Carnival Reports Non-GAAP EPS of $0.34, Exceeding Estimates by $0.09; Revenue of $6.33B Falls Short by $40M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CCL?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Q4 Financial Performance: Carnival reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.34, beating expectations by $0.09, while revenue of $6.33 billion increased by 6.6% year-over-year but missed estimates by $40 million.
Record Customer Deposits: The company achieved record customer deposits of $7.2 billion, surpassing the previous fourth quarter record as of November 30, 2024.
2026 Financial Outlook: For the full year 2026, Carnival anticipates a 12% increase in adjusted net income and a 2.5% rise in net yields, despite less than 1% capacity growth.
Q1 2026 Expectations: In the first quarter of 2026, Carnival expects net yields to increase by approximately 1.6% compared to 2025, with adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD projected to rise by about 5.9% compared to Q1 2025.
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Analyst Views on CCL
Wall Street analysts forecast CCL stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 31.550
Low
33.00
Averages
37.41
High
45.00
Current: 31.550
Low
33.00
Averages
37.41
High
45.00
About CCL
Carnival Corporation is a global cruise and leisure travel company. The Company has a portfolio of cruise lines, including AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn. The Company's segment includes NAA cruise operations, Europe cruise operations (Europe), Cruise Support and Tour and Other. Its Cruise Support segment includes its portfolio of port destinations and exclusive islands as well as other services, all of which are operated for the benefit of its cruise brands. In addition to its cruise operations, it owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours, a tour company in Alaska and the Canadian Yukon, which complements its Alaska cruise operations. Its Tour and Other segment represents the hotel and transportation operations of Holland America Princess Alaska Tours and other operations. Its tour company owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars and motorcoaches.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Surge in Oil Prices: WTI crude oil prices soared over 6% to an 8.25-month high following Iran's attack on oil tankers, which is expected to elevate inflation expectations and impact the overall economic environment and investor confidence.
- Strong Manufacturing Index: The US February ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to 52.4, surpassing the market expectation of 51.5, indicating economic resilience that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, leading to shifts in future rate hike expectations.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: More than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 73% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, providing market support despite geopolitical risks.
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- Market Performance Contrast: While the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 indices rose, alongside gains in defense and energy stocks, Carnival's stock faced pressure, highlighting its vulnerability and high leverage in the global market context.
- Increased Operational Risks: Carnival continues to generate revenue from itineraries in the Mediterranean and Gulf regions, where port disruptions and rising insurance and security costs have raised investor concerns about operational risks.
- Earnings Report Preview: Carnival is set to release its earnings report on March 20, with an estimated EPS of 18 cents and revenue of $6.12 billion, indicating potential recovery post-COVID, yet the market remains cautious about its ability to navigate geopolitical volatility.
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- Rising Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 11 basis points to 4.07%, marking the largest one-day increase since April, reflecting heightened concerns about future economic prospects that may influence investor risk appetite.
See More
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Analysis of Significant Stock Movements
- AeroVironment Stock Decline: AeroVironment shares fell approximately 20% after Raymond James downgraded its rating from strong buy to underperform, losing exclusivity on a $1.4 billion contract with the U.S. Space Force, which could negatively impact future revenues.
- Palantir Sales Surge: Palantir's stock rose 6%, making it the biggest gainer in the S&P 500, with U.S. government revenue accounting for 41% of its sales in Q4, reflecting a 66% year-over-year increase, indicating potential growth from increased defense spending.
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- Stock Price Plunge: Carnival Corporation's stock dropped 10.7% in early trading on Monday due to panic in the market following the outbreak of war in the Gulf, with investors increasingly worried about short-term revenue losses leading to a sharp decline in share price.
- Strait of Hormuz Closure Risk: Iran's announcement to 'close' the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil supplies are transported, has raised insurance rates by 50%, causing a spike in fuel costs that directly impacts Carnival's operational expenses.
- Travel Disruptions: Increased danger in the Middle East has led to flight cancellations, stranding tens of thousands of passengers, which affects not only Carnival's port calls but also the flights that connect passengers to their cruise ships, exacerbating concerns in the cruise industry.
- Overreaction in the Market: Analysts suggest that while Carnival may face revenue losses in the short term, the 10% sell-off appears excessive, and the company is expected to return to normal operations in the future, indicating that market sentiment may gradually improve.
See More
Mixed Close for US Stocks Amid Iran War Impact
- Mixed Market Performance: On Monday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.04%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.13%, reflecting a divergence in market sentiment influenced by the ongoing war in Iran, with increased demand for defense and energy stocks.
- Surge in Oil Prices: WTI crude oil prices soared over 6% to an 8.25-month high following Iran's attack on oil tankers, which is expected to elevate inflation expectations and impact the overall economic environment and investor confidence.
- Strong Manufacturing Index: The US February ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to 52.4, surpassing the market expectation of 51.5, indicating economic resilience that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, leading to shifts in future rate hike expectations.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: More than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 73% exceeding expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, providing market support despite geopolitical risks.
See More
Carnival Corp Shares Decline Amid Geopolitical Risks
- Stock Price Decline: Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL) shares fell 7.13% on Monday afternoon due to coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, reflecting market concerns over geopolitical and fuel risks impacting cruise operators.
- Market Performance Contrast: While the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 indices rose, alongside gains in defense and energy stocks, Carnival's stock faced pressure, highlighting its vulnerability and high leverage in the global market context.
- Increased Operational Risks: Carnival continues to generate revenue from itineraries in the Mediterranean and Gulf regions, where port disruptions and rising insurance and security costs have raised investor concerns about operational risks.
- Earnings Report Preview: Carnival is set to release its earnings report on March 20, with an estimated EPS of 18 cents and revenue of $6.12 billion, indicating potential recovery post-COVID, yet the market remains cautious about its ability to navigate geopolitical volatility.
See More
Wall Street Rebounds at Midday, Driven by Strong Tech Stocks
- Market Rebound: Wall Street traded higher at midday on Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.3% to 25,025, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment as concerns over Middle East tensions eased.
- Tech Stocks Lead Gains: Palantir Technologies surged 6.5%, becoming the top performer in the S&P 500, suggesting a renewed confidence in tech stocks that could attract more investment into the sector.
- Energy Market Volatility: Oil prices rallied 5.1% to $70 per barrel, although they cooled after briefly hitting $75, with the energy sector rising 1.3% and Marathon Petroleum Corp. leading the group with a 4.5% gain.
- Rising Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 11 basis points to 4.07%, marking the largest one-day increase since April, reflecting heightened concerns about future economic prospects that may influence investor risk appetite.
See More
Iran War Drives Market Volatility and Sector Performance
- Market Reaction: Stocks initially retreated following the US and Israel's joint military actions against Iran, but rebounded after the February ISM manufacturing index exceeded expectations, indicating investor focus on economic data.
- Surge in Energy Prices: The halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to Iran's attacks on three oil tankers led to WTI crude oil prices soaring over 65% to an 8.25-month high, potentially exacerbating global inflationary pressures.
- Defense Stocks Rise: The ongoing conflict in Iran has bolstered earnings prospects for defense companies, with Aerovironment's stock rising over 12%, while Northrop Grumman and RTX Corp also saw increases of over 4%, reflecting market optimism about defense spending.
- Economic Data Focus: Investors are keenly awaiting upcoming economic data releases, including ADP employment changes and the ISM services index, which are expected to influence future monetary policy directions amid rising inflation concerns.
See More
Analysis of Significant Stock Movements
- AeroVironment Stock Decline: AeroVironment shares fell approximately 20% after Raymond James downgraded its rating from strong buy to underperform, losing exclusivity on a $1.4 billion contract with the U.S. Space Force, which could negatively impact future revenues.
- Palantir Sales Surge: Palantir's stock rose 6%, making it the biggest gainer in the S&P 500, with U.S. government revenue accounting for 41% of its sales in Q4, reflecting a 66% year-over-year increase, indicating potential growth from increased defense spending.
- Norwegian Cruise Line Earnings Guidance Cut: Norwegian Cruise Line shares dropped 10% due to weaker-than-expected earnings guidance for 2026, projecting earnings per share at $2.38, below the FactSet estimate of $2.57, raising concerns about its future profitability.
- AES Acquisition Announcement: AES shares plunged 17% after a consortium led by BlackRock announced plans to acquire the company for nearly $11 billion, offering shareholders $15 per share in cash, with the deal expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027.
See More
Carnival Corporation Stock Plummets Amid Gulf War Escalation
- Stock Price Plunge: Carnival Corporation's stock dropped 10.7% in early trading on Monday due to panic in the market following the outbreak of war in the Gulf, with investors increasingly worried about short-term revenue losses leading to a sharp decline in share price.
- Strait of Hormuz Closure Risk: Iran's announcement to 'close' the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil supplies are transported, has raised insurance rates by 50%, causing a spike in fuel costs that directly impacts Carnival's operational expenses.
- Travel Disruptions: Increased danger in the Middle East has led to flight cancellations, stranding tens of thousands of passengers, which affects not only Carnival's port calls but also the flights that connect passengers to their cruise ships, exacerbating concerns in the cruise industry.
- Overreaction in the Market: Analysts suggest that while Carnival may face revenue losses in the short term, the 10% sell-off appears excessive, and the company is expected to return to normal operations in the future, indicating that market sentiment may gradually improve.
See More
