Copper Futures Drop to $13,033, Goldman Sachs Predicts $11,000 by Year-End 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 15 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Price Decline: Copper futures fell to $13,033 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, down 2% from all-time highs, reflecting market concerns over future demand.
- Future Forecast: Goldman Sachs analysts predict copper prices will drop to $11,000 per ton by year-end 2026, primarily due to rising global inventories and underperforming demand, indicating a deterioration in market fundamentals.
- Weak Demand: China's copper demand growth fell short of expectations in Q4 2025, with weakening electric vehicle sales posing further downside risks, prompting manufacturers to consider switching from copper to aluminum.
- Policy Impact: The Trump administration's decision to delay tariffs on critical mineral imports may lead to lower premiums for U.S. copper, although prices are expected to remain around $13,000 in Q1 due to uncertainty surrounding refined copper tariffs.
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Analyst Views on BHP
Wall Street analysts forecast BHP stock price to fall
3 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 83.010
Low
49.50
Averages
56.50
High
68.00
Current: 83.010
Low
49.50
Averages
56.50
High
68.00
About BHP
BHP Group Limited is an Australia-based resources company. The Company is a producer of commodities, including iron ore, copper, nickel, potash and metallurgical (steelmaking) coal. It is focused on offering a range of resources, which provides copper for renewable energy; nickel for electric vehicles; potash for sustainable farming, and iron ore and metallurgical coal for the steel needed for global infrastructure and the energy transition. Its segments include Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal. Its Copper segment is engaged in mining of copper, silver, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, and gold. Its Iron Ore segment is engaged in mining of iron ore. Its Coal segment is engaged in mining of metallurgical coal and energy coal. The Company is also focused on operating Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill, and Carrapateena underground copper-gold mines in South Australia. Its operations are situated in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Copper Production Growth: The company has raised its copper production guidance by 150,000 tons over the next two years, targeting around 2.5 million tons of copper equivalent output annually by 2035, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 3-4% between fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2035.
- South American Project Advancement: The Vicuña joint venture with Lundin has increased the district's copper resource to 47 million tons through recent drilling, with a final investment decision on Stage 1 expected by year-end, potentially yielding an average annual output of 500,000 tons of copper and 800,000 ounces of gold over the first decade.
- Capital Return Commitment: BHP commits to a minimum 50% payout ratio for dividends, having returned over $110 billion to shareholders in the past decade, demonstrating its dedication to creating value for shareholders while maintaining capital discipline.
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- Increased Cost Pressures: BHP's decision to shutter one of its Queensland coal mines in September further illustrates the company's response to escalating cost pressures, signaling a strategic shift in its approach to the coal market.
- Uncertain Future: Despite strong revenue performance in the past, the lack of profitability and investment returns raises uncertainties about future investment and operational strategies, potentially affecting the company's overall financial health.
See More
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- Demand Slowdown: China's copper demand has softened, and smelter activity has slowed; nevertheless, copper is increasingly recognized as a foundational material for 21st-century infrastructure, particularly in electric vehicles and renewable energy applications.
- Strategic Investment: Capital expenditures to maintain current copper production are projected to reach $250 billion over the next decade, shifting market focus to emerging markets, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) becoming increasingly significant in global copper production.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite geological challenges, investors remain bullish on copper, anticipating sustained demand growth in electric vehicles, solar energy, and data centers, which will drive industry expansion.
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- Significant Dividend Cut: Anglo declared a dividend of 23 cents per share, approximately $200 million, down 64% from last year's 64 cents per share, reflecting weaker diamond prices and management's decision to preserve balance sheet strength amid portfolio reshaping.
- Strategic Merger: Anglo has agreed to a transformative merger with Teck to create one of the world's largest copper producers, with shareholders approving the deal and regulatory clearances being sought, targeting completion once final approvals are secured.
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- Equity Exchange Agreement: Under the proposed terms, Faraday would acquire BHP's San Manuel property in exchange for a 30% equity interest, along with corresponding shareholder and marketing rights, which will help Faraday strengthen its market position.
- Investment Commitment: BHP has agreed to participate in any Faraday equity raises for two years, investing up to $20 million, which not only provides financial support to Faraday but also demonstrates BHP's confidence in the copper market.
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See More
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See More
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- Diversification Strategy: CEO Mike Henry reaffirmed at the BMO Capital Markets Conference that BHP will maintain its diversified mining model, despite copper accounting for over half of its EBITDA, showcasing its strong position in the copper market.
- Copper Production Growth: The company has raised its copper production guidance by 150,000 tons over the next two years, targeting around 2.5 million tons of copper equivalent output annually by 2035, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 3-4% between fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2035.
- South American Project Advancement: The Vicuña joint venture with Lundin has increased the district's copper resource to 47 million tons through recent drilling, with a final investment decision on Stage 1 expected by year-end, potentially yielding an average annual output of 500,000 tons of copper and 800,000 ounces of gold over the first decade.
- Capital Return Commitment: BHP commits to a minimum 50% payout ratio for dividends, having returned over $110 billion to shareholders in the past decade, demonstrating its dedication to creating value for shareholders while maintaining capital discipline.
See More
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- Declining Investment Competitiveness: BHP's coal operations in Queensland are facing significant challenges as they can no longer 'compete for investment,' with the joint venture with Mitsubishi generating over $1.67 billion in revenue in the past six months but remaining entirely unprofitable, highlighting the harsh market conditions.
- Financial Performance Under Pressure: Project President Adam Lancey stated that unsustainable royalty payments, rising production costs, and fluctuating coal prices have severely impacted financial performance, resulting in zero returns for every dollar invested, indicating serious sustainability issues.
- Increased Cost Pressures: BHP's decision to shutter one of its Queensland coal mines in September further illustrates the company's response to escalating cost pressures, signaling a strategic shift in its approach to the coal market.
- Uncertain Future: Despite strong revenue performance in the past, the lack of profitability and investment returns raises uncertainties about future investment and operational strategies, potentially affecting the company's overall financial health.
See More
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- Inventory Surge: Copper exchange inventories have surpassed 1 million tons for the first time in 21 years, indicating a lack of confidence in long-term supply, even as prices remain elevated compared to January levels, reflecting a tight supply-demand dynamic.
- Demand Slowdown: China's copper demand has softened, and smelter activity has slowed; nevertheless, copper is increasingly recognized as a foundational material for 21st-century infrastructure, particularly in electric vehicles and renewable energy applications.
- Strategic Investment: Capital expenditures to maintain current copper production are projected to reach $250 billion over the next decade, shifting market focus to emerging markets, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) becoming increasingly significant in global copper production.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite geological challenges, investors remain bullish on copper, anticipating sustained demand growth in electric vehicles, solar energy, and data centers, which will drive industry expansion.
See More
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- Impairment Accumulation: De Beers has recorded total impairments of $6.8 billion over the past year, and despite a 2% increase in operational earnings, the non-cash charge has pushed the group into losses, necessitating a reset of shareholder return strategies.
- Significant Dividend Cut: Anglo declared a dividend of 23 cents per share, approximately $200 million, down 64% from last year's 64 cents per share, reflecting weaker diamond prices and management's decision to preserve balance sheet strength amid portfolio reshaping.
- Strategic Merger: Anglo has agreed to a transformative merger with Teck to create one of the world's largest copper producers, with shareholders approving the deal and regulatory clearances being sought, targeting completion once final approvals are secured.
- De Beers Sale Plan: De Beers is under intense pressure with production declining for three consecutive years, and both Angola and Botswana have expressed interest in increasing their stakes in De Beers, which is currently up for sale with final binding bids expected this year.
See More
BHP Signs Letter of Intent with Faraday to Restart San Manuel Copper Mine
- Copper Mine Restart Plan: BHP has signed a non-binding letter of intent with Faraday Copper to evaluate restarting the San Manuel copper mine in Arizona, aiming to combine it with Faraday's Copper Creek project to create a larger copper development hub, which is expected to enhance U.S. copper supply capabilities.
- Equity Exchange Agreement: Under the proposed terms, Faraday would acquire BHP's San Manuel property in exchange for a 30% equity interest, along with corresponding shareholder and marketing rights, which will help Faraday strengthen its market position.
- Investment Commitment: BHP has agreed to participate in any Faraday equity raises for two years, investing up to $20 million, which not only provides financial support to Faraday but also demonstrates BHP's confidence in the copper market.
- Historical Context: The San Manuel mine was the largest underground copper mine in the U.S., operating from 1955 to 1999, and was closed due to low copper prices; the restart plan aims to restore its historical significance and support the resilience of the U.S. copper supply chain.
See More
BHP Explores New Pathways for U.S. Copper Supply
- Copper Supply Chain Collaboration: BHP has signed a non-binding letter of intent with Faraday Copper to potentially restart the San Manuel copper mine in Arizona, which is expected to enhance the resilience of the U.S. copper supply chain and support economic development in Pinal County.
- Silver Streaming Deal: BHP secured a $4.3 billion silver streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals, marking the largest precious metals streaming transaction ever, showcasing the company's strong performance in the precious metals market.
- Strong Stock Performance: BHP shares have increased by 44.06% over the past 12 months, currently trading at $75.20, which is 5.6% above its 20-day simple moving average, indicating robust short-term momentum.
- Analyst Rating Dynamics: The stock carries a Hold rating with an average price target of $51.33, while Argus Research upgraded it to Buy with a target of $68.00, reflecting optimistic market expectations for its future performance.
See More
