Q1 2026 EBITDA Expected to Be Flat
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 23 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AESI?
For the first quarter of 2026, EBITDA is expected to be flat with fourth quarter results due to lower realized sand pricing and the impact of severe winter weather in January, which negatively impacted EBITDA generation by approximately $6 million, offsetting improved volumes in sand and logistics and increased contribution from the Power business.
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Analyst Views on AESI
Wall Street analysts forecast AESI stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 9.630
Low
7.00
Averages
10.49
High
16.00
Current: 9.630
Low
7.00
Averages
10.49
High
16.00
About AESI
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is a solution provider to the energy industry. Its portfolio of offerings includes oilfield logistics, distributed power systems, and the proppant supply network in the Permian Basin. Its hundred percent of Atlas LLC’s sand reserves are located in Texas within the Permian Basin and operations consist of proppant production and processing facilities, including four facilities near Kermit, Texas (together, the Kermit facilities), a fifth facility near Monahans, Texas, and the OnCore distributed mining network. Sand and Logistics segments provide locally sourced over 100 mesh and 40/70 sand used as a proppant during the well completion process. Also, it provides a differentiated logistics platform that includes its fleet of fit-for-purpose trucks, trailers, and the Dune Express, an overland conveyor infrastructure solution. The Power segment provides distributed power solutions through a fleet of approximately 950 natural gas-powered reciprocating generators.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Atlas Energy Solutions Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strong Financial Performance: Atlas Energy Solutions reported an adjusted EBITDA of $36.7 million and revenue of $249 million for Q4 2025, achieving a 15% adjusted EBITDA margin, indicating effective cost control alongside stable revenue generation.
- Accelerated Strategic Transition: The company aims to deploy over 500 megawatts of power generation equipment by 2027, having ordered 240 megawatts, marking a shift from a generator rental model to a power-as-a-service approach, which is expected to significantly enhance future revenue streams.
- Effective Cost Management: Despite elevated maintenance costs, Atlas has reduced plant operating costs to $12.28 per ton, benefiting from optimized equipment usage and reduced rental expenses, which is anticipated to further strengthen profitability.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Management expresses confidence in the future of the power business despite pricing pressures in sand and logistics, with expected sales volume growth of approximately 10% sequentially in Q1 and plans to expand market share in the coming months.
See More
Atlas Energy Solutions Reports Q4 2025 Earnings
- Revenue Decline: Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported revenue of $249.43 million for Q4 2025, an 8.1% decrease year-over-year, indicating pressure in market competition that could affect future investor confidence.
- Earnings Per Share Performance: The company posted an EPS of -$0.22, a significant drop from $0.06 in the same quarter last year, failing to meet investor expectations for profitability, which may lead to downward pressure on the stock price.
- Revenue Surpassing Expectations: Despite the overall revenue decline, the actual revenue exceeded the Zacks consensus estimate of $233.89 million by 6.65%, demonstrating resilience in certain areas that may attract short-term investor interest.
- Importance of Key Metrics: Analysts emphasize that while year-over-year figures are important, comparing key company metrics provides better insight into underlying performance, and investors should focus on these data points to better project stock price movements.
See More
Atlas Energy Solutions Reports Quarterly Loss in Line with Estimates
- Quarterly Loss Overview: Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $0.22 per share, aligning with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, contrasting sharply with earnings of $0.06 per share a year ago, indicating a significant decline in profitability.
- Revenue Performance Analysis: The company posted revenues of $249.43 million for the quarter, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.65%, yet down from $271.34 million year-over-year, suggesting potential market demand weakness impacting future performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: Since the beginning of the year, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. shares have risen approximately 24.3%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.9%, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future potential.
- Future Outlook and Rating: Although the current Zacks Rank is #3 (Hold), changes in earnings expectations for the upcoming quarters will be crucial for stock price movements, prompting investors to monitor overall industry performance and trends in earnings estimate revisions.
See More
Atlas Energy Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Highlights: Atlas Energy Solutions reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of -$0.18, beating expectations by $0.05, demonstrating resilience amid challenges despite an 8.1% year-over-year revenue decline.
- Revenue Performance: The Q4 revenue reached $249.43M, exceeding market expectations by $9.91M, indicating the company's ability to maintain revenue levels in a challenging market, which boosts investor confidence.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following the earnings report, Atlas Energy's shares rose by 4.55%, reflecting a positive market response to the company's financial performance, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Investment Strategy Shift: ClearBridge Small Cap Strategy added Upwork and exited Alexander & Baldwin in Q4, showcasing a keen understanding of market dynamics that may influence Atlas Energy's investor base.
See More
Atlas Energy Solution Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Atlas Energy Solution is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 23rd after market close, drawing significant attention from investors regarding its performance.
- EPS Expectations: The consensus EPS estimate stands at -$0.20, reflecting a staggering 253.8% year-over-year decline, indicating substantial profitability challenges that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Forecast Changes: The consensus revenue estimate is $239.52 million, representing an 11.7% year-over-year decrease, highlighting the company's struggles with revenue growth, which could impact future liquidity.
- Estimate Revision Trends: Over the past three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and one downward revision, while revenue estimates saw three upward and four downward revisions, indicating market uncertainty regarding the company's outlook.
See More
Howard Energy CEO Appointed to National Petroleum Council
- Leadership Appointment: Mike Howard, CEO of Howard Energy Partners, has been appointed to the National Petroleum Council by Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, highlighting his influence and expertise in the energy sector.
- Committee Background: Established in 1946, the National Petroleum Council advises the Secretary of Energy and the Executive Branch on matters related to the oil and gas industry, and Howard's appointment is expected to enhance the council's industry insights.
- Company Overview: Founded in 2011, Howard Energy is one of the largest private energy infrastructure companies in the U.S., owning a diverse portfolio of assets across Texas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, and Mexico, strategically positioned to meet the world's increasing energy demand.
- Social Responsibility: Howard demonstrates a strong commitment to expanding energy accessibility, viewing reliable and affordable energy as foundational to human progress, and is actively engaged in philanthropy and civic initiatives to promote economic empowerment.
See More
Atlas Energy Solutions Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strong Financial Performance: Atlas Energy Solutions reported an adjusted EBITDA of $36.7 million and revenue of $249 million for Q4 2025, achieving a 15% adjusted EBITDA margin, indicating effective cost control alongside stable revenue generation.
- Accelerated Strategic Transition: The company aims to deploy over 500 megawatts of power generation equipment by 2027, having ordered 240 megawatts, marking a shift from a generator rental model to a power-as-a-service approach, which is expected to significantly enhance future revenue streams.
- Effective Cost Management: Despite elevated maintenance costs, Atlas has reduced plant operating costs to $12.28 per ton, benefiting from optimized equipment usage and reduced rental expenses, which is anticipated to further strengthen profitability.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Management expresses confidence in the future of the power business despite pricing pressures in sand and logistics, with expected sales volume growth of approximately 10% sequentially in Q1 and plans to expand market share in the coming months.
See More
Atlas Energy Solutions Reports Q4 2025 Earnings
- Revenue Decline: Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported revenue of $249.43 million for Q4 2025, an 8.1% decrease year-over-year, indicating pressure in market competition that could affect future investor confidence.
- Earnings Per Share Performance: The company posted an EPS of -$0.22, a significant drop from $0.06 in the same quarter last year, failing to meet investor expectations for profitability, which may lead to downward pressure on the stock price.
- Revenue Surpassing Expectations: Despite the overall revenue decline, the actual revenue exceeded the Zacks consensus estimate of $233.89 million by 6.65%, demonstrating resilience in certain areas that may attract short-term investor interest.
- Importance of Key Metrics: Analysts emphasize that while year-over-year figures are important, comparing key company metrics provides better insight into underlying performance, and investors should focus on these data points to better project stock price movements.
See More
Atlas Energy Solutions Reports Quarterly Loss in Line with Estimates
- Quarterly Loss Overview: Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $0.22 per share, aligning with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, contrasting sharply with earnings of $0.06 per share a year ago, indicating a significant decline in profitability.
- Revenue Performance Analysis: The company posted revenues of $249.43 million for the quarter, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.65%, yet down from $271.34 million year-over-year, suggesting potential market demand weakness impacting future performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: Since the beginning of the year, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. shares have risen approximately 24.3%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.9%, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future potential.
- Future Outlook and Rating: Although the current Zacks Rank is #3 (Hold), changes in earnings expectations for the upcoming quarters will be crucial for stock price movements, prompting investors to monitor overall industry performance and trends in earnings estimate revisions.
See More
Atlas Energy Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Highlights: Atlas Energy Solutions reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of -$0.18, beating expectations by $0.05, demonstrating resilience amid challenges despite an 8.1% year-over-year revenue decline.
- Revenue Performance: The Q4 revenue reached $249.43M, exceeding market expectations by $9.91M, indicating the company's ability to maintain revenue levels in a challenging market, which boosts investor confidence.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following the earnings report, Atlas Energy's shares rose by 4.55%, reflecting a positive market response to the company's financial performance, potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Investment Strategy Shift: ClearBridge Small Cap Strategy added Upwork and exited Alexander & Baldwin in Q4, showcasing a keen understanding of market dynamics that may influence Atlas Energy's investor base.
See More
Atlas Energy Solution Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Atlas Energy Solution is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 23rd after market close, drawing significant attention from investors regarding its performance.
- EPS Expectations: The consensus EPS estimate stands at -$0.20, reflecting a staggering 253.8% year-over-year decline, indicating substantial profitability challenges that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Forecast Changes: The consensus revenue estimate is $239.52 million, representing an 11.7% year-over-year decrease, highlighting the company's struggles with revenue growth, which could impact future liquidity.
- Estimate Revision Trends: Over the past three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and one downward revision, while revenue estimates saw three upward and four downward revisions, indicating market uncertainty regarding the company's outlook.
See More
Howard Energy CEO Appointed to National Petroleum Council
- Leadership Appointment: Mike Howard, CEO of Howard Energy Partners, has been appointed to the National Petroleum Council by Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, highlighting his influence and expertise in the energy sector.
- Committee Background: Established in 1946, the National Petroleum Council advises the Secretary of Energy and the Executive Branch on matters related to the oil and gas industry, and Howard's appointment is expected to enhance the council's industry insights.
- Company Overview: Founded in 2011, Howard Energy is one of the largest private energy infrastructure companies in the U.S., owning a diverse portfolio of assets across Texas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, and Mexico, strategically positioned to meet the world's increasing energy demand.
- Social Responsibility: Howard demonstrates a strong commitment to expanding energy accessibility, viewing reliable and affordable energy as foundational to human progress, and is actively engaged in philanthropy and civic initiatives to promote economic empowerment.
See More
