Goldman Sachs updates conviction lists: Adds Johnson & Johnson and Axis Bank By Investing.com
Goldman Sachs Conviction List Update: Goldman Sachs has updated its Conviction Lists for the U.S. and Asia-Pacific, adding Johnson & Johnson and Houlihan Lokey in the U.S., while Axis Bank, Horizon Robotics, and NextDC were added in APAC, reflecting their growth potential and resilience.
Company Insights: Johnson & Johnson is noted for its strong balance sheet and promising drug pipeline, while Houlihan Lokey benefits from economic downturn protection; Axis Bank is expected to improve profitability, and Horizon Robotics and NextDC are recognized for their significant revenue growth forecasts.
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- Position Change: Dendur Capital LP reported in an SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, that it sold its entire position of 891,000 shares in Meritage Homes, with an estimated transaction value of $64.54 million, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future prospects as reflected in the net position decrease for the quarter.
- Asset Allocation Shift: This transaction reduced Meritage Homes' representation in Dendur Capital's assets from 6.7% to 0%, suggesting a complete exit from the stock, which may impact market confidence in the company moving forward.
- Market Environment Impact: High mortgage rates have made it increasingly difficult for entry-level buyers to afford homes, affecting Meritage Homes' primary market; however, the company continues to see housing demand in the fast-growing Sunbelt regions, indicating potential challenges for future growth.
- Management Strategy: Meritage has utilized incentives such as rate buydowns and closing cost support to sustain buyer interest, and despite rising borrowing costs, management has remained disciplined in land spending and community expansion, reflecting confidence in future demand amidst a challenging market environment.
- Shareholder Change: Dendur Capital LP disclosed in an SEC filing dated February 17, 2026, that it sold its entire position of 891,000 shares in Meritage Homes for an estimated transaction value of $64.54 million, resulting in a 6.4% decrease in its 13F reportable assets under management.
- Asset Management Impact: Following this transaction, Dendur Capital's stake in Meritage dropped from 6.7% to 0%, indicating a significant loss of confidence in the company, which may affect its future investment strategies.
- Market Environment: Meritage Homes primarily targets first-time and move-up buyers, and despite a 12.4% increase in stock price over the past year, high mortgage rates continue to pressure its market, impacting sales potential.
- Future Outlook: The management remains disciplined in land spending and community expansion to protect returns; however, if incentives continue to rise, profits may shrink, prompting investors to monitor the sustainability of future demand.
- Dividend Increase: Meritage Homes has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, representing a 12% year-over-year increase from $0.43 in 2025, reflecting the company's ongoing profitability and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is payable on March 31, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 17, 2026, ensuring timely returns for investors and enhancing confidence in the company's financial health.
- Market Position: As the fifth-largest homebuilder in the U.S., Meritage delivered over 210,000 homes in 2025, showcasing its leadership in energy-efficient and affordable housing, thereby solidifying its market share.
- Industry Recognition: Meritage has received multiple awards from the EPA for its quality construction and customer experience, including the ENERGY STAR Partner of the Year for Sustained Excellence, highlighting its significant impact in sustainable building practices.
- Housing Shortage Reality: According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S. faces a shortage of 3 to 4 million homes, significantly exceeding the normal annual construction of 1.5 million, leading to fierce competition among buyers and rising prices, thus providing sustained market opportunities for major homebuilders.
- Growth Potential of LGI Homes: LGI Homes is projected to achieve an 11% sales growth this year and 6% next year, reaching $2 billion in sales by 2027, showcasing its ability to stand out in a competitive market, particularly among first-time homebuyers.
- Market Leadership of D.R. Horton: As the largest homebuilder in the U.S., D.R. Horton reported $34.3 billion in sales last year, with expectations to grow sales to nearly $40 billion in the coming years, and its reasonable 10x P/E ratio offers a compelling value proposition for investors.
- Income Model of Invitation Homes: Invitation Homes owns and manages over 100,000 homes, with projected sales growth of only 3%, but its 4.34% dividend yield significantly surpasses the market average, attracting more income-focused investors.
Company Overview: Meritage Homes Corp is a homebuilding company that focuses on residential construction.
Stock Price Adjustment: The company has cut its target price from $101 to $95, indicating a reassessment of its market value.
- Delivery Performance: Meritage Homes delivered 3,755 homes in Q4 2025, generating $1.4 billion in revenue, despite a 7% decline in delivery volume compared to the previous year, highlighting ongoing market demand challenges.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: The company strategically terminated certain land deals to redeploy capital, planning to buy back $400 million in shares in 2026, aiming to enhance long-term portfolio value creation.
- Financial Metrics: The adjusted gross margin for the fourth quarter was 19.3%, down from 23.3% a year ago, primarily impacted by $27.9 million in land deal termination charges and other nonrecurring expenses, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Future Outlook: The company expects 2026 closings to align with 2025 performance, with community count growth projected at 5% to 10%, while management remains optimistic about potential improvements in the spring selling season despite ongoing affordability challenges and market uncertainties.








