UBS Upgrades Warrior Met Coal to Buy with $108 Target
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy HCC?
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Upgrade: UBS upgraded Warrior Met Coal from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target from $100 to $108, indicating the company is entering an inflection point with compelling returns and margins.
- Project Progress: Analysts expect Warrior to deliver double-digit returns in H2 2026 as the Blue Creek steelmaking coal project ramps up, with further upside from a second longwall and rising coal prices not yet reflected in the market.
- Conservative Guidance: Warrior is expected to provide conservative guidance for its 2026 outlook in two weeks, but analysts see upside to 2026-27 consensus estimates supported by elevated prices and operational performance.
- Future Growth Potential: As Warrior delivers saleable tons at Blue Creek in H2 2026, investors will witness strong margins and returns outlook, leading analysts to anticipate further upside in share prices ahead of growth considerations for 2027 and beyond.
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Analyst Views on HCC
Wall Street analysts forecast HCC stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 81.130
Low
72.00
Averages
83.00
High
100.00
Current: 81.130
Low
72.00
Averages
83.00
High
100.00
About HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is a producer and exporter of steelmaking coal, also known as hard coking coal (HCC), operating longwall operations in its underground mines based in Alabama. The Company’s two operating mines, Mine No. 4 and Mine No. 7, and Blue Creek are located approximately 300 miles from its export terminal at the Port of Mobile in Alabama. The Company sells its coal to a diversified customer base of blast furnace steel producers, primarily located in Europe, South America and Asia. The Company’s HCC, mined from the Southern Appalachian region of the United States, is characterized by low-to-high volatile matter (VM) and high coke strength after reaction (CSR). Mine No.7 operates two longwalls, while Mine No.4 runs a single longwall. Mine No. 4 and Mine No. 7 are located approximately 20 miles east of Tuscaloosa, Alabama and 30 miles southwest of Birmingham, Alabama.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
WARRIOR MET COAL INC: B. RILEY INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $74 TO $120
- Company Update: Warrior Met Coal, Inc. has raised its target price significantly from $74 to $120.
- Analyst Insight: The increase in target price reflects positive market expectations and potential growth for the company.
See More
Bullish Thesis on Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Highlights Growth Potential
- Production Capacity Increase: Warrior Met Coal's Blue Creek mine ramp-up is expected to boost total production capacity by approximately 75%, positioning the company as a low-cost, high-quality coal producer, marking a structural inflection point for the firm.
- Strong Cash Flow: The legacy Mines 4 and 7 continue to generate robust cash flow, funding the Blue Creek expansion while maintaining a lean cost structure, ensuring sustainable shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.
- Logistics Advantage: Warrior benefits from a logistics moat with direct access to the Port of Mobile, enabling efficient exports to Europe, South America, and the rapidly growing Asian market, where demand for premium coking coal is structurally non-substitutable.
- Free Cash Flow Phase: The completion of Blue Creek shifts the company from high capital expenditures to a free cash flow generation phase, with sustaining capital expected to normalize around $140–150 million annually, supporting shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.
See More
Warrior Met Coal and Semtech Options Show High Trading Volume
- Warrior Met Coal Options: Warrior Met Coal Inc (Ticker: HCC) has seen an options volume of 6,186 contracts today, representing approximately 618,600 shares, which is 55.7% of its average daily trading volume of 1.1 million shares over the past month.
- High Volume Call Options: Notably, the $80 strike call option expiring on May 15, 2026, has traded 5,530 contracts, equating to about 553,000 shares, indicating strong market expectations for future price increases of HCC.
- Semtech Options Activity: Semtech Corp (Ticker: SMTC) has recorded an options volume of 8,096 contracts today, representing approximately 809,600 shares, which is 55.3% of its average daily trading volume of 1.5 million shares over the past month.
- High Volume Put Options: The $85 strike put option expiring on April 17, 2026, has seen 4,001 contracts traded, representing about 400,100 shares, reflecting market concerns regarding potential declines in SMTC's stock price.
See More
Mohnish Pabrai's Investment Portfolio Adjustments in Q4 2025
- Portfolio Overview: As of Q4 2025, Mohnish Pabrai's portfolio consists of four stocks, with 39.47% in Warrior Met Coal Inc (NYSE:HCC), 27.78% in Transocean Ltd (NYSE:RIG), 27% in Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (NYSE:AMR), and 5.76% in Valaris Ltd (NYSE:VAL), indicating a concentrated investment strategy in the Basic Materials and Energy sectors.
- Major Stock Increases: Pabrai increased his stake in Transocean Ltd (NYSE:RIG) by 2,597,801 shares, bringing his total to 27,040,133 shares, representing a 10.63% increase and a 2.67% impact on the current portfolio, valued at $111,675,750, reflecting strong confidence in the company's prospects.
- Position Reductions: Pabrai reduced his position in Valaris Ltd (NYSE:VAL) by 607,157 shares, resulting in a 56.94% decrease and an -8.79% impact on the portfolio, with the stock trading at an average price of $53.71 during the quarter, showing his strategic response to market fluctuations with a 57.66% return over the past three months and 76.37% year-to-date.
- Complete Exit: In Q4 2025, Pabrai completely exited his holding in Noble Corp PLC (NYSE:NE), selling all 239,000 shares, which resulted in a -2.01% impact on the portfolio, indicating a reassessment of the stock's future outlook.
See More
Warrior Met Coal Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings and Production
- Production Capacity Boost: Warrior Met Coal achieved a record production volume of 10.2 million short tons and sales volume of 9.6 million short tons in Q4 2025, demonstrating strong performance despite weak market conditions for steelmaking coal.
- Cost Structure Optimization: The early 8-month startup of the Blue Creek longwall led to an adjusted EBITDA of $93 million in Q4, a 75% increase from the same quarter in 2024, while cash costs per short ton decreased from $120 to $94, significantly enhancing profitability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company expects sales volumes to increase by over 30% and production volumes by over 20% in 2026, driven by the ongoing contributions from the Blue Creek mine, indicating a strong competitive position in the market.
- Shareholder Return Plans: Management plans to initiate cash returns to shareholders soon, including higher fixed quarterly dividends and potential special cash dividends, reflecting confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder value.
See More
Trump Signs Executive Order for Coal Purchases
- Coal Procurement Directive: President Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of Defense to purchase electricity from coal-fired power plants, aiming to support the struggling coal industry and enhance national energy security through military procurement of significant coal supplies.
- Funding for Upgrades: The Energy Department will allocate $175 million to upgrade six coal plants across Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia, aiming to improve operational efficiency and environmental compliance of these facilities.
- Closure Delay Announcement: The Tennessee Valley Authority announced plans to delay the closure of two older coal-fired plants in Tennessee, indicating government support for the coal industry, which may impact the future energy landscape.
- Industry Outlook Analysis: While coal generation rose approximately 13% year-over-year, the International Energy Agency projects that U.S. coal consumption will decline by 6% annually through 2030, reflecting a gradual shift towards renewable energy and natural gas alternatives.
See More
WARRIOR MET COAL INC: B. RILEY INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $74 TO $120
- Company Update: Warrior Met Coal, Inc. has raised its target price significantly from $74 to $120.
- Analyst Insight: The increase in target price reflects positive market expectations and potential growth for the company.
See More
Bullish Thesis on Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Highlights Growth Potential
- Production Capacity Increase: Warrior Met Coal's Blue Creek mine ramp-up is expected to boost total production capacity by approximately 75%, positioning the company as a low-cost, high-quality coal producer, marking a structural inflection point for the firm.
- Strong Cash Flow: The legacy Mines 4 and 7 continue to generate robust cash flow, funding the Blue Creek expansion while maintaining a lean cost structure, ensuring sustainable shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.
- Logistics Advantage: Warrior benefits from a logistics moat with direct access to the Port of Mobile, enabling efficient exports to Europe, South America, and the rapidly growing Asian market, where demand for premium coking coal is structurally non-substitutable.
- Free Cash Flow Phase: The completion of Blue Creek shifts the company from high capital expenditures to a free cash flow generation phase, with sustaining capital expected to normalize around $140–150 million annually, supporting shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.
See More
Warrior Met Coal and Semtech Options Show High Trading Volume
- Warrior Met Coal Options: Warrior Met Coal Inc (Ticker: HCC) has seen an options volume of 6,186 contracts today, representing approximately 618,600 shares, which is 55.7% of its average daily trading volume of 1.1 million shares over the past month.
- High Volume Call Options: Notably, the $80 strike call option expiring on May 15, 2026, has traded 5,530 contracts, equating to about 553,000 shares, indicating strong market expectations for future price increases of HCC.
- Semtech Options Activity: Semtech Corp (Ticker: SMTC) has recorded an options volume of 8,096 contracts today, representing approximately 809,600 shares, which is 55.3% of its average daily trading volume of 1.5 million shares over the past month.
- High Volume Put Options: The $85 strike put option expiring on April 17, 2026, has seen 4,001 contracts traded, representing about 400,100 shares, reflecting market concerns regarding potential declines in SMTC's stock price.
See More
Mohnish Pabrai's Investment Portfolio Adjustments in Q4 2025
- Portfolio Overview: As of Q4 2025, Mohnish Pabrai's portfolio consists of four stocks, with 39.47% in Warrior Met Coal Inc (NYSE:HCC), 27.78% in Transocean Ltd (NYSE:RIG), 27% in Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (NYSE:AMR), and 5.76% in Valaris Ltd (NYSE:VAL), indicating a concentrated investment strategy in the Basic Materials and Energy sectors.
- Major Stock Increases: Pabrai increased his stake in Transocean Ltd (NYSE:RIG) by 2,597,801 shares, bringing his total to 27,040,133 shares, representing a 10.63% increase and a 2.67% impact on the current portfolio, valued at $111,675,750, reflecting strong confidence in the company's prospects.
- Position Reductions: Pabrai reduced his position in Valaris Ltd (NYSE:VAL) by 607,157 shares, resulting in a 56.94% decrease and an -8.79% impact on the portfolio, with the stock trading at an average price of $53.71 during the quarter, showing his strategic response to market fluctuations with a 57.66% return over the past three months and 76.37% year-to-date.
- Complete Exit: In Q4 2025, Pabrai completely exited his holding in Noble Corp PLC (NYSE:NE), selling all 239,000 shares, which resulted in a -2.01% impact on the portfolio, indicating a reassessment of the stock's future outlook.
See More
Warrior Met Coal Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings and Production
- Production Capacity Boost: Warrior Met Coal achieved a record production volume of 10.2 million short tons and sales volume of 9.6 million short tons in Q4 2025, demonstrating strong performance despite weak market conditions for steelmaking coal.
- Cost Structure Optimization: The early 8-month startup of the Blue Creek longwall led to an adjusted EBITDA of $93 million in Q4, a 75% increase from the same quarter in 2024, while cash costs per short ton decreased from $120 to $94, significantly enhancing profitability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company expects sales volumes to increase by over 30% and production volumes by over 20% in 2026, driven by the ongoing contributions from the Blue Creek mine, indicating a strong competitive position in the market.
- Shareholder Return Plans: Management plans to initiate cash returns to shareholders soon, including higher fixed quarterly dividends and potential special cash dividends, reflecting confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder value.
See More
Trump Signs Executive Order for Coal Purchases
- Coal Procurement Directive: President Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of Defense to purchase electricity from coal-fired power plants, aiming to support the struggling coal industry and enhance national energy security through military procurement of significant coal supplies.
- Funding for Upgrades: The Energy Department will allocate $175 million to upgrade six coal plants across Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia, aiming to improve operational efficiency and environmental compliance of these facilities.
- Closure Delay Announcement: The Tennessee Valley Authority announced plans to delay the closure of two older coal-fired plants in Tennessee, indicating government support for the coal industry, which may impact the future energy landscape.
- Industry Outlook Analysis: While coal generation rose approximately 13% year-over-year, the International Energy Agency projects that U.S. coal consumption will decline by 6% annually through 2030, reflecting a gradual shift towards renewable energy and natural gas alternatives.
See More
