Eli Lilly Reports ACHIEVE-3 Results, Orforglipron Outperforms Oral Semaglutide
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy LLY?
Eli Lilly announced results from ACHIEVE-3, the first head-to-head Phase 3 trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of orforglipron, a small molecule oral GLP-1 without food or water restrictions, compared with oral semaglutide in adults with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with metformin. The 52-week trial enrolled 1,698 participants across four treatment arms: orforglipron 12 mg and 36 mg, and oral semaglutide 7 mg and 14 mg. In ACHIEVE-3, orforglipron outperformed oral semaglutide across the primary and all key secondary endpoints, delivering significantly greater improvements in A1C and weight. The results were published today in The Lancet. Orforglipron also showed clinically meaningful improvements from baseline across key cardiovascular risk factors, including non-HDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, VLDL cholesterol, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and triglycerides. The overall safety and tolerability profile of orforglipron in ACHIEVE-3 was consistent with previous trials. For orforglipron and oral semaglutide, the most common adverse events were nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, dyspepsia and decreased appetite. Treatment discontinuation rates due to adverse events were 8.7% and 9.7% for orforglipron vs. 4.5% and 4.9% for oral semaglutide. Lilly has submitted orforglipron to regulators in over 40 countries, with submission for type 2 diabetes in the U.S. planned later this year.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1007.730
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1007.730
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. Its cardiometabolic health products include Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound; VERVE-102; VERVE-201, and VERVE-301. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, and Verzenio. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. The Company is also engaged in radiopharmaceutical discovery, development, and manufacturing efforts, and clinical and pre-clinical radioligand therapies in development for the treatment of cancer. It is also developing an oral small molecule inhibitor of a4b7 integrin for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). It is evaluating its novel gene therapy candidate, ixoberogene soroparvovec.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly Approaches $1 Trillion Valuation
- Price Target Analysis: Analysts currently project Eli Lilly's price target to be just under $1,230, indicating approximately 17% upside from its current price of $1,031.79, which presents a potential return opportunity for investors.
- Growth Drivers: The strong growth of Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, has fueled bullish sentiment, as investors grow confident in the company's potential to dominate the anti-obesity drug market, thereby continuing to drive the stock's rally.
- Valuation Considerations: Despite Eli Lilly's market cap nearing $1 trillion, its price-to-earnings ratio stands at 46, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 25, suggesting that much of the future growth is already priced in, which could lead to correction risks if expectations are not met.
- Long-term Investment Advice: For long-term investors, Eli Lilly remains a solid investment option, but it is crucial to temper expectations to avoid overestimating future gains, especially given the current high valuation context.
See More
Investment Potential of Eli Lilly and Veeva Systems
- Eli Lilly's Growth Momentum: Eli Lilly has demonstrated revenue growth rates exceeding mid-double digits in recent quarters, significantly outperforming large pharmaceutical companies, showcasing its leadership in the anti-obesity drug market, with new drug launches expected to further solidify its market share.
- Leader in Anti-Obesity Market: Eli Lilly's tirzepatide became the world's best-selling drug last year, with the anticipated launch of the oral GLP-1 drug forglipron this year and additional approvals expected in the coming years, enhancing the diversity of its product pipeline.
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- Growth Potential in Cloud Market: Veeva Systems estimates an addressable market of $20 billion, significantly higher than its trailing 12-month revenue of $3.1 billion, indicating substantial growth opportunities ahead, prompting investors to consider buying at current low levels.
See More
Eli Lilly and Veeva Systems' Growth Potential
- Strong Growth for Eli Lilly: Eli Lilly has achieved mid-double-digit revenue growth rates in recent quarters, significantly exceeding the pharmaceutical industry average, demonstrating its robust competitive position and future growth potential.
- Leader in Anti-Obesity Market: Eli Lilly's tirzepatide became the world's best-selling drug last year, and the anticipated launch of the oral GLP-1 drug forglipron this year will further solidify its leadership in the rapidly growing anti-obesity market.
- Market Opportunities for Veeva Systems: Veeva Systems provides cloud solutions to life science companies, boasting over 1,500 customers, and aims to double its annual revenue by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate of nearly 18%, showcasing its strong competitive edge in the large cloud market.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Despite intensified competition, Veeva Systems' high switching costs and unique market positioning provide ample growth opportunities, with an addressable market estimated at $20 billion, significantly surpassing its current revenue of $3.1 billion.
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Chronic Kidney Disease Market Growth Drivers
- Market Size Growth: According to analysis, the chronic kidney disease (CKD) market size was approximately $4.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow further by 2034, reflecting increased demand for new therapies and an expanding patient base.
- Rising Patient Numbers: In 2024, there were about 82 million prevalent cases of CKD across the 7 major markets (7MM), with projections indicating continued growth from 2025 to 2034, primarily driven by an aging population and the rising prevalence of diabetes and hypertension.
- Launch of New Therapies: The introduction of emerging therapies such as AstraZeneca's Zibotentan/Dapagliflozin and Boehringer Ingelheim's Vicadrostat + Empagliflozin is expected to significantly boost market growth and improve treatment outcomes for patients.
- Advancements in Biomarkers: Progress in biomarkers like KIM-1 and NGAL enables more precise early detection of CKD, thereby enhancing the potential for timely interventions and improving overall patient prognosis.
See More
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- Sales Growth Dependency: Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs achieved impressive sales growth of 99% and 175% in 2025, respectively, yet these two drugs account for nearly 45% of the company's total sales, raising concerns about the sustainability of such growth.
- Overvaluation Concerns: Despite the strong performance of Eli Lilly's drugs, its stock price has surged to a price-to-earnings ratio of 44, with a meager dividend yield of 0.6%, indicating that the market's expectations for future growth may be overly optimistic.
- Competitors' Opportunities: GLP-1 competitors Novo Nordisk and Pfizer offer more attractive investment profiles with dividend yields of 4.57% and 6.31%, respectively, and price-to-earnings ratios of 10 and 20, especially as Eli Lilly faces risks from patent expirations.
- Intensifying Industry Competition: While Eli Lilly's success in the GLP-1 space is notable, it may overshadow the risks it faces; as competition intensifies, the strong historical performance of Novo Nordisk and Pfizer could enable them to rebound in the market, presenting new opportunities for investors.
See More
Eli Lilly's GLP-1 Drug Sales Surge
- Significant Sales Growth: Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs achieved sales increases of 99% and 175% respectively in 2025; however, such growth may not be sustainable, introducing uncertainty into the company's future performance.
- Market Share Risk: These two GLP-1 drugs account for 56% of Eli Lilly's total revenue, and with patent protections set to expire, the company may face a substantial revenue gap that could impact its long-term financial health.
- Competitor Dynamics: While Novo Nordisk and Pfizer lag in the GLP-1 market, Novo Nordisk recently launched an oral GLP-1 medication, and its dividend yield stands at 4.9%, indicating its ongoing competitiveness in the market.
- Investor Sentiment Analysis: Despite Eli Lilly's stock price surging due to market enthusiasm, resulting in a high P/E ratio of 44 and a meager dividend yield of 0.6%, analysts suggest that investors consider competitors like Novo Nordisk and Pfizer for potentially better returns.
See More
Eli Lilly Approaches $1 Trillion Valuation
- Price Target Analysis: Analysts currently project Eli Lilly's price target to be just under $1,230, indicating approximately 17% upside from its current price of $1,031.79, which presents a potential return opportunity for investors.
- Growth Drivers: The strong growth of Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, has fueled bullish sentiment, as investors grow confident in the company's potential to dominate the anti-obesity drug market, thereby continuing to drive the stock's rally.
- Valuation Considerations: Despite Eli Lilly's market cap nearing $1 trillion, its price-to-earnings ratio stands at 46, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 25, suggesting that much of the future growth is already priced in, which could lead to correction risks if expectations are not met.
- Long-term Investment Advice: For long-term investors, Eli Lilly remains a solid investment option, but it is crucial to temper expectations to avoid overestimating future gains, especially given the current high valuation context.
See More
Investment Potential of Eli Lilly and Veeva Systems
- Eli Lilly's Growth Momentum: Eli Lilly has demonstrated revenue growth rates exceeding mid-double digits in recent quarters, significantly outperforming large pharmaceutical companies, showcasing its leadership in the anti-obesity drug market, with new drug launches expected to further solidify its market share.
- Leader in Anti-Obesity Market: Eli Lilly's tirzepatide became the world's best-selling drug last year, with the anticipated launch of the oral GLP-1 drug forglipron this year and additional approvals expected in the coming years, enhancing the diversity of its product pipeline.
- Veeva Systems' Market Opportunity: Veeva Systems provides cloud solutions to life science companies, boasting over 1,500 customers, with a goal to double its annual revenue by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate of nearly 18%, reflecting its strong competitive position in a rapidly growing market.
- Growth Potential in Cloud Market: Veeva Systems estimates an addressable market of $20 billion, significantly higher than its trailing 12-month revenue of $3.1 billion, indicating substantial growth opportunities ahead, prompting investors to consider buying at current low levels.
See More
Eli Lilly and Veeva Systems' Growth Potential
- Strong Growth for Eli Lilly: Eli Lilly has achieved mid-double-digit revenue growth rates in recent quarters, significantly exceeding the pharmaceutical industry average, demonstrating its robust competitive position and future growth potential.
- Leader in Anti-Obesity Market: Eli Lilly's tirzepatide became the world's best-selling drug last year, and the anticipated launch of the oral GLP-1 drug forglipron this year will further solidify its leadership in the rapidly growing anti-obesity market.
- Market Opportunities for Veeva Systems: Veeva Systems provides cloud solutions to life science companies, boasting over 1,500 customers, and aims to double its annual revenue by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate of nearly 18%, showcasing its strong competitive edge in the large cloud market.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Despite intensified competition, Veeva Systems' high switching costs and unique market positioning provide ample growth opportunities, with an addressable market estimated at $20 billion, significantly surpassing its current revenue of $3.1 billion.
See More
Chronic Kidney Disease Market Growth Drivers
- Market Size Growth: According to analysis, the chronic kidney disease (CKD) market size was approximately $4.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow further by 2034, reflecting increased demand for new therapies and an expanding patient base.
- Rising Patient Numbers: In 2024, there were about 82 million prevalent cases of CKD across the 7 major markets (7MM), with projections indicating continued growth from 2025 to 2034, primarily driven by an aging population and the rising prevalence of diabetes and hypertension.
- Launch of New Therapies: The introduction of emerging therapies such as AstraZeneca's Zibotentan/Dapagliflozin and Boehringer Ingelheim's Vicadrostat + Empagliflozin is expected to significantly boost market growth and improve treatment outcomes for patients.
- Advancements in Biomarkers: Progress in biomarkers like KIM-1 and NGAL enables more precise early detection of CKD, thereby enhancing the potential for timely interventions and improving overall patient prognosis.
See More
Eli Lilly Faces Challenges Amid GLP-1 Drug Success
- Sales Growth Dependency: Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs achieved impressive sales growth of 99% and 175% in 2025, respectively, yet these two drugs account for nearly 45% of the company's total sales, raising concerns about the sustainability of such growth.
- Overvaluation Concerns: Despite the strong performance of Eli Lilly's drugs, its stock price has surged to a price-to-earnings ratio of 44, with a meager dividend yield of 0.6%, indicating that the market's expectations for future growth may be overly optimistic.
- Competitors' Opportunities: GLP-1 competitors Novo Nordisk and Pfizer offer more attractive investment profiles with dividend yields of 4.57% and 6.31%, respectively, and price-to-earnings ratios of 10 and 20, especially as Eli Lilly faces risks from patent expirations.
- Intensifying Industry Competition: While Eli Lilly's success in the GLP-1 space is notable, it may overshadow the risks it faces; as competition intensifies, the strong historical performance of Novo Nordisk and Pfizer could enable them to rebound in the market, presenting new opportunities for investors.
See More
Eli Lilly's GLP-1 Drug Sales Surge
- Significant Sales Growth: Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs achieved sales increases of 99% and 175% respectively in 2025; however, such growth may not be sustainable, introducing uncertainty into the company's future performance.
- Market Share Risk: These two GLP-1 drugs account for 56% of Eli Lilly's total revenue, and with patent protections set to expire, the company may face a substantial revenue gap that could impact its long-term financial health.
- Competitor Dynamics: While Novo Nordisk and Pfizer lag in the GLP-1 market, Novo Nordisk recently launched an oral GLP-1 medication, and its dividend yield stands at 4.9%, indicating its ongoing competitiveness in the market.
- Investor Sentiment Analysis: Despite Eli Lilly's stock price surging due to market enthusiasm, resulting in a high P/E ratio of 44 and a meager dividend yield of 0.6%, analysts suggest that investors consider competitors like Novo Nordisk and Pfizer for potentially better returns.
See More
