Nexstar Reports Q4 Earnings with Mixed Results
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy NXST?
Source: seekingalpha
- Disappointing Earnings: Nexstar's Q4 EPS of -$5.63 significantly underperformed against the consensus estimate of $3.55, indicating substantial challenges in profitability that may undermine investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth quarter revenue of $1.29 billion fell 13.4% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced political advertising revenue, reflecting the negative impact of the election cycle on the company's financials and potentially leading to future revenue instability.
- Slight Distribution Revenue Growth: Despite the overall revenue decline, distribution revenue reached $720 million in Q4, up 0.8% year-over-year, primarily driven by rate increases and growth in vMVPD subscribers, demonstrating resilience in certain areas of the business.
- Future Outlook: Nexstar is guiding for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, although various factors could positively or negatively affect this outlook, indicating a cautiously optimistic stance towards future performance.
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Analyst Views on NXST
Wall Street analysts forecast NXST stock price to fall
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 251.020
Low
204.00
Averages
232.25
High
250.00
Current: 251.020
Low
204.00
Averages
232.25
High
250.00
About NXST
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. is a diversified media company with television broadcasting, television network and digital media assets operating in the United States. The Company produces and distributes engaging local and national news, sports and entertainment content across its television and digital platforms. The Company’s reportable broadcast segment includes television stations and related local websites that Nexstar owns, operates, programs or provides sales and other services to in various markets across the United States, NewsNation, a national cable news network, two owned and operated multicast networks and other multicast network services, and WGN-AM, a Chicago radio station. The other operating segments, The CW and digital businesses, focused on the national marketplace. The Company’s portfolio of digital assets, including its local TV station websites, The Hill and NewsNationNow.com. Its national television properties include The CW, NewsNation, Antenna TV, and Rewind TV.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Nexstar (NXST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Nexstar Reports Q4 Earnings with Mixed Results
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- Revenue Decline: The fourth quarter revenue of $1.29 billion fell 13.4% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced political advertising revenue, reflecting the negative impact of the election cycle on the company's financials and potentially leading to future revenue instability.
- Slight Distribution Revenue Growth: Despite the overall revenue decline, distribution revenue reached $720 million in Q4, up 0.8% year-over-year, primarily driven by rate increases and growth in vMVPD subscribers, demonstrating resilience in certain areas of the business.
- Future Outlook: Nexstar is guiding for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, although various factors could positively or negatively affect this outlook, indicating a cautiously optimistic stance towards future performance.
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- Stock Performance Decline: Since its January debut, Versant's stock has dropped approximately 25%, with a current market capitalization of around $4.8 billion, reflecting investor concerns regarding the traditional pay-TV business amid the rise of streaming alternatives.
- Revenue Structure Transition: CEO Mark Lazarus indicated that the company aims to transition its business model by 2026, targeting a future where 50% of revenue comes from digital and ad-supported ventures, highlighting a strategic focus on growth opportunities.
- Long-term Partnership Agreements: Versant's long-term agreements with major distributors will extend through 2028 and beyond, providing crucial stability for the company despite upcoming contract renewals, which are expected to be challenging.
See More
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- Strategic Execution Success: In 2025, Nexstar successfully reviewed and renewed over 60% of its distribution agreements, further elevating The CW and NewsNation's network status, with the TEGNA acquisition expected to close by Q2 2026, demonstrating the company's proactive progress in market consolidation.
- Strong Digital Revenue Growth: Digital revenue grew in the high single digits in 2025 and is projected to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026, marking a strategic milestone in the company's digital transformation and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Robust Financial Performance: Q4 net revenue was $1.29 billion, a 13.4% decline year-over-year primarily due to reduced political advertising, yet distribution revenue slightly increased to $720 million, reflecting the company's efforts to diversify its revenue streams.
- Optimistic Profit Outlook: Nexstar projects 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, with The CW expected to achieve profitability by Q4 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth and focus on cost control.
See More
Nexstar (NXST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
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- Disappointing Earnings: Nexstar's Q4 EPS of -$5.63 significantly underperformed against the consensus estimate of $3.55, indicating substantial challenges in profitability that may undermine investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth quarter revenue of $1.29 billion fell 13.4% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced political advertising revenue, reflecting the negative impact of the election cycle on the company's financials and potentially leading to future revenue instability.
- Slight Distribution Revenue Growth: Despite the overall revenue decline, distribution revenue reached $720 million in Q4, up 0.8% year-over-year, primarily driven by rate increases and growth in vMVPD subscribers, demonstrating resilience in certain areas of the business.
- Future Outlook: Nexstar is guiding for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, although various factors could positively or negatively affect this outlook, indicating a cautiously optimistic stance towards future performance.
See More
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- Asset Allocation Shift: This new position accounts for 1.37% of Penn Capital's 13F reportable assets under management, indicating a strategic focus on the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI and advanced chip manufacturing.
- Outstanding Stock Performance: As of February 6, 2026, ACM Research shares were priced at $62.48, up 171.5% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by 157.6 percentage points, showcasing market recognition of its growth potential.
- Industry Outlook Analysis: ACM Research specializes in providing advanced cleaning and plating equipment for semiconductor manufacturing, and with the surge in AI processor demand, the company’s revenue from the Chinese market is significant, facing dual challenges of self-sufficiency and export controls.
See More
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- Value Appreciation: As of December 31, 2025, the position's quarter-end value stood at $17.21 million, indicating a positive impact from both the share purchase and price movements, showcasing market recognition of ACM Research.
- Strong Market Performance: As of February 6, 2026, ACM Research shares were priced at $62.48, representing a 171.5% increase over the previous year, generating 157.6 percentage points of alpha compared to the S&P 500, highlighting its robust performance in the semiconductor equipment market.
- Promising Industry Outlook: ACM Research focuses on advanced wafer cleaning and plating equipment, and with the rising demand for AI processors, its products are becoming increasingly vital in semiconductor manufacturing, positioning the company for greater market share amidst China's push for semiconductor self-sufficiency.
See More
