HSI Drops 47 Points at Midday, While SMIC and HUA HONG SEMI Rise; HKBN Surges 54%
Market Performance: The HSI fell by 0.2% to 26,860, while the HSCEI decreased by 0.1% to 9,586; however, the HSTECH rose by 1% to 6,400, with total half-day turnover reaching $204.714 billion.
Chip Stocks Surge: Huawei's upcoming Ascend 950PR chip is set for launch in 1Q26, contributing to significant gains in chip stocks, including SMIC and HUA HONG SEMI, which rose by 6.6% and 10.2%, respectively.
Notable Stock Movements: BIDU-SW, involved in AI chip development, increased by 4.1%, while GDS-SW, a cloud service provider, saw a 4.2% rise; in contrast, coal stocks like CHINA COAL and YANKUANG ENERGY dropped over 3%.
Remarkable Gains: HKBN experienced a dramatic increase of over 54% to close at $7.91, with a turnover of $1.64 billion, amidst notable short selling activity across various stocks.
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4Q25 Revenue Growth: ASMPT's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 18% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing both management guidance and market expectations.
Net Profit Performance: The company reported a net profit of $957 million, significantly exceeding Goldman Sachs' forecast of $360 million and the market consensus of $172 million, largely due to gains from the sale of its subsidiary, AAMI.
Gross Margin Analysis: The gross margin was reported at 36.5%, which was below Goldman Sachs' prediction of 38.8% but above the market consensus of 35.7%.
Analyst Ratings: Goldman Sachs rated ASMPT as Neutral with a target price of $90.7, while Citi reiterated a Buy rating with a target price of $125 following the strong results.

Company Performance: ASMPT reported a 31% year-over-year revenue increase in 4Q25, reaching $4.254 billion, surpassing guidance, with growth in both SEMI and SMT sectors.
Financial Outlook: Despite a slight decline in gross margin to 36.5%, Citi Research believes traditional businesses have bottomed out and are on a recovery path, maintaining a Buy rating with a target price of $125.

Financial Performance: ASMPT's net profit for 2025 increased by 1.6 times year-on-year to HKD 902 million, with a total dividend declared of HKD 1.13, up from HKD 0.32 in the previous year.
Stock Market Activity: The company's share price opened flat but rose to a peak of HKD 108.8, closing at HKD 108 with a trading volume of 227,600 shares, amounting to HKD 24.2855 million.

- Company Performance: ASMPT reported a 10% year-over-year increase in full-year revenue, reaching HKD13.736 billion for the year ended December 2025.
- Profit Growth: The company's net profit experienced significant growth, surging 1.6 times year-over-year to HKD902 million, with earnings per share (EPS) at HKD2.17.
- Short Selling Activity: The short selling for ASMPT amounted to $24.16 million, with a short selling ratio of 7.357%.
- Stock Movement: The stock price of ASMPT increased by 0.290%, closing at +0.300.

Business Strategy Shift: ASMPT is considering divesting its Surface Mount Technology (SMT) solutions business to focus on end-market businesses and areas of strength, with acquisition interest already received.
Financial Performance: The company's gross margin fell to 35.8% YoY, but is expected to improve in 1Q26 due to increased sales of TCB and high-end die bonding machines, while SMT solutions will likely maintain a similar gross margin due to weak automotive and industrial markets.

ASMPT's TCB TAM Forecast: ASMPT's management has increased its Total Addressable Market (TAM) forecast for TCB to US$1.6 billion by 2028, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from US$759 million in 2025, surpassing the previous estimate of US$1 billion by 2027.
Impact of AI Investments: The revised TAM reflects a significant increase in investments in AI logic and high bandwidth memory (HBM), driving growth in the semiconductor industry.
Earnings Forecast Adjustments: Macquarie has raised its earnings forecasts for ASMPT for 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 6%, 6%, and 3% respectively, due to strong revenue growth in the SEMI business, although this is partially offset by a downturn in the SMT business.
Broker Rating and Target Price: Macquarie has rated ASMPT as Outperform and increased its target price by 5% to $140, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects.



