Company's Fiscal 2026 Guidance: Restaurant Revenue Growth of 0.5%-1.5%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy RRGB?
The company's fiscal 2026 guidance metrics are as follows:Comparable Restaurant Revenue growth, excluding deferred loyalty revenue, of 0.5% to 1.5%; Restaurant level operating profit of approximately 13.0%; Adjusted EBITDA of $70 million to $73 million; Capital expenditures of $25 million to $30 million.
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Analyst Views on RRGB
Wall Street analysts forecast RRGB stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 5.030
Low
7.00
Averages
10.00
High
12.00
Current: 5.030
Low
7.00
Averages
10.00
High
12.00
About RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, primarily operates, franchises, and develops casual dining restaurants in North America. The Company's menu features its signature product, a line of Gourmet Burgers with layers of fresh ingredients and fresh ground beef. It also offers burgers made with other proteins, including chicken breasts (grilled or fried), turkey patties, as well as a proprietary vegetarian patty and the Impossible plant-based burger patty. The Company offers a selection of buns, including gluten-free, sesame, brioche, and lettuce wraps, with a variety of toppings, including house-made sauces, crispy onion straws, sauteed mushrooms, several cheese choices, and a fried egg. It serves an array of other mainstream items, such as Donatos pizza, wings, salads, other entrees, and desserts. The Company’s beverage categories include alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and a variety of domestic, imported, and craft beers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Red Robin Shares Surge 32.8% After Strong Q4 Results and Positive 2026 Outlook
- Strong Earnings Beat: Red Robin reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.41 for Q4, surpassing analyst expectations, while revenue also exceeded forecasts, demonstrating the company's resilience in challenging conditions and boosting investor confidence.
- Optimistic Future Guidance: The company projects comparable restaurant revenue growth of 0.5% to 1.5% and adjusted EBITDA between $70 million and $73 million for 2026, indicating management's confidence in continued financial improvement, which may attract more investor interest.
- Increased Market Volatility: Red Robin's shares have experienced 53 moves greater than 5% over the past year, reflecting the market's heightened sensitivity to the company's outlook, particularly amid rising uncertainties surrounding global tariff policies.
- Long-term Investment Returns Lagging: Despite a 15.9% increase in share price year-to-date, Red Robin's current price of $4.80 remains 35.5% below its 52-week high, indicating a mere 15.64% return for investors over the past five years, which may dampen investor sentiment.
See More
Red Robin Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Strategic Insights
- Sales Performance Overview: Red Robin's comparable sales for 2025 decreased by 0.3%, with a 3.5% increase in average check offset by a 3.8% decline in traffic, indicating heightened market competition, although traffic improved in the latter half of the year following the impact of 2024 pricing actions.
- Profitability Improvement: The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $69.7 million for 2025, representing a 53% increase year-over-year, with restaurant-level operating profit margin rising by 190 basis points, demonstrating significant progress in cost control and efficiency despite only modest pricing adjustments.
- Marketing Strategy Shift: CEO Pace emphasized the transition from a broad, one-size-fits-all marketing approach to a more precise and efficient strategy, with expectations for increased selling expenses in 2026 to support the rollout of the new menu and marketing initiatives.
- Future Outlook: Management anticipates comparable restaurant revenue growth of 0.5% to 1.5% for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $70 million and $73 million, reflecting confidence in future growth despite challenges from rising beef prices and weather impacts.
See More
Marriott Vacations Reports Strong Q4, Shares Surge
- Earnings Beat: Marriott Vacations reported an adjusted EPS of $1.86 for Q4, surpassing market expectations of $1.57, which highlights the company's strong profitability and boosts investor confidence.
- Sales Growth: The company's quarterly sales reached $1.323 billion, exceeding the anticipated $1.294 billion, indicating sustained competitiveness in the market and enhancing shareholder value.
- Stock Surge: In pre-market trading, Marriott Vacations shares jumped 12.7% to $65.34, reflecting market optimism about the company's future growth potential and likely attracting more investor interest.
- Positive Guidance: The company also issued FY26 adjusted EPS guidance above estimates, further solidifying its leadership position in the vacation industry and laying a strong foundation for future growth.
See More
Red Robin (RRGB) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Releases Fiscal 2026 Guidance
- Earnings Beat: Red Robin reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.41, surpassing expectations by $0.18, indicating the company's resilience in maintaining profitability despite challenges.
- Slight Revenue Decline: The Q4 revenue of $269 million represents a 5.7% year-over-year decline; however, it exceeded market expectations by $4.74 million, demonstrating the company's sales resilience in a competitive landscape.
- Fiscal 2026 Guidance: The company projects comparable restaurant revenue growth of 0.5% to 1.5%, with restaurant-level operating profit around 13.0%, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook for future growth.
- EBITDA and Capital Expenditures: Expected adjusted EBITDA is between $70 million and $73 million, with capital expenditures projected at $25 million to $30 million, showcasing the company's strategic balance between cost control and future investment.
See More
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 25
- Earnings Announcement Date: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on February 25 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of -$0.59, reflecting a significant 37.2% year-over-year decline, indicating potential challenges in the current economic environment.
- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate for the quarter stands at $264.26 million, representing a 7.3% year-over-year decrease, which suggests that the company is facing sales pressures that could impact investor confidence and stock performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, RRGB has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a degree of volatility in financial performance that investors should carefully consider.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and one downward revision, while revenue estimates saw one upward revision, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance, which may influence investor decisions.
See More
Red Robin Shares Surge 32.8% After Strong Q4 Results and Positive 2026 Outlook
- Strong Earnings Beat: Red Robin reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.41 for Q4, surpassing analyst expectations, while revenue also exceeded forecasts, demonstrating the company's resilience in challenging conditions and boosting investor confidence.
- Optimistic Future Guidance: The company projects comparable restaurant revenue growth of 0.5% to 1.5% and adjusted EBITDA between $70 million and $73 million for 2026, indicating management's confidence in continued financial improvement, which may attract more investor interest.
- Increased Market Volatility: Red Robin's shares have experienced 53 moves greater than 5% over the past year, reflecting the market's heightened sensitivity to the company's outlook, particularly amid rising uncertainties surrounding global tariff policies.
- Long-term Investment Returns Lagging: Despite a 15.9% increase in share price year-to-date, Red Robin's current price of $4.80 remains 35.5% below its 52-week high, indicating a mere 15.64% return for investors over the past five years, which may dampen investor sentiment.
See More
Red Robin Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Strategic Insights
- Sales Performance Overview: Red Robin's comparable sales for 2025 decreased by 0.3%, with a 3.5% increase in average check offset by a 3.8% decline in traffic, indicating heightened market competition, although traffic improved in the latter half of the year following the impact of 2024 pricing actions.
- Profitability Improvement: The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $69.7 million for 2025, representing a 53% increase year-over-year, with restaurant-level operating profit margin rising by 190 basis points, demonstrating significant progress in cost control and efficiency despite only modest pricing adjustments.
- Marketing Strategy Shift: CEO Pace emphasized the transition from a broad, one-size-fits-all marketing approach to a more precise and efficient strategy, with expectations for increased selling expenses in 2026 to support the rollout of the new menu and marketing initiatives.
- Future Outlook: Management anticipates comparable restaurant revenue growth of 0.5% to 1.5% for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $70 million and $73 million, reflecting confidence in future growth despite challenges from rising beef prices and weather impacts.
See More
Marriott Vacations Reports Strong Q4, Shares Surge
- Earnings Beat: Marriott Vacations reported an adjusted EPS of $1.86 for Q4, surpassing market expectations of $1.57, which highlights the company's strong profitability and boosts investor confidence.
- Sales Growth: The company's quarterly sales reached $1.323 billion, exceeding the anticipated $1.294 billion, indicating sustained competitiveness in the market and enhancing shareholder value.
- Stock Surge: In pre-market trading, Marriott Vacations shares jumped 12.7% to $65.34, reflecting market optimism about the company's future growth potential and likely attracting more investor interest.
- Positive Guidance: The company also issued FY26 adjusted EPS guidance above estimates, further solidifying its leadership position in the vacation industry and laying a strong foundation for future growth.
See More
Red Robin (RRGB) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Releases Fiscal 2026 Guidance
- Earnings Beat: Red Robin reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.41, surpassing expectations by $0.18, indicating the company's resilience in maintaining profitability despite challenges.
- Slight Revenue Decline: The Q4 revenue of $269 million represents a 5.7% year-over-year decline; however, it exceeded market expectations by $4.74 million, demonstrating the company's sales resilience in a competitive landscape.
- Fiscal 2026 Guidance: The company projects comparable restaurant revenue growth of 0.5% to 1.5%, with restaurant-level operating profit around 13.0%, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook for future growth.
- EBITDA and Capital Expenditures: Expected adjusted EBITDA is between $70 million and $73 million, with capital expenditures projected at $25 million to $30 million, showcasing the company's strategic balance between cost control and future investment.
See More
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 25
- Earnings Announcement Date: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on February 25 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of -$0.59, reflecting a significant 37.2% year-over-year decline, indicating potential challenges in the current economic environment.
- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate for the quarter stands at $264.26 million, representing a 7.3% year-over-year decrease, which suggests that the company is facing sales pressures that could impact investor confidence and stock performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, RRGB has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a degree of volatility in financial performance that investors should carefully consider.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and one downward revision, while revenue estimates saw one upward revision, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance, which may influence investor decisions.
See More
