ConocoPhillips projects $12 billion in capital expenditures for FY26
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 06 2025
0mins
Should l Buy COP?
Fourth-Quarter Production Expectations: The company anticipates production of 2.30 to 2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q4 2025.
Full-Year Production Guidance: Full-year production guidance has been increased to 2.375 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from the previous range of 2.35 to 2.37 million.
Adjusted Operating Costs: The full-year adjusted operating cost guidance has been lowered to $10.6 billion, compared to the earlier estimate of $10.7 to $10.9 billion.
2026 Preliminary Guidance: For 2026, capital expenditures are projected at approximately $12 billion, with adjusted operating costs expected to be $10.2 billion, indicating a slight decrease from 2025 guidance.
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Analyst Views on COP
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 118.240
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
Current: 118.240
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
About COP
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company. Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment consists of operations located in the 48 contiguous states in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia and commercial operations. The Europe, Middle East and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Qatar, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom. Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, Australia and commercial operations in China, Singapore and Japan. Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- U.S. Producers' Response: While U.S. producers have the capacity to ramp up production, the time required to bring newly drilled wells online due to infrastructure limitations means that they cannot quickly fill the supply gap in the short term, impacting market stability.
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- Cash Flow Surge: The company expects to generate an additional $1 billion in free cash flow this year, entirely from cost savings, alongside last year's $19.9 billion in operating cash flow, showcasing its strong profitability on a low-cost resource base.
- Repurchase Program: ConocoPhillips repurchased $5 billion of its shares last year and is expected to increase buybacks in 2026, having repurchased nearly 10% of its outstanding shares over the past five years, enhancing the growth potential of free cash flow per share.
- Future Outlook: With major expansion projects nearing completion, free cash flow is projected to nearly double in the coming years, and combined with rising oil prices and the repurchase program, the stock price could reach $200 by the end of the decade, reflecting strong market confidence in its long-term growth.
See More
Goldman Sachs CEO Discusses Iran War Impact on Markets
- Benign Market Reaction: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon remarked at the World Economic Forum that the financial markets have shown a surprisingly benign reaction to the ongoing Iran war, which has entered its fifth day, indicating that investor concerns may be less severe than anticipated.
- Increased Stock Volatility: U.S. stock markets have experienced heightened volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.83%, the S&P 500 slipping 0.94%, and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 1.02% on Tuesday, reflecting the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Rising Treasury Yields: Contrary to typical safe-haven behavior, U.S. Treasury yields are rising as investors worry about inflationary pressures from higher energy prices, leading to falling bond prices and increasing yields, which underscores the uncertainty surrounding future economic conditions.
- Oil Price Fluctuation Risks: International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 2.7% to $83.58 per barrel, with energy strategists warning that prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, further exacerbating global economic instability.
See More
Middle East Conflict Intensifies Challenges for Global Central Banks
- Oil Price Surge Impact: Following U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, Brent crude prices rose 1.6% to $82.76 per barrel, marking the highest level since January 2025, which will exacerbate global inflationary pressures and compel central banks to reassess their interest rate strategies.
- Central Bank Policy Dilemma: As tensions in the Middle East escalate, the European Central Bank faces a 'genuine dilemma' where rising oil prices could push already sticky inflation higher while economic growth outlook weakens due to U.S. tariffs, prompting officials to respond cautiously to energy price fluctuations.
- Asian Economic Vulnerability: Goldman Sachs estimates that a six-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices jumping from $70 to $85, could raise regional inflation in Asia by about 0.7 percentage points, with the Philippines and Thailand being the most vulnerable, potentially leading to a pause in rate cuts by their central banks.
- Fiscal Policy to Combat Inflation: Nomura anticipates that Asian countries will utilize fiscal policy as the first line of defense against inflation, potentially implementing price controls and increased subsidies, but this could exacerbate existing fiscal budget deficits, creating a policy dilemma for governments.
See More
Escalating Middle East Conflict Impacts Global Markets
- Market Turmoil Intensifies: South Korea's Kospi index fell 7.24% on Wednesday, extending its worst performance in 19 months, indicating severe investor sentiment impact due to escalating Middle East conflict.
- China's Policy Meeting in Focus: China's
See More
Crude Oil Prices Surge Amid U.S.-Iran Conflict
- Oil Price Surge: Following U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, Brent crude prices have surged over 5% today and approximately 15% over the past few days, directly boosting oil company stock prices and attracting investor interest.
- Oil Stocks Performance: Amid rising oil prices, ConocoPhillips shares have jumped nearly 8% in recent days, while Chevron closed at a record high of nearly $190 per share on Monday, reflecting strong market confidence in oil companies.
- Strait of Hormuz Risk: Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz jeopardizes approximately 20 million barrels of global oil supply daily, leading insurance companies to cancel war risk coverage and causing transportation costs to soar, which could further elevate oil prices.
- U.S. Production Capacity: Although U.S. oil producers have the capacity to ramp up production, the limitations of infrastructure and oilfield services mean that bringing new shale wells online can take months, making it difficult to alleviate upward pressure on oil prices in the short term.
See More
Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict, Impacting Stocks
- Surge in Oil Prices: The ongoing conflict with Iran has caused Brent crude prices to rise approximately 15% over the past few days, with a further increase of over 5% today, potentially pushing prices above $100 per barrel, which could have significant implications for global oil markets.
- U.S. Producers' Response: While U.S. producers have the capacity to ramp up production, the time required to bring newly drilled wells online due to infrastructure limitations means that they cannot quickly fill the supply gap in the short term, impacting market stability.
- Rising Transportation Costs: Attacks on several ships by Iran have led to record-high supertanker rates and the cancellation of war risk insurance by insurers, which increases the risks associated with transporting oil out of the region, further constraining oil flow from the Persian Gulf.
- Capital Expenditure Adjustments: In light of the unexpected surge in oil prices, ConocoPhillips has reduced its capital expenditure budget from $12.6 billion last year to $12 billion this year, while Chevron has increased its spending range to $18 billion-$19 billion, reflecting a cautious approach amid market uncertainties.
See More
