Citi Says Arbutus Biopharma Patent Invalidated, Moderna Wins
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 19 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ABUS?
Citi says the European Patent Office Board of Appeal invalidated a key Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) delivery technology patent, which is a "clear win" for Moderna (MRNA). The invalidation neutralizes a "significant legal threat" for Moderna before the Unified Patent Court and reduces its potential royalty exposure on the continent, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, Citi believes Moderna's U.S. patent battle remains the primary overhang on the shares. It keeps a Neutral rating on the stock with a $28 price target.
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Analyst Views on ABUS
Wall Street analysts forecast ABUS stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 4.670
Low
7.00
Averages
7.00
High
7.00
Current: 4.670
Low
7.00
Averages
7.00
High
7.00
About ABUS
Arbutus Biopharma Corporation is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on infectious disease. The Company is developing imdusiran (AB-729), its proprietary, conjugated GalNAc, subcutaneously delivered RNAi therapeutic, and AB-101, its proprietary oral PD-L1 inhibitor, for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (cHBV). Its HBV product pipeline includes Imdusiran and AB-101. Its pipeline includes two product candidates that target various steps in the HBV viral lifecycle and consists of various programs: RNAi therapeutic (imdusiran, AB-729) and Oral PD-L1 Inhibitor (AB-101). RNAi therapeutics utilize a natural pathway within cells to silence genes by eliminating the disease-causing proteins that they code for. PD-L1 inhibitors complement its pipeline of agents and could potentially be a part of a combination therapy for the treatment of HBV by reawakening the immune system.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Moderna Settles for Up to $2.25 Billion with Arbutus and Genevant
- Settlement Agreement: Moderna has reached a settlement of up to $2.25 billion with Arbutus and Genevant, resolving all enforcement actions related to its COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax and RSV vaccine mRESVIA, ensuring no future royalties and enhancing strategic stability in its infectious disease portfolio.
- Significant Financial Impact: Under the agreement, Moderna will pay $950 million in Q3 2026, with the remaining $1.3 billion contingent on further litigation outcomes, which could significantly affect future cash flows depending on the litigation results.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the settlement announcement, Moderna's shares surged 11% in after-hours trading, indicating investor optimism about the company's future, while Arbutus shares fell 8%, reflecting market uncertainty regarding its prospects.
- Optimistic Liquidity Outlook: Moderna expects to have $5.4 to $5.9 billion in liquidity by the end of 2026, demonstrating that after resolving legacy issues, the company can focus on future vaccine development and market opportunities, further solidifying its leadership in the biopharmaceutical industry.
See More
Moderna Settles $2.25 Billion Patent Dispute with Genevant and Arbutus
- Record Settlement Amount: Moderna will pay Genevant and Arbutus $950 million upfront and an additional $1.3 billion contingent upon a successful appeal, making this the largest disclosed patent settlement in the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the importance of intellectual property.
- Technology Licensing Agreement: As part of the settlement, Genevant grants Moderna a global non-exclusive license to use LNP delivery technology for SM-102-containing mRNA vaccines, effectively ending all patent infringement litigation related to its COVID-19 vaccines, ensuring the legality of Moderna's products.
- Acknowledgment of Legal Liability: Moderna agrees to acknowledge infringement on four Genevant/Arbutus patents and consents to a court judgment of no invalidity, which not only reduces future legal risks but also secures the company's ongoing operations in the vaccine market.
- Positive Market Reaction: This settlement is expected to provide significant cash inflow for Roivant, enhancing its capital efficiency and supporting a $500 million share repurchase plan, which will further boost investor confidence and potentially drive stock price appreciation.
See More
Delaware Judge Dismisses Key Defenses in Moderna Patent Case
- Patent Defense Dismissed: Delaware Judge Joshua Wolson has dismissed two key defenses raised by Moderna in its ongoing patent litigation against Arbutus Biopharma, particularly the defense based on obviousness, stating that Moderna failed to raise these claims in prior inter partes review, thus barring them from asserting them in this case.
- Impact of IPR Estoppel: The judge emphasized that IPR estoppel prevents defendants from raising obviousness claims made in an IPR proceeding, which Moderna already lost, further weakening its position in the litigation.
- Issue Preclusion Defense Fails: Moderna's other defense, based on issue preclusion, argued that the patent subject matter was not actually invented by Arbutus; however, the judge noted that Moderna failed to demonstrate prior conception by another, with its own expert conceding that an Arbutus scientist encapsulated mRNA in lipid nanoparticles before Moderna did.
- Enablement Defense Allowed: Despite facing significant setbacks, the judge has allowed Moderna's enablement defense to proceed, asserting that enablement ensures adequate disclosure of the claimed invention and prevents claims broader than what is disclosed, potentially providing Moderna with a continued avenue for defense.
See More
Arbutus Biopharma Shares Rise 10% After Patent Ruling
- Patent Dispute Update: A federal judge in Delaware ruled that the patent dispute involving Moderna's mRNA COVID-19 vaccine should be settled in a jury trial, leading to a ~10% rise in Arbutus Biopharma's stock, reflecting market optimism about its potential success.
- Judge's Ruling Details: Judge Joshua Wolson noted that the prosecution history of some of Arbutus's patents limits its doctrine-of-equivalents claims based on Moderna's vaccine, indicating that Arbutus must prove literal infringement to succeed, adding complexity to the case.
- Jury Trial Timeline: The jury trial is set to begin in March next year, a timeline that may influence Arbutus's stock volatility, prompting investors to closely monitor the case's developments and its potential impact on the company's future.
- Technical Context: The dispute centers on the lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery technology developed by Arbutus and Genevant Sciences, which is crucial for preventing mRNA degradation; a favorable ruling for Arbutus could significantly impact Moderna's vaccine production.
See More
Health Care Stocks Decline as NYSE Health Care Index Eases 0.5%
- Overall Decline in Health Care Stocks: Late Friday afternoon, health care stocks broadly declined, with the NYSE Health Care Index easing 0.5%, reflecting a weakening market confidence in the sector that could impact short-term investor decisions.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: The drop in health care stocks may be linked to overall market sentiment fluctuations, as increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects leads to capital outflows from the health sector, affecting industry capital flows.
- Investor Focus Shift: As health care stocks decline, investors may reassess their portfolios, considering reallocating funds to other sectors with greater growth potential, which could impact capital inflows into the health industry.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: The short-term performance of the health care sector may be influenced by policy changes and market dynamics, necessitating investors to closely monitor relevant policies and market trends to make timely investment decisions.
See More
Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) Patent Revocation Leads to 18% Stock Crash
- Patent Revocation Impact: The European Patent Office revoked Arbutus's EP 2279254 patent on January 15, causing its stock to plummet over 18% on Friday, marking the largest intraday decline since July 2020, indicating market concerns about the company's future legal standing.
- Legal Response Plan: Arbutus plans to seek a review from the Enlarged Board of Appeal, asserting that the ruling will not affect its patent infringement cases against Moderna in the U.S., Canada, and Japan, demonstrating its confidence in ongoing legal battles.
- Market Reaction: Despite the sharp decline in stock price, retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted from bearish to bullish, with some users viewing the drop as an opportunity to establish new positions, reflecting divergent views on the company's long-term prospects.
- Competitor Dynamics: While Arbutus's stock fell, Moderna's shares rose by 7%, and Merck's fell by 2%, highlighting varying market reactions to competitors that could influence Arbutus's competitive position moving forward.
See More
Moderna Settles for Up to $2.25 Billion with Arbutus and Genevant
- Settlement Agreement: Moderna has reached a settlement of up to $2.25 billion with Arbutus and Genevant, resolving all enforcement actions related to its COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax and RSV vaccine mRESVIA, ensuring no future royalties and enhancing strategic stability in its infectious disease portfolio.
- Significant Financial Impact: Under the agreement, Moderna will pay $950 million in Q3 2026, with the remaining $1.3 billion contingent on further litigation outcomes, which could significantly affect future cash flows depending on the litigation results.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the settlement announcement, Moderna's shares surged 11% in after-hours trading, indicating investor optimism about the company's future, while Arbutus shares fell 8%, reflecting market uncertainty regarding its prospects.
- Optimistic Liquidity Outlook: Moderna expects to have $5.4 to $5.9 billion in liquidity by the end of 2026, demonstrating that after resolving legacy issues, the company can focus on future vaccine development and market opportunities, further solidifying its leadership in the biopharmaceutical industry.
See More
Moderna Settles $2.25 Billion Patent Dispute with Genevant and Arbutus
- Record Settlement Amount: Moderna will pay Genevant and Arbutus $950 million upfront and an additional $1.3 billion contingent upon a successful appeal, making this the largest disclosed patent settlement in the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the importance of intellectual property.
- Technology Licensing Agreement: As part of the settlement, Genevant grants Moderna a global non-exclusive license to use LNP delivery technology for SM-102-containing mRNA vaccines, effectively ending all patent infringement litigation related to its COVID-19 vaccines, ensuring the legality of Moderna's products.
- Acknowledgment of Legal Liability: Moderna agrees to acknowledge infringement on four Genevant/Arbutus patents and consents to a court judgment of no invalidity, which not only reduces future legal risks but also secures the company's ongoing operations in the vaccine market.
- Positive Market Reaction: This settlement is expected to provide significant cash inflow for Roivant, enhancing its capital efficiency and supporting a $500 million share repurchase plan, which will further boost investor confidence and potentially drive stock price appreciation.
See More
Delaware Judge Dismisses Key Defenses in Moderna Patent Case
- Patent Defense Dismissed: Delaware Judge Joshua Wolson has dismissed two key defenses raised by Moderna in its ongoing patent litigation against Arbutus Biopharma, particularly the defense based on obviousness, stating that Moderna failed to raise these claims in prior inter partes review, thus barring them from asserting them in this case.
- Impact of IPR Estoppel: The judge emphasized that IPR estoppel prevents defendants from raising obviousness claims made in an IPR proceeding, which Moderna already lost, further weakening its position in the litigation.
- Issue Preclusion Defense Fails: Moderna's other defense, based on issue preclusion, argued that the patent subject matter was not actually invented by Arbutus; however, the judge noted that Moderna failed to demonstrate prior conception by another, with its own expert conceding that an Arbutus scientist encapsulated mRNA in lipid nanoparticles before Moderna did.
- Enablement Defense Allowed: Despite facing significant setbacks, the judge has allowed Moderna's enablement defense to proceed, asserting that enablement ensures adequate disclosure of the claimed invention and prevents claims broader than what is disclosed, potentially providing Moderna with a continued avenue for defense.
See More
Arbutus Biopharma Shares Rise 10% After Patent Ruling
- Patent Dispute Update: A federal judge in Delaware ruled that the patent dispute involving Moderna's mRNA COVID-19 vaccine should be settled in a jury trial, leading to a ~10% rise in Arbutus Biopharma's stock, reflecting market optimism about its potential success.
- Judge's Ruling Details: Judge Joshua Wolson noted that the prosecution history of some of Arbutus's patents limits its doctrine-of-equivalents claims based on Moderna's vaccine, indicating that Arbutus must prove literal infringement to succeed, adding complexity to the case.
- Jury Trial Timeline: The jury trial is set to begin in March next year, a timeline that may influence Arbutus's stock volatility, prompting investors to closely monitor the case's developments and its potential impact on the company's future.
- Technical Context: The dispute centers on the lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery technology developed by Arbutus and Genevant Sciences, which is crucial for preventing mRNA degradation; a favorable ruling for Arbutus could significantly impact Moderna's vaccine production.
See More
Health Care Stocks Decline as NYSE Health Care Index Eases 0.5%
- Overall Decline in Health Care Stocks: Late Friday afternoon, health care stocks broadly declined, with the NYSE Health Care Index easing 0.5%, reflecting a weakening market confidence in the sector that could impact short-term investor decisions.
- Market Sentiment Fluctuations: The drop in health care stocks may be linked to overall market sentiment fluctuations, as increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects leads to capital outflows from the health sector, affecting industry capital flows.
- Investor Focus Shift: As health care stocks decline, investors may reassess their portfolios, considering reallocating funds to other sectors with greater growth potential, which could impact capital inflows into the health industry.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: The short-term performance of the health care sector may be influenced by policy changes and market dynamics, necessitating investors to closely monitor relevant policies and market trends to make timely investment decisions.
See More
Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) Patent Revocation Leads to 18% Stock Crash
- Patent Revocation Impact: The European Patent Office revoked Arbutus's EP 2279254 patent on January 15, causing its stock to plummet over 18% on Friday, marking the largest intraday decline since July 2020, indicating market concerns about the company's future legal standing.
- Legal Response Plan: Arbutus plans to seek a review from the Enlarged Board of Appeal, asserting that the ruling will not affect its patent infringement cases against Moderna in the U.S., Canada, and Japan, demonstrating its confidence in ongoing legal battles.
- Market Reaction: Despite the sharp decline in stock price, retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted from bearish to bullish, with some users viewing the drop as an opportunity to establish new positions, reflecting divergent views on the company's long-term prospects.
- Competitor Dynamics: While Arbutus's stock fell, Moderna's shares rose by 7%, and Merck's fell by 2%, highlighting varying market reactions to competitors that could influence Arbutus's competitive position moving forward.
See More
