid economic uncertainty.
- Global Sales Growth: Despite inflationary pressures, Domino's reported a 4.9% year-over-year increase in global retail sales and a 3.7% rise in comparable sales for Q4 of fiscal 2025, demonstrating its resilience and stability in the market.
- Investment Strategy Insights: Buffett's investment suggests that while Domino's is not a growth stock, its stable dividend yield of 1.7% serves as a reminder for investors to maintain a diversified portfolio to mitigate potential market volatility, especially as the market reaches new highs.
See More
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- Sales and Profit Growth: Domino's Pizza reported a 4.9% year-over-year increase in global retail sales and a 3.7% rise in comparable sales for Q4 FY2025, demonstrating resilience amid economic uncertainty and reinforcing its market leadership.
- Buffett's Increased Stake: Berkshire Hathaway added 368,055 shares of Domino's Pizza valued at $1.09 billion, marking a 12% increase from the previous quarter, indicating Buffett's confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
- High-Margin Business Model: As a franchise business, Domino's profits from franchise fees, with Q4 net revenue up 6.4% and operating income up 8%, showcasing the effectiveness of its high-margin business model.
- Stable Dividend Returns: With a current dividend yield of 1.7%, Domino's provides reliable passive income despite a 14% decline in stock price over the past year, enhancing its appeal as a component of a diversified investment portfolio.
See More
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- Dividend Increase: American Express has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.95 per share, marking a 15.9% increase from the previous $0.82 per share, indicating ongoing improvements in profitability and cash flow, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Yield Metrics: Following this increase, the forward yield stands at 1.24%, providing an attractive option for income-seeking investors while reflecting the company's confidence in its future financial health.
- Payment Schedule: The new dividend will be payable on May 8, with a record date of April 3 and an ex-dividend date also on April 3, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and further solidifying shareholder loyalty.
- Market Response: Despite recent market volatility, the dividend increase underscores American Express's appeal as a stable investment, likely attracting more attention from investors seeking reliable returns.
See More
American Express Raises Quarterly Dividend by 16%
- Dividend Increase: American Express raised its quarterly dividend by 16% to $0.95 per share, highlighting its strong earnings momentum and potential for future dividend growth despite a 17% year-to-date stock decline.
- Strong Performance: In Q4 2025, the company reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase to $19 billion net of interest expense, with earnings per share (EPS) rising 16% to $3.53, showcasing impressive operating leverage.
- Future Outlook: Management's guidance for 2026 EPS of $17.30 to $17.90 implies a robust year-over-year growth rate of approximately 14.4%, providing ample capacity to cover the new annualized dividend payout while maintaining a low payout ratio of 21.6% for future hikes.
- Capital Return: In 2025, American Express returned $7.6 billion to shareholders, including $2.3 billion in dividends and $5.3 billion in share repurchases, reflecting a strong commitment to capital return, with a 7% reduction in share count since 2022.
See More
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- Significant Dividend Increase: American Express raised its quarterly dividend by 16% to $0.95 per share, reflecting the company's strong earnings momentum and potential for future dividend growth, with a dividend yield of 1.2% appealing to income-seeking investors.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Management's guidance for 2026 EPS of $17.30 to $17.90 implies approximately 14.4% year-over-year growth, providing ample capacity to cover the new annualized payout of $3.80 per share, indicating sustained profitability.
- Aggressive Share Buyback: In 2025, American Express returned $7.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including $5.3 billion in buybacks, demonstrating a strong commitment to capital return, having reduced its share count by about 7% since 2022.
- Market Risks to Consider: Despite the strong performance, investors should be cautious of potential risks such as cooling consumer spending or economic headwinds that could push credit delinquency rates higher, potentially impacting profitability and stock performance.
See More
American Express Raises Quarterly Dividend by 16%
- Dividend Increase: American Express raised its quarterly dividend by 16% to $0.95 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.2%, which highlights its appeal as a dividend stock despite a 17% year-to-date decline in share price, indicating resilience amid market pressures.
- Strong Performance: In Q4 2025, American Express reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase to $19 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) rising 16% to $3.53, showcasing strong operational leverage and a solid foundation for future growth.
- Future Outlook: Management's guidance for 2026 EPS between $17.30 and $17.90 implies a robust year-over-year growth rate of approximately 14.4%, with a low payout ratio of 21.6% providing ample room for future dividend increases, enhancing investor confidence in sustained returns.
- Capital Return: In 2025, American Express returned $7.6 billion to shareholders, including $2.3 billion in dividends and $5.3 billion in share repurchases, reflecting an aggressive capital return strategy, with a 7% reduction in share count since 2022, further supporting stock value.
See More
