BlackSky Sees FY26 Adjusted EBITDA of $120M to $145M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy BKSY?
Sees FY26 adjusted EBITDA $120M-$145M. The company said, "BlackSky expects full year 2026 revenue to be between $120 million and $145 million, full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be between $6 million and $18 million, and full year 2026 capital expenditures to be between $50 million and $60 million."
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Analyst Views on BKSY
Wall Street analysts forecast BKSY stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 18.850
Low
20.00
Averages
26.33
High
42.00
Current: 18.850
Low
20.00
Averages
26.33
High
42.00
About BKSY
BlackSky Technology Inc. is a space-based intelligence company. The Company delivers on-demand, high frequency imagery, monitoring and analytics of the strategic locations, economic assets, and events in the world. It designs, owns, and operates low earth orbit small satellite constellations. Its BlackSky Spectra platform processes data from its constellation and from other third-party sensors to develop the critical insights and analytics that its customers require. Its Spectra is a first-of-its-kind commercial platform that helps customers manage their monitoring activities from space. Spectra software platform processes millions of observations a day from both its proprietary satellite constellations and by using data from multiple external sources, including imaging, radar and radio frequency satellites, environmental sensors, asset tracking sensors, Internet of Thing connected devices, internet-enabled narrative sources, and a variety of geotemporal data feeds.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Stock Surge: BlackSky Technology (BKSY) shares rose 14.11% to $21.51 on Monday, demonstrating strong market performance amid escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, reflecting investor optimism about the company's growth potential.
- Conflict Escalation: The U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran over the weekend, resulting in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, with expectations that the conflict could last four to five weeks, increasing the demand for real-time satellite intelligence, which may present new business opportunities for BlackSky.
- Increased Military Demand: In large-scale military operations, real-time satellite intelligence is crucial for tracking troop movements, assessing damage, and monitoring missile and drone launches, making BlackSky's services particularly vital in the current situation, potentially driving revenue growth.
- Infrastructure Damage: Key infrastructures like Qatar Energy and Saudi Aramco have been hit, leading to LNG production and refinery shutdowns, which may further stimulate demand for BlackSky's intelligence services amid ongoing instability.
See More
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- Earnings Beat: Astrana Health Inc. reported quarterly earnings of 54 cents per share, significantly surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 11 cents, indicating a strong improvement in profitability and boosting market confidence in future growth.
- Sales Growth: The company achieved quarterly sales of $950.526 million, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $930.451 million, demonstrating robust demand for its products and competitive positioning, which may drive future investments and expansion.
- Stock Surge: Astrana Health's shares jumped 29.5% to $26.32 during Monday's session, reflecting a positive investor reaction to the strong earnings report, potentially attracting more institutional investors' interest.
- Market Context: While U.S. stocks were generally lower, with the Dow Jones index falling over 150 points, Astrana Health's strong performance highlights the resilience of individual stocks in uncertain market conditions, possibly providing new investment opportunities for investors.
See More
BlackSky Technology Stock Decline Analysis
- Earnings Performance: BlackSky reported a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share, beating the analyst consensus estimate of a $0.21 loss, yet its revenue of $35.214 million fell short of the $37.056 million expectation, indicating challenges in revenue growth that could impact future investor confidence.
- Stock Price Trends: Currently trading at $17.79, BlackSky is 17.8% below its 20-day SMA of $21.57 and 21.2% below its 50-day SMA of $22.51, reflecting bearish sentiment in the market that may lead to further selling pressure.
- Industry Performance Comparison: While the Communication Services sector saw a modest gain of $0.46, BlackSky significantly underperformed, with a year-over-year growth of 22.8% trailing the peer average of 32.46%, highlighting the company's competitive disadvantages and the need for strategic adjustments to improve market positioning.
- Analyst Ratings: Despite maintaining a Buy rating with a price target of $24.80, recent adjustments in target prices reflect a cautious outlook on future earnings, which may affect investor confidence in the stock.
See More
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- Defense Spending Surge: Oppenheimer estimates that global defense expenditures have reached approximately $3 trillion, reflecting a 50% increase over the past five years, with projections suggesting this figure could double within the next decade due to escalating geopolitical tensions driving military budgets.
- Drone Market Potential: The firm forecasts that the total addressable market for drones could expand from $45 billion today to $400 billion globally, encompassing hardware, services, AI, and related software, indicating the rapid growth potential of drones in modern warfare and commercial markets.
- Ondas Holdings Standout: Analyst Timothy Horan highlighted Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) as a preferred investment within the rapidly expanding lower-skies segment, focusing on AI-enabled aerial security and infrastructure monitoring, with its stock gaining over 925% in the past 12 months.
- Complementary Satellite Operators: Horan also pointed to satellite operators BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) and Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) as complementary plays, emphasizing their roles in providing real-time imagery and secure connectivity for unmanned systems, further driving growth in the drone market.
See More
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- Technological Transformation: The rapid advancement of drone technology is reshaping warfare, with analysts noting that the Ukraine conflict showcases the advantages of low-cost drones in surveillance and precision strikes, driving modernization of military equipment.
- Investment Opportunities: Analyst Timothy Horan recommends Ondas as a leading drone platform in the lower-skies market, expecting the company to achieve high ROI through integration with ground robots, thus boosting market share.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Oppenheimer emphasizes that future competition in drones will be a
See More
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- Launch Delay: Rocket Lab announced that the inaugural launch of its Neutron rocket has been postponed to Q4 2026 due to a Stage 1 tank failure caused by a third-party hand layup defect, which may impact the company's future launch schedule and market confidence.
- Earnings Highlights: The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $179.65 million, exceeding market expectations of $178.47 million, although it posted a loss of nine cents per share, which was better than the analyst forecast of a ten-cent loss, demonstrating resilience in revenue growth.
- Future Outlook: Rocket Lab expects first-quarter revenue to be between $185 million and $200 million, slightly above the market estimate of $184.98 million, despite anticipating an adjusted EBITDA loss of $21 million to $27 million, reflecting challenges in business expansion.
- Strategic Acquisitions: The company acquired Auckland-based Precision Components Limited, enhancing its large-scale precision manufacturing capabilities, and completed the acquisition of Optical Support, Inc., further boosting its high-precision optical systems for satellites and missile defense.
See More
