Oneok Beats Q4 Expectations but 2026 Outlook Disappoints Investors
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy OKE?
Source: Fool
- Strong Q4 Performance: Oneok reported Q4 revenue of $9.07 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.55, which, despite a slight decline from the previous year, exceeded Wall Street expectations, demonstrating the company's resilience in challenging conditions.
- Weak Forward Guidance: The forecast for $8.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, only marginally above the $8.085 billion recorded in 2025, disappointed investors, reflecting concerns about future profitability amid competitive pressures.
- Natural Gas Price Volatility: Oneok anticipates pricing pressures due to lower hedged natural gas prices and supply competition, despite strong demand from AI data centers and LNG exports, indicating that price fluctuations pose a risk to the company's revenue stability.
- Dividend Stability: With a dividend yield of 4.8%, Oneok's dividend is expected to remain secure due to its fee-based model and strong market presence in Oklahoma, Texas, and the Midwest, although natural gas demand may be impacted by climate change factors.
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Analyst Views on OKE
Wall Street analysts forecast OKE stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 82.770
Low
75.00
Averages
86.00
High
110.00
Current: 82.770
Low
75.00
Averages
86.00
High
110.00
About OKE
ONEOK, Inc. is a midstream operator that provides gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage and marine export services. The Company's segments include Natural Gas Gathering and Processing; Natural Gas Liquids; Natural Gas Pipelines, and Refined Products and Crude. The Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment provides midstream services to producers in the Rocky Mountain region, the Mid-Continent region, the Permian Basin region and the North Texas region. The Natural Gas Liquids segment owns and operates facilities that gather, fractionate, treat and distribute natural gas liquids (NGLs) and store Purity NGLs, primarily in the Rocky Mountain region, Mid-Continent region, Permian Basin and Gulf Coast region (including Louisiana). The Natural Gas Pipelines segment transports, stores and markets natural gas. The Refined Products and Crude segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, blends and markets refined products and crude oil.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ONEOK Downgraded Amid Weak Q4 and 2026 Guidance
- Rating Downgrade: Wolfe downgraded ONEOK from Outperform to Peer Perform due to the company's weak Q4 performance and disappointing FY 2026 guidance, indicating growth challenges in a low commodity price environment.
- Limited Growth Outlook: Analyst Keith Stanley noted that despite $150 million in new synergies, ONEOK's FY 2026 EBITDA is expected to remain flat year-over-year, with core NGL and G&P segment volumes projected to be roughly flat, limiting significant growth in a $60 oil price scenario.
- Competitive Pressure: With investors increasingly focused on growth leaders, ONEOK faces heightened competitive pressure, particularly if oil prices do not rebound, and is projected to encounter approximately $100 million in headwinds in 2027 due to narrowing Permian gas spreads.
- Return Target Not Met: Although ONEOK offers a 5% yield, the combination of a 3%-4% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2028 fails to meet the desired total return target of over 10% for most stocks, reflecting investor concerns about its future performance.
See More
Oneok Reports Strong Earnings Growth in 2026
- Significant Earnings Growth: Oneok achieved over $8 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2026, marking an 18% increase and the 12th consecutive year of EBITDA growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 17%, showcasing its robust profitability and market competitiveness.
- Acquisition Synergies: The acquisitions of EnLink and Medallion in 2024 yielded an additional $250 million in synergies, which not only boosted operational volumes but also effectively offset the negative impacts of lower commodity prices, enhancing the company's financial stability.
- Future Growth Outlook: Although growth rates are expected to slow significantly in 2026, Oneok anticipates adjusted EBITDA between $7.9 billion and $8.3 billion this year, with plans to complete several major expansion projects by 2028, further driving future growth.
- Dividend Stability: Oneok plans to increase its 4.9% dividend by 3% to 4% annually, having already raised it by 4% for 2026, indicating a commitment to providing stable dividend growth over the past 25 years, which attracts numerous investors.
See More
Oneok's Earnings Growth Slows in 2026
- Earnings Growth Review: Oneok achieved over $8 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, marking an 18% increase and the 12th consecutive year of EBITDA growth, reflecting the synergies gained from acquisitions of EnLink and Medallion.
- Future Outlook: While growth will significantly slow in 2026, Oneok expects adjusted EBITDA to range between $7.9 billion and $8.3 billion this year, benefiting from higher volumes and $150 million in cost savings, although higher corporate costs and lower commodity prices pose challenges.
- Expansion Plans: Oneok plans to complete several major expansion projects by 2028, including a $1 billion investment in the Texas City Logistics export terminal and related pipeline, which are expected to enter commercial service, laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Dividend Stability: Recently increasing its dividend by 4%, Oneok aims for annual increases of 3% to 4%, demonstrating a commitment to providing stable dividends over the past 25 years, appealing to income-focused investors.
See More
ONEOK Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings with Strategic Growth Outlook
- Significant Revenue Growth: ONEOK reported a net income of $3.39 billion for 2025, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $8.02 billion, indicating strong market performance and enhanced profitability.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: The company returned $2.7 billion to shareholders in 2025 and announced a 4% increase in quarterly dividends, which not only boosts investor confidence but also reflects robust cash flow and financial management capabilities.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management expects a midpoint net income of $3.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $8.1 billion for 2026, supported by ongoing volume growth and acquisition synergies, demonstrating confidence in future growth prospects.
- Risk Factors Analysis: Management highlighted risks such as low oil prices, weather impacts, and delays in third-party projects; however, the company mitigates these risks through diversified assets and fee-based earnings, ensuring stable long-term performance.
See More
US Stocks Rebound Led by Software and Chipmakers
- Market Rebound: The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.77%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.76%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index climbed by 1.09%, indicating a recovery after Monday's sharp declines, reflecting investor optimism regarding economic data.
- Software and Chip Stocks Surge: Following AI startup Anthropic PBC's emphasis on partnerships, software and chip manufacturers saw significant stock price increases, indicating growing market confidence in the integration of AI technologies, which could enhance their competitive positioning.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The US February consumer confidence index rose by 2.2 to 91.2, surpassing expectations of 87.1, suggesting increased consumer optimism about the economic outlook, which may lead to higher consumer spending and positively impact economic growth.
- Interest Rates and Economic Data Focus: The market is discounting only a 2% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March 17-18 meeting, indicating cautious investor sentiment regarding future monetary policy, while closely monitoring upcoming corporate earnings and economic data releases.
See More
Oneok Beats Q4 Expectations but 2026 Outlook Disappoints Investors
- Strong Q4 Performance: Oneok reported Q4 revenue of $9.07 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.55, which, despite a slight decline from the previous year, exceeded Wall Street expectations, demonstrating the company's resilience in challenging conditions.
- Weak Forward Guidance: The forecast for $8.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, only marginally above the $8.085 billion recorded in 2025, disappointed investors, reflecting concerns about future profitability amid competitive pressures.
- Natural Gas Price Volatility: Oneok anticipates pricing pressures due to lower hedged natural gas prices and supply competition, despite strong demand from AI data centers and LNG exports, indicating that price fluctuations pose a risk to the company's revenue stability.
- Dividend Stability: With a dividend yield of 4.8%, Oneok's dividend is expected to remain secure due to its fee-based model and strong market presence in Oklahoma, Texas, and the Midwest, although natural gas demand may be impacted by climate change factors.
See More
ONEOK Downgraded Amid Weak Q4 and 2026 Guidance
- Rating Downgrade: Wolfe downgraded ONEOK from Outperform to Peer Perform due to the company's weak Q4 performance and disappointing FY 2026 guidance, indicating growth challenges in a low commodity price environment.
- Limited Growth Outlook: Analyst Keith Stanley noted that despite $150 million in new synergies, ONEOK's FY 2026 EBITDA is expected to remain flat year-over-year, with core NGL and G&P segment volumes projected to be roughly flat, limiting significant growth in a $60 oil price scenario.
- Competitive Pressure: With investors increasingly focused on growth leaders, ONEOK faces heightened competitive pressure, particularly if oil prices do not rebound, and is projected to encounter approximately $100 million in headwinds in 2027 due to narrowing Permian gas spreads.
- Return Target Not Met: Although ONEOK offers a 5% yield, the combination of a 3%-4% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2028 fails to meet the desired total return target of over 10% for most stocks, reflecting investor concerns about its future performance.
See More
Oneok Reports Strong Earnings Growth in 2026
- Significant Earnings Growth: Oneok achieved over $8 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2026, marking an 18% increase and the 12th consecutive year of EBITDA growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 17%, showcasing its robust profitability and market competitiveness.
- Acquisition Synergies: The acquisitions of EnLink and Medallion in 2024 yielded an additional $250 million in synergies, which not only boosted operational volumes but also effectively offset the negative impacts of lower commodity prices, enhancing the company's financial stability.
- Future Growth Outlook: Although growth rates are expected to slow significantly in 2026, Oneok anticipates adjusted EBITDA between $7.9 billion and $8.3 billion this year, with plans to complete several major expansion projects by 2028, further driving future growth.
- Dividend Stability: Oneok plans to increase its 4.9% dividend by 3% to 4% annually, having already raised it by 4% for 2026, indicating a commitment to providing stable dividend growth over the past 25 years, which attracts numerous investors.
See More
Oneok's Earnings Growth Slows in 2026
- Earnings Growth Review: Oneok achieved over $8 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, marking an 18% increase and the 12th consecutive year of EBITDA growth, reflecting the synergies gained from acquisitions of EnLink and Medallion.
- Future Outlook: While growth will significantly slow in 2026, Oneok expects adjusted EBITDA to range between $7.9 billion and $8.3 billion this year, benefiting from higher volumes and $150 million in cost savings, although higher corporate costs and lower commodity prices pose challenges.
- Expansion Plans: Oneok plans to complete several major expansion projects by 2028, including a $1 billion investment in the Texas City Logistics export terminal and related pipeline, which are expected to enter commercial service, laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Dividend Stability: Recently increasing its dividend by 4%, Oneok aims for annual increases of 3% to 4%, demonstrating a commitment to providing stable dividends over the past 25 years, appealing to income-focused investors.
See More
ONEOK Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings with Strategic Growth Outlook
- Significant Revenue Growth: ONEOK reported a net income of $3.39 billion for 2025, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $8.02 billion, indicating strong market performance and enhanced profitability.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: The company returned $2.7 billion to shareholders in 2025 and announced a 4% increase in quarterly dividends, which not only boosts investor confidence but also reflects robust cash flow and financial management capabilities.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management expects a midpoint net income of $3.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $8.1 billion for 2026, supported by ongoing volume growth and acquisition synergies, demonstrating confidence in future growth prospects.
- Risk Factors Analysis: Management highlighted risks such as low oil prices, weather impacts, and delays in third-party projects; however, the company mitigates these risks through diversified assets and fee-based earnings, ensuring stable long-term performance.
See More
US Stocks Rebound Led by Software and Chipmakers
- Market Rebound: The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.77%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.76%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index climbed by 1.09%, indicating a recovery after Monday's sharp declines, reflecting investor optimism regarding economic data.
- Software and Chip Stocks Surge: Following AI startup Anthropic PBC's emphasis on partnerships, software and chip manufacturers saw significant stock price increases, indicating growing market confidence in the integration of AI technologies, which could enhance their competitive positioning.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The US February consumer confidence index rose by 2.2 to 91.2, surpassing expectations of 87.1, suggesting increased consumer optimism about the economic outlook, which may lead to higher consumer spending and positively impact economic growth.
- Interest Rates and Economic Data Focus: The market is discounting only a 2% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March 17-18 meeting, indicating cautious investor sentiment regarding future monetary policy, while closely monitoring upcoming corporate earnings and economic data releases.
See More
Oneok Beats Q4 Expectations but 2026 Outlook Disappoints Investors
- Strong Q4 Performance: Oneok reported Q4 revenue of $9.07 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.55, which, despite a slight decline from the previous year, exceeded Wall Street expectations, demonstrating the company's resilience in challenging conditions.
- Weak Forward Guidance: The forecast for $8.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, only marginally above the $8.085 billion recorded in 2025, disappointed investors, reflecting concerns about future profitability amid competitive pressures.
- Natural Gas Price Volatility: Oneok anticipates pricing pressures due to lower hedged natural gas prices and supply competition, despite strong demand from AI data centers and LNG exports, indicating that price fluctuations pose a risk to the company's revenue stability.
- Dividend Stability: With a dividend yield of 4.8%, Oneok's dividend is expected to remain secure due to its fee-based model and strong market presence in Oklahoma, Texas, and the Midwest, although natural gas demand may be impacted by climate change factors.
See More
