JPM: HKEX (00388.HK) Reports Strong 4Q25 Net Profit; Year-to-Date Average Daily Turnover Recovers; IPO Activity Increases
Financial Performance: HKEX reported a net profit of $4.3 billion for Q4 2025, a 12% decrease QoQ but a 15% increase YoY, surpassing JPMorgan's forecast by 19%. The FY2025 profit reached $17.8 billion, up 36% YoY, exceeding market expectations by 2%.
Trading Activity: After a seasonal dip in December 2025, trading volumes have improved, with an average daily turnover of approximately $260 billion year-to-date, despite the impact of the Lunar New Year period.
IPO Applications: HKEX entered 2026 with over 400 active IPO applications, a notable rise from 297 in Q3 2025, indicating a robust pipeline for new listings.
Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating on HKEX, projecting a target price of $540, anticipating continued strength in the share price following the positive quarterly results.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 00388
About the author
HSI Drops 570 Points, While Oil and Gold Miners Rise; Airlines and Banks Weigh Down
Market Performance: The HSI fell by 2.1% to close at 26,059, with significant declines in the HSCEI and HSTECH, while total market turnover reached $357.679 billion.
Oil and Gold Stocks Rise: Oil prices increased, boosting stocks like PETROCHINA and CNOOC by over 4%, while gold prices also rose, positively impacting companies such as SD GOLD and ZHAOJIN MINING.
Airlines and Financials Decline: Airlines faced losses due to disruptions in Middle East routes, with CHINA SOUTH AIR and CHINA EAST AIR dropping over 8%, while major financial institutions like HSBC and BOC HONG KONG also saw declines.
Chinese Developers and Insurers Struggle: Chinese developers like SUNAC and CHINA VANKE experienced significant drops, while insurers and brokers also faced losses, reflecting broader market concerns.
M Stanley's Updated Focus List for Hong Kong and China Stocks (Table)
Morgan Stanley's Market Strategy: The report highlights new additions to the focus list for Hong Kong and Chinese markets, including GIGADEVICE and SINOPEC CORP, while removing SUNNY OPTICAL and ESPRESSIF.
Stock Performance: Notable stock movements include SINOPEC CORP and CHALCO showing gains, while GIGADEVICE and SUNNY OPTICAL experienced declines, with significant short selling activity reported across various stocks.
CICC: HKEX Performance Exceeds Expectations; Maintains Outperform Rating
HKEX Revenue and Profit Growth: CICC reported that HKEX's total revenue for 2025 is projected to reach HKD29.16 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year, with profits expected to grow 36% to HKD17.75 billion.
Quarterly Performance: In the fourth quarter, HKEX's revenue rose 15% year-on-year to HKD7.31 billion, with core fee income increasing by 17% to HKD6 billion and profits climbing 15% to HKD4.335 billion.
HSI Ends at 26,630, Gaining 249 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,137, Up 28 Points; SHK PPT Surges Over 7%; SHK PPT, CHINA SHENHUA, CK ASSET, BOC HONG KONG, TECHTRONIC IND Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 249 points (0.9%) to close at 26,630, with a total market turnover of $288.42 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Notable stock movements included TENCENT (+1.2%), MEITUAN (+0.9%), and HKEX (+0.9%), while XIAOMI (-0.8%) and BABA (-0.1%) saw declines.
Top Gainers: SHK PPT surged by 7.1% to a new high, followed by WUXI BIO (+5.1%) and CHINA SHENHUA (+4.0%), indicating strong performance among HSI and HSCEI constituents.
Significant Movements: Johnson Electric experienced a remarkable increase of 17.4%, while HAO TIAN INTL fell by 10.9%, highlighting volatility in smaller stocks.
HSBC Research Increases Earnings Projections for HKEX (00388.HK) for 2026/2027 and Raises Target Price to $520
Earnings Performance: HKEX reported 4Q25 EPS of $3.43, exceeding expectations, with total revenue up 14.6% YoY and operating expenses only increasing by 0.8%.
Forecast Adjustments: HSBC Global Research raised its earnings forecasts for HKEX for 2026 and 2027 by 3% and 1.8%, respectively, while lowering average daily turnover projections for Hong Kong equities.
Dividend Increase: HKEX's net profit for 2025 rose 36% YoY to $17.75 billion, leading to a raised second interim dividend per share to $6.52.
Target Price Update: HSBC increased its target price for HKEX from $510 to $520, maintaining a "Buy" rating on the stock.
BofAS: HKEX (00388.HK) 2025 Net Profit Expected to Align Closely
Financial Performance: HKEX reported a net profit of HKD17.8 billion for FY25, a 36% year-on-year increase, with an average daily turnover (ADT) reaching a historical high of HKD250 billion, up 89% YoY.
IPO Fundraising and Future Outlook: The exchange's IPO fundraising surged to HKD287 billion, a 225% increase YoY, leading to revised earnings expectations for 2026-27, with a maintained target price of HKD520 and a Buy rating.
HSI Drops 570 Points, While Oil and Gold Miners Rise; Airlines and Banks Weigh Down
Market Performance: The HSI fell by 2.1% to close at 26,059, with significant declines in the HSCEI and HSTECH, while total market turnover reached $357.679 billion.
Oil and Gold Stocks Rise: Oil prices increased, boosting stocks like PETROCHINA and CNOOC by over 4%, while gold prices also rose, positively impacting companies such as SD GOLD and ZHAOJIN MINING.
Airlines and Financials Decline: Airlines faced losses due to disruptions in Middle East routes, with CHINA SOUTH AIR and CHINA EAST AIR dropping over 8%, while major financial institutions like HSBC and BOC HONG KONG also saw declines.
Chinese Developers and Insurers Struggle: Chinese developers like SUNAC and CHINA VANKE experienced significant drops, while insurers and brokers also faced losses, reflecting broader market concerns.
M Stanley's Updated Focus List for Hong Kong and China Stocks (Table)
Morgan Stanley's Market Strategy: The report highlights new additions to the focus list for Hong Kong and Chinese markets, including GIGADEVICE and SINOPEC CORP, while removing SUNNY OPTICAL and ESPRESSIF.
Stock Performance: Notable stock movements include SINOPEC CORP and CHALCO showing gains, while GIGADEVICE and SUNNY OPTICAL experienced declines, with significant short selling activity reported across various stocks.
CICC: HKEX Performance Exceeds Expectations; Maintains Outperform Rating
HKEX Revenue and Profit Growth: CICC reported that HKEX's total revenue for 2025 is projected to reach HKD29.16 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year, with profits expected to grow 36% to HKD17.75 billion.
Quarterly Performance: In the fourth quarter, HKEX's revenue rose 15% year-on-year to HKD7.31 billion, with core fee income increasing by 17% to HKD6 billion and profits climbing 15% to HKD4.335 billion.
HSI Ends at 26,630, Gaining 249 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,137, Up 28 Points; SHK PPT Surges Over 7%; SHK PPT, CHINA SHENHUA, CK ASSET, BOC HONG KONG, TECHTRONIC IND Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 249 points (0.9%) to close at 26,630, with a total market turnover of $288.42 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Notable stock movements included TENCENT (+1.2%), MEITUAN (+0.9%), and HKEX (+0.9%), while XIAOMI (-0.8%) and BABA (-0.1%) saw declines.
Top Gainers: SHK PPT surged by 7.1% to a new high, followed by WUXI BIO (+5.1%) and CHINA SHENHUA (+4.0%), indicating strong performance among HSI and HSCEI constituents.
Significant Movements: Johnson Electric experienced a remarkable increase of 17.4%, while HAO TIAN INTL fell by 10.9%, highlighting volatility in smaller stocks.
HSBC Research Increases Earnings Projections for HKEX (00388.HK) for 2026/2027 and Raises Target Price to $520
Earnings Performance: HKEX reported 4Q25 EPS of $3.43, exceeding expectations, with total revenue up 14.6% YoY and operating expenses only increasing by 0.8%.
Forecast Adjustments: HSBC Global Research raised its earnings forecasts for HKEX for 2026 and 2027 by 3% and 1.8%, respectively, while lowering average daily turnover projections for Hong Kong equities.
Dividend Increase: HKEX's net profit for 2025 rose 36% YoY to $17.75 billion, leading to a raised second interim dividend per share to $6.52.
Target Price Update: HSBC increased its target price for HKEX from $510 to $520, maintaining a "Buy" rating on the stock.
BofAS: HKEX (00388.HK) 2025 Net Profit Expected to Align Closely
Financial Performance: HKEX reported a net profit of HKD17.8 billion for FY25, a 36% year-on-year increase, with an average daily turnover (ADT) reaching a historical high of HKD250 billion, up 89% YoY.
IPO Fundraising and Future Outlook: The exchange's IPO fundraising surged to HKD287 billion, a 225% increase YoY, leading to revised earnings expectations for 2026-27, with a maintained target price of HKD520 and a Buy rating.
