Exxon beats Q4 estimates with higher Permian, Guyana output By Reuters
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 31 2025
0mins
Source: Investing.com
Exxon's Fourth-Quarter Performance: Exxon Mobil reported a fourth-quarter profit of $7.39 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, driven by increased oil and gas production despite lower oil prices and refining margins. The company became the largest oil producer in the Permian basin after acquiring Pioneer Natural Resources.
Challenges in Refining and Future Outlook: Earnings from gasoline and diesel production significantly dropped due to increased global fuel supply, while Exxon's shareholder returns rose to $36 billion in 2024. The company anticipates ongoing pressure in its refining business and is awaiting a decision on its arbitration challenge regarding Chevron's acquisition of Hess.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 186.760
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 186.760
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- High Call Option Activity: Within Chevron, the $197.50 strike call option expiring on March 20, 2026, has seen 4,888 contracts traded today, representing about 488,800 underlying shares, suggesting an increased bullish sentiment among investors regarding the stock's upward potential.
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See More
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- Market Leadership: Chevron's deep legacy presence and joint ventures with PDVSA provide it with the 'clearest line of sight' in the oil recovery trade, enabling effective monetization of new investments and capacity recovery.
- Strong Export Capacity: Chevron is currently exporting nearly 300,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude to the U.S. daily, making it the largest corporate channel for these flows, demonstrating its deep integration into the export infrastructure and ability to scale alongside production recovery.
- Price Advantage: Chevron's profitability is not solely reliant on higher crude volumes but also benefits from the 'volumes + discount' combination, which is crucial if Venezuelan supply caps upside potential for oil prices.
- Flexible Trading Strategy: Even if oil price upside is moderated, Chevron's joint venture throughput and trading flexibility still provide earnings leverage, ensuring its competitiveness amid market fluctuations.
See More
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- Supply Disruption Risk: The U.S.-Iran war has led to a near-total halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for about one-third of global seaborne oil exports in 2025, posing a significant risk of slowing the global economy.
- Price Surge: Crude oil prices rose over 5% on Monday, with European natural gas futures soaring more than 40%, and if the conflict persists, Brent prices could exceed $120 per barrel, leading to higher fuel costs for consumers.
- Production Capacity Threat: Should the war last more than three weeks, Gulf countries' storage capacity may be exhausted, potentially forcing production halts and putting Iran's output of over 3 million barrels per day at risk, further tightening market conditions.
- Geopolitical Impact: The tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program and missile development could lead to oil prices spiking over 70% during regime changes, while U.S. and Israeli military actions have rendered negotiations impossible, increasing market uncertainty.
See More
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- Oil Price Impact: Following a joint U.S.-Israel strike, West Texas Intermediate futures surged over 5% and Brent crude rose about 6%, which could amplify inflationary pressures and challenge Trump's case for lower interest rates.
- Inflationary Pressures: January's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% above expectations, pushing the 12-month rate to 3.6%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, indicating persistent underlying price pressures.
- Economic Impact of War: Economists note that wars typically lead to negative supply shocks; despite increased U.S. energy independence, rising oil prices could still negatively impact economic growth, with estimates suggesting a $10 oil price increase could raise inflation by 0.2 percentage points.
- Stagflation Risks: With signs of labor market softening and uncertain fiscal policies, economists warn of potential stagflation risks, especially if Middle East tensions persist, which could exacerbate the dual pressures of rising prices and slowing growth.
See More
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- Retail Inflows: On Monday, retail investors net bought over $14 million in the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) following U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran, marking a more than 425% increase compared to Friday's trading volume, indicating strong interest in energy stocks.
- Defense Stock Surge: During the same hour, Palantir saw net inflows exceeding $800,000, a dramatic shift from the net selling of over $500,000 observed on Friday, leading to a more than 6% rise in its stock during midday trading, reflecting a reassessment of the defense sector.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: While retail investors showed activity in specific stocks, the broader market did not experience widespread panic, with analysts noting that investors are engaging in selective repositioning, indicating a more defensive strategy amid rising uncertainty.
- Hedging Strategies Evident: There was a notable increase in demand for the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ), suggesting that retail investors are not only reallocating their portfolios but are also actively hedging against potential market volatility.
See More
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- Oil Price Surge: The escalation of the Middle East conflict has led West Texas Intermediate futures to rise over 5% and Brent crude by about 6%, indicating heightened market concerns over supply disruptions that could exacerbate overall inflationary pressures.
- Inflationary Pressures: January's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% above expectations, with a 12-month rate of 3.6%, suggesting that while inflation has eased, underlying price pressures remain, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
- Uncertain Economic Impact: Economists note that the long-term effects of rising oil prices are unclear, especially given the U.S.'s increased energy self-sufficiency, leading to expectations that the near-term economic growth and inflation downside risks are limited.
- Stagflation Risks Reemerge: With signs of labor market softening and uncertain policy outlooks, economists warn of potential stagflation risks, particularly if Middle East tensions persist, which could pressure economic recovery.
See More
