Online Travel Stocks Hit Hard by AI Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy BKNG?
Source: Benzinga
- Online Travel Stocks Plummet: Despite strong fourth-quarter performances from Booking Holdings, Expedia, and Tripadvisor, with Booking down 24%, Expedia down 27%, and Tripadvisor down 22%, the market is concerned about the future impact of AI on traditional travel agencies.
- Booking's Financial Performance: Booking reported fourth-quarter gross bookings of $40.2 billion and EBITDA of $2.2 billion, both exceeding expectations; however, the company anticipates slower profit growth and plans to invest approximately $700 million strategically by 2026, focusing on AI and other initiatives.
- Expedia's Aggressive Investment: Expedia's fourth-quarter bookings reached $27 billion and revenue $3.5 billion, both surpassing forecasts, with adjusted EBITDA of $848 million; management emphasized that while AI poses risks, the company's customer service and market share continue to grow.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: Despite the current stock slump, Booking and Expedia have 12-month price targets of $5,895 and $276, implying potential returns of 55% and 48%, respectively, suggesting that the market's fears of AI disruption may present investment opportunities.
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Analyst Views on BKNG
Wall Street analysts forecast BKNG stock price to rise
25 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 4239.350
Low
5407
Averages
6153
High
6850
Current: 4239.350
Low
5407
Averages
6153
High
6850
About BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc. is a provider of travel and restaurant online reservation and related services. The Company offers its services through five primary consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable. Through its brands, consumers can book an array of accommodations (including hotels, motels, resorts, homes, apartments, bed and breakfasts, hostels, and other alternative and traditional accommodation properties) and a flight to their destinations; make a car rental reservation or arrange for an airport taxi; make a dinner reservation; or book a vacation package, tour, activity, or cruise. Consumers can also use its meta-search services to easily compare travel reservation information, such as flight, hotel, and rental car reservations from hundreds of online travel platforms at once. Booking.com offers accommodation reservation services for approximately 4.0 million properties in over 220 countries and territories and in over 40 languages.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Surge in Searches: Agoda's data indicates that accommodation searches for Valentine's Day in Thailand increased by nearly 130% compared to last year, primarily due to the holiday falling on a weekend, making it more appealing for couples to plan romantic getaways.
- Surat Thani Popularity: Surat Thani emerged as the fastest-growing destination for couples, with searches increasing more than tenfold from last year, attracting those seeking romantic escapes, particularly with offerings like Chaweng Beach and long-tail boat journeys through Ang Thong National Marine Park.
- Mountain Destinations Favored: Kanchanaburi gained popularity among couples for its riverside landscapes and forest scenery, recording over threefold growth in search interest compared to last year, making it the fastest-growing choice among mountain destinations for those seeking natural surroundings.
- City Destination Appeal: Chonburi saw the highest growth in searches among city destinations, doubling compared to last year, combining urban convenience with coastal charm, appealing to couples looking for a balance between vibrancy and tranquility.
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- Record E-commerce Penetration: Walmart's e-commerce penetration reached 23%, a record high, which not only boosts operating income but also indicates successful digital transformation, further solidifying its market position.
- Booking Holdings Stock Volatility: Despite Booking Holdings posting strong earnings, its stock fell 7.5%, indicating market skepticism towards its 25-for-1 stock split, even as it forecasts 15% revenue growth for the upcoming quarter, reflecting investor concerns about future growth.
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- Flight Cancellations Impact: The closure of Middle Eastern airspace has led to over 1,560 flight cancellations, severely disrupting travel from Brazil to the Philippines, highlighting the profound impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global airline industry.
- Airline Stock Declines: Major airlines such as United, Delta, and American Airlines saw their stock prices drop by approximately 6%, reflecting investor concerns over profitability, particularly as United halted its most lucrative Tel Aviv route.
- Rising Oil Prices Affect Costs: The spike in oil prices significantly increases operational costs for airlines, especially those heavily reliant on international routes, further exacerbating market uncertainties.
- Hotel and Cruise Industries Hit: Shares of hotel chains like Marriott and Hilton fell, while cruise lines such as Royal Caribbean and Carnival experienced stock drops of 6% and 7%, respectively, indicating a broader impact on the travel sector.
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- Oil Prices Spike: The escalation of conflict has led to a significant rise in oil prices, with Brent crude hitting a 52-week high of over $78 on Monday, causing Exxon Mobil and Chevron shares to rise about 4% and ConocoPhillips to gain over 5%, reflecting market concerns over potential disruptions to global crude production and transport.
- Tankers Stocks Perform Well: In response to the military strikes in the Middle East, tanker stocks surged, with Frontline rising over 5%, DHT Holdings up 7%, and International Seaways increasing by 6%, showcasing heightened expectations for tanker transportation demand.
- Travel Stocks Decline: The conflict has caused oil prices to surge, disrupting global travel, leading to declines in travel stocks, with Expedia and Booking Holdings down 3.2% and 2.7%, respectively, Delta Air Lines falling 5.7%, and American Airlines and United Airlines dropping at least 6%, reflecting a pessimistic outlook for the travel industry.
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- Flight Cancellation Overview: Approximately 3,000 flights have been canceled since the conflict began, leaving travelers stranded globally, particularly in Australia, Brazil, and the Maldives, resulting in significant inconvenience and economic losses for airlines and passengers alike.
- Airspace Closure Impact: Following U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, airspace across the Middle East has been closed, severely affecting flights to and from major hubs like Dubai, Tel Aviv, and Doha, with over 40 flights forced to divert early Saturday morning.
- Airlines' Response Measures: Major airlines are repositioning aircraft to cope with the ongoing airspace closures, with Etihad starting to relocate its A380s from its Abu Dhabi hub, and they are expected to add extra flights once airspace reopens to accommodate the surge in demand.
- Travel Insurance Concerns: Standard travel insurance policies generally do not cover events that have already occurred, meaning travelers must have purchased more expensive
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- Supreme Leader Killed: Iran's state media reported the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei due to U.S. and Israeli strikes, marking a significant escalation in Middle Eastern tensions that could destabilize global markets and provoke wider military engagement.
- Iranian Retaliation: In response, Iran launched unprecedented missile strikes targeting U.S. military bases and allies in the region, resulting in damage and casualties at airports in Israel and the UAE, further intensifying the conflict and regional instability.
- Market Reaction Anticipated: Investors are bracing for risk-off trades, with safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar expected to rise, while equities may decline; oil prices are projected to increase by $5 to $7 per barrel, potentially surpassing $100 amid escalating tensions.
- Travel Chaos: The conflict has led to the cancellation of over 1,800 flights due to widespread airspace closures in the Middle East, with airlines like Qatar Airways and Emirates halting services, illustrating the extensive impact of the conflict on international travel and commerce.
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