Keefe Bruyette Analyst Says UWM Holdings Shares Down 15%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy UWMC?
Keefe Bruyette analyst Bose George says UWM Holdings (UWMC) hosted its Q4 conference call and management noted they will not field questions, "which was a surprise." The shares had already been weak on the Q1 guidance, and will likely selloff further weakness given the lack of questions on the call, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Keefe says the mid-point of UWM's revenue guidance suggests 2c downside. "But since there was no expense guidance, it's hard to quantify precisely," the firm adds. Shares of UWM Holdings are down 15%, or 67c, to $3.90 in morning trading. Two Harbors (TWO), which is being acquired by UWM, is down 14% to $9.20.
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Analyst Views on UWMC
Wall Street analysts forecast UWMC stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 4.410
Low
5.00
Averages
6.54
High
10.00
Current: 4.410
Low
5.00
Averages
6.54
High
10.00
About UWMC
UWM Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the origination, sale and servicing of residential mortgage loans throughout the United States. The Company originates primarily conforming and government loans across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It operates in a single segment and is engaged in the origination, sale and servicing of residential mortgage loans, exclusively in the wholesale channel. It is focused on originating conventional, agency-eligible loans that can be sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or transferred to Ginnie Mae pools for sale in the secondary market. Its conventional agency-conforming loans meet the general underwriting guidelines established by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Easiest Application System Ever is its primary LOS that allows clients to interact with the Company and to select products, lock rates and run the Automated Underwriting System. Blink+ is its client facing point of sale system white-labeled for its clients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
UWM Holdings CEO Sells 1.9 Million Shares Indirectly
- Indirect Share Sale: UWM Holdings CEO Mat Ishbia indirectly sold 1,898,622 Class A common shares between February 13 and 18, 2026, for approximately $9.28 million, indicating his ongoing engagement with the market.
- Transaction Scale Analysis: The sale's volume slightly exceeds the recent median sell trade size of 1,789,068 shares, reflecting Ishbia's active trading strategy amid market fluctuations, which may impact investor confidence.
- Financial Performance Review: UWM Holdings reported over $1 billion in revenue for Q4 FY 2025, a 300% year-over-year increase, marking its first billion-dollar quarter since Q1 2021, showcasing the company's recovery potential in adversity.
- Acquisition Progress: UWM is finalizing its acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp., expected to close in Q2 2026, which will expand its servicing portfolio and enhance efficiency in the real estate market, potentially laying the groundwork for future growth.
See More
Mortgage Rates Climb to Two-Week High Amid Economic Concerns
- Mortgage Rate Increase: The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rose by 13 basis points to 6.12%, marking a rebound from a recent low of 5.99% on February 23, which may deter potential homebuyers from entering the market.
- Market Sentiment Impact: As the spring housing market begins, high home prices and economic concerns have sidelined many potential buyers, and fluctuations in mortgage rates could exacerbate this trend, affecting overall market activity.
- Economic Data Influence: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose back above 4%, reflecting market sensitivity to economic data, particularly the upcoming monthly employment report, which could influence future rate movements.
- Limited Oil Price Impact: Although rising oil prices due to conflict with Iran have raised inflation concerns, experts indicate that oil prices are not the primary driver of rising mortgage rates, with market reactions being more of a technical adjustment.
See More
Mat Ishbia Sells Nearly 1.9 Million Shares
- Share Sale Overview: Mat Ishbia indirectly sold 1,898,622 Class A Common shares between February 13 and 18, 2026, for approximately $9.28 million at an average price of $4.89 per share, representing 21.89% of his total holdings prior to the sale.
- Holding Changes Analysis: Ishbia's indirect shares were at 9.85 million in December 2025 but fell below 2 million by February 12, 2026, before recovering due to the vesting of stock units, indicating a flexible holding strategy amidst market fluctuations.
- Performance Recovery Context: UWM Holdings reported over $1 billion in revenue for Q4 FY 2025 on February 25, 2026, marking a 300% year-over-year increase, which provides a positive outlook for stock price recovery despite underperformance in the previous two years.
- Acquisition Plan Impact: UWM is finalizing its acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp., expected to close in Q2 2026, which will expand its servicing portfolio and enhance efficiency in the real estate market, potentially driving future growth.
See More
UWM Holdings CEO Sells 1.26 Million Shares
- Transaction Overview: UWM Holdings CEO Mat Ishbia sold 1,265,748 shares on February 3 and 4, 2026, for a total value of $6.5 million, indicating ongoing adjustments to his equity stake in the company.
- Indirect Ownership Structure: All shares sold were from SFS Corp, fully controlled by Ishbia, and while no direct holdings were affected, the changes in indirect ownership may influence investor perceptions of corporate governance.
- Performance Rebound: UWM's Q4 FY 2025 earnings report, released on February 25, 2026, revealed revenues exceeding $1 billion for the first time since Q1 2021, marking a 300% year-over-year increase, which lays a foundation for potential stock price recovery.
- Acquisition Plans: UWM is finalizing its acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp, expected to close in Q2 2026, which will significantly expand its servicing portfolio and enhance efficiency in the real estate market.
See More
Mat Ishbia Sells 1.26 Million Shares of UWM Holdings
- Share Sale Details: Mat Ishbia sold 1,265,748 shares of UWM Holdings through indirect ownership on February 3 and 4, 2026, for approximately $6.5 million at a weighted average price of $5.13 per share, representing 17.74% of his total holdings at the time of the transaction.
- Holding Reduction Trend: Since December 2025, Ishbia has frequently sold indirect shares, starting with 9.85 million shares, and after this transaction, he has nearly halved his holdings, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future prospects.
- Performance Recovery: UWM Holdings reported over $1 billion in revenue for Q4 FY 2025 on February 25, 2026, marking a 300% year-over-year increase, which may provide potential support for a rebound in the company's stock price.
- Acquisition Plans: UWM is finalizing its acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp., expected to close in Q2 2026, which will expand its servicing portfolio and enhance efficiency in the real estate market, although long-term performance remains a concern.
See More
UWM Holdings Earnings Call Surprises Investors with No Q&A
- Management Change: UWM Holdings' decision to not field questions during its earnings call this quarter caught investors off guard, resulting in a more than 12% drop in share price on Wednesday, reflecting concerns over the company's transparency.
- Financial Performance: The company reported total revenue of $945.2 million in Q4, up from $843.3 million in Q3 and $720.6 million in Q4 of the previous year, exceeding analysts' expectations of $781.7 million, indicating solid performance in the market.
- Future Outlook: UWM anticipates total revenue for Q1 2026 to be between $650 million and $850 million, although the conservative guidance may further impact investor confidence, especially in light of the acquisition of Two Harbors.
- Market Reaction: Despite UWM's $50 billion in originations this quarter being viewed as solid, the stock has fallen 38% over the past 12 months, indicating ongoing market concerns regarding the company's future performance.
See More
UWM Holdings CEO Sells 1.9 Million Shares Indirectly
- Indirect Share Sale: UWM Holdings CEO Mat Ishbia indirectly sold 1,898,622 Class A common shares between February 13 and 18, 2026, for approximately $9.28 million, indicating his ongoing engagement with the market.
- Transaction Scale Analysis: The sale's volume slightly exceeds the recent median sell trade size of 1,789,068 shares, reflecting Ishbia's active trading strategy amid market fluctuations, which may impact investor confidence.
- Financial Performance Review: UWM Holdings reported over $1 billion in revenue for Q4 FY 2025, a 300% year-over-year increase, marking its first billion-dollar quarter since Q1 2021, showcasing the company's recovery potential in adversity.
- Acquisition Progress: UWM is finalizing its acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp., expected to close in Q2 2026, which will expand its servicing portfolio and enhance efficiency in the real estate market, potentially laying the groundwork for future growth.
See More
Mortgage Rates Climb to Two-Week High Amid Economic Concerns
- Mortgage Rate Increase: The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rose by 13 basis points to 6.12%, marking a rebound from a recent low of 5.99% on February 23, which may deter potential homebuyers from entering the market.
- Market Sentiment Impact: As the spring housing market begins, high home prices and economic concerns have sidelined many potential buyers, and fluctuations in mortgage rates could exacerbate this trend, affecting overall market activity.
- Economic Data Influence: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose back above 4%, reflecting market sensitivity to economic data, particularly the upcoming monthly employment report, which could influence future rate movements.
- Limited Oil Price Impact: Although rising oil prices due to conflict with Iran have raised inflation concerns, experts indicate that oil prices are not the primary driver of rising mortgage rates, with market reactions being more of a technical adjustment.
See More
Mat Ishbia Sells Nearly 1.9 Million Shares
- Share Sale Overview: Mat Ishbia indirectly sold 1,898,622 Class A Common shares between February 13 and 18, 2026, for approximately $9.28 million at an average price of $4.89 per share, representing 21.89% of his total holdings prior to the sale.
- Holding Changes Analysis: Ishbia's indirect shares were at 9.85 million in December 2025 but fell below 2 million by February 12, 2026, before recovering due to the vesting of stock units, indicating a flexible holding strategy amidst market fluctuations.
- Performance Recovery Context: UWM Holdings reported over $1 billion in revenue for Q4 FY 2025 on February 25, 2026, marking a 300% year-over-year increase, which provides a positive outlook for stock price recovery despite underperformance in the previous two years.
- Acquisition Plan Impact: UWM is finalizing its acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp., expected to close in Q2 2026, which will expand its servicing portfolio and enhance efficiency in the real estate market, potentially driving future growth.
See More
UWM Holdings CEO Sells 1.26 Million Shares
- Transaction Overview: UWM Holdings CEO Mat Ishbia sold 1,265,748 shares on February 3 and 4, 2026, for a total value of $6.5 million, indicating ongoing adjustments to his equity stake in the company.
- Indirect Ownership Structure: All shares sold were from SFS Corp, fully controlled by Ishbia, and while no direct holdings were affected, the changes in indirect ownership may influence investor perceptions of corporate governance.
- Performance Rebound: UWM's Q4 FY 2025 earnings report, released on February 25, 2026, revealed revenues exceeding $1 billion for the first time since Q1 2021, marking a 300% year-over-year increase, which lays a foundation for potential stock price recovery.
- Acquisition Plans: UWM is finalizing its acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp, expected to close in Q2 2026, which will significantly expand its servicing portfolio and enhance efficiency in the real estate market.
See More
Mat Ishbia Sells 1.26 Million Shares of UWM Holdings
- Share Sale Details: Mat Ishbia sold 1,265,748 shares of UWM Holdings through indirect ownership on February 3 and 4, 2026, for approximately $6.5 million at a weighted average price of $5.13 per share, representing 17.74% of his total holdings at the time of the transaction.
- Holding Reduction Trend: Since December 2025, Ishbia has frequently sold indirect shares, starting with 9.85 million shares, and after this transaction, he has nearly halved his holdings, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future prospects.
- Performance Recovery: UWM Holdings reported over $1 billion in revenue for Q4 FY 2025 on February 25, 2026, marking a 300% year-over-year increase, which may provide potential support for a rebound in the company's stock price.
- Acquisition Plans: UWM is finalizing its acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp., expected to close in Q2 2026, which will expand its servicing portfolio and enhance efficiency in the real estate market, although long-term performance remains a concern.
See More
UWM Holdings Earnings Call Surprises Investors with No Q&A
- Management Change: UWM Holdings' decision to not field questions during its earnings call this quarter caught investors off guard, resulting in a more than 12% drop in share price on Wednesday, reflecting concerns over the company's transparency.
- Financial Performance: The company reported total revenue of $945.2 million in Q4, up from $843.3 million in Q3 and $720.6 million in Q4 of the previous year, exceeding analysts' expectations of $781.7 million, indicating solid performance in the market.
- Future Outlook: UWM anticipates total revenue for Q1 2026 to be between $650 million and $850 million, although the conservative guidance may further impact investor confidence, especially in light of the acquisition of Two Harbors.
- Market Reaction: Despite UWM's $50 billion in originations this quarter being viewed as solid, the stock has fallen 38% over the past 12 months, indicating ongoing market concerns regarding the company's future performance.
See More
