Sees FY26 Adjusted EBITDA at $455M-$475M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
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Should l Buy COLL?
Sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $455M-$475M
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Analyst Views on COLL
Wall Street analysts forecast COLL stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 41.600
Low
55.00
Averages
56.75
High
60.00
Current: 41.600
Low
55.00
Averages
56.75
High
60.00
About COLL
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a diversified biopharmaceutical company. The Company has developed, licensed, and acquired a portfolio of products for use in the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and moderate to severe pain. Its commercial products include Jornay PM (Jornay), Belbuca, Xtampza ER (Xtampza), Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR (Nucynta Products), and Symproic in the United States. Its Jornay is a central nervous system (CNS) stimulant prescription medicine for the treatment of ADHD. The Belbuca is a buccal film that contains buprenorphine for severe and persistent pain. Xtampza ER is an abuse-deterrent, extended-release, oral formulation of oxycodone. The Xtampza ER is a pain treatment option designed with abuse deterrent properties. The Nucynta Products are ER and IR oral formulations of tapentadol. Nucynta ER is indicated for the management of severe and persistent pain that requires an extended treatment period with a daily opioid analgesic.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.

- Significant Revenue Growth: Collegium Pharmaceutical reported net revenues of $780.6 million for 2025, a 24% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $460.5 million, up 15%, reflecting strong performance in its pain portfolio and Jornay PM.
- Jornay PM Outperformance: Jornay PM achieved net revenues of $45.9 million in Q4 2025, a 57% year-over-year increase, with projections for 2026 revenue between $190 million and $200 million, indicating over 30% annual growth and solidifying its leadership in the ADHD treatment market.
- Enhanced Capital Flexibility: The company successfully closed a $980 million syndicated credit facility, significantly improving interest rates and debt terms, providing additional flexibility for future business expansion and diversification to support strategic investments.
- Ongoing Investments and Market Outlook: Management anticipates 2026 product revenue guidance of $805 million to $825 million, driven by Jornay growth and stable revenues from the pain portfolio, demonstrating confidence in future growth prospects.
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- Profit Growth: Collegium Pharmaceutical reported a fourth-quarter profit of $16.96 million, translating to $0.46 per share, which marks a significant increase from last year's $12.54 million and $0.36 per share, indicating enhanced profitability.
- Adjusted Earnings: Excluding items, the company reported adjusted earnings of $80.30 million or $2.04 per share, showcasing strong performance in its core business and improved profitability metrics.
- Revenue Increase: The company's revenue rose by 12.9% year-over-year to $205.45 million from $181.95 million last year, reflecting robust market demand and increased product sales.
- Market Positioning: The growth in both profit and revenue not only boosts investor confidence but also helps Collegium solidify its market position in the competitive pharmaceutical landscape, paving the way for future business expansion.
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- Q4 Earnings Miss: Collegium Pharmaceutical reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $2.04, missing estimates by $0.10, indicating potential challenges in profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth Challenges: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $205.4 million, a 12.9% year-over-year increase, yet fell short of expectations by $0.96 million, reflecting intensified market competition and slowing product sales growth.
- 2026 Revenue Guidance: Collegium reaffirmed its 2026 product revenue guidance of $805 to $825 million and Jornay PM revenue guidance of $190 to $200 million, indicating cautious optimism for future performance while remaining attentive to market dynamics.
- Adjusted EBITDA Outlook: The company anticipates an adjusted EBITDA range of $455 to $475 million for 2026, maintaining stability but highlighting the need for effective cost control and market expansion strategies to achieve these targets.
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- Earnings Announcement Date: Collegium Pharmaceutical is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 26 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.14, reflecting a 22.3% year-over-year growth, indicating ongoing profitability improvements.
- Revenue Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q4 is $206.36 million, representing a 13.4% year-over-year increase, which underscores Collegium's robust performance in market demand and product sales, potentially strengthening its market position.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Collegium has exceeded EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 88% of the time, showcasing the company's consistency and reliability in financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions for EPS or revenue estimates, with one downward revision each, which may reflect a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future growth, prompting investors to closely monitor the upcoming earnings report for clearer insights.
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- Executive Transaction Overview: On December 8, 2025, Collegium Pharmaceutical's EVP Scott Dreyer exercised options and immediately sold 17,600 common shares for approximately $847,800, indicating a strategic liquidity management approach by the executive.
- Holding Change Analysis: Following the transaction, Dreyer's direct holdings remained at 103,613 shares, reflecting no net gain in ownership and demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
- Trading Plan Context: The transaction was executed under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on September 3, 2025, indicating that Dreyer's sale was prearranged rather than discretionary, which mitigates market speculation regarding his motivations.
- Company Financial Outlook: Collegium Pharmaceutical showed strong performance in 2025 and is expected to benefit from the success of its ADHD and pain medication portfolio in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA expectations raised from $455 million to $475 million, highlighting the company's growth potential.
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- Insider Sale: Collegium Pharmaceutical's EVP Scott Dreyer sold 17,600 shares through options exercise for approximately $847,800, reducing his direct holdings to 103,613 shares, indicating a liquidity need despite the company's strong performance.
- Stock Surge: COLL shares surged nearly 60% in 2025, reaching an all-time high of $50.79 on December 29, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's ADHD and pain medication portfolio, which is expected to drive future growth.
- Upgraded Financial Outlook: Collegium raised its Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance from $455 million to $475 million, with Q1-Q3 EBITDA already at $401.18 million, showcasing the company's sustained financial strength.
- Compliance with Trading Plan: Dreyer's share sale was executed under a 10b5-1 trading plan, indicating compliance with regulations and alleviating concerns over insider trading, while also laying a foundation for the company's future growth.
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