U.S. Q4 2025 Economic Growth Slows Below Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Economic Growth Data: The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4 2025, significantly below the Dow Jones estimate of 2.5%, indicating a sluggish recovery primarily due to government shutdown impacts.
- Government Shutdown Impact: The U.S. government shutdown lasted for 43 days from October 1 to November 12, marking the longest in history, which depressed growth by over 1% below expectations, with a rebound anticipated in Q1.
- Federal Spending Contraction: Federal expenditure contracted at an annualized rate of 16.6% in Q4, subtracting 1.2 percentage points from overall GDP, highlighting the substantial influence of government policy on economic performance.
- Future Outlook: Despite disappointing Q4 data, analysts expect robust economic growth in 2026 driven by business investment and consumer spending, with GDP growth projected to approach 2.5%, slightly above the long-term trend of 2%.
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Analyst Views on CME
Wall Street analysts forecast CME stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 319.500
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
Current: 319.500
Low
209.00
Averages
285.90
High
320.00
About CME
CME Group Inc. provides a derivatives marketplace. The Company enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and over the counter (OTC) markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data. It exchanges offer a range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), energy, agricultural products and metals. It offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and FX trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates central counterparty clearing provider, CME Clearing. Its products provide a means for hedging, speculation and asset allocation related to the risks associated with, among other things, interest rate sensitive instruments, and changes in the prices of agricultural, energy and metal commodities. It provides clearing and settlement services for a range of exchange-traded futures and options on futures contracts and OTC derivatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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