November Retail Sales Increase 4.5% as Holiday Season Begins Strong, According to NRF
Retail Sales Performance: Retail sales increased by 0.1% month over month and 4.5% year over year in November, showing a slowdown compared to October's 0.6% and 5.0% increases.
Core Retail Sales Trends: Core retail sales, excluding restaurants, auto dealers, and gas stations, saw a slight decline of 0.04% month over month but a 4.7% increase year over year.
Consumer Behavior Insights: Shoppers may have delayed spending until Cyber Monday due to a late Thanksgiving, with a focus on value and competitive pricing during the holiday season.
Future Sales Forecast: The National Retail Federation predicts a 3.7% to 4.2% increase in holiday sales for 2025, projecting total sales to exceed $1 trillion from November 1 to December 31.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on XRT
About the author


Market Reaction: Stocks experienced a rally on Friday following the Supreme Court's rejection of a key aspect of President Trump's trade policy.
Future Outlook: Despite the initial market relief, investors are advised to brace for upcoming economic uncertainties.
Consumer Discretionary Performance: Consumer discretionary stocks have seen minimal growth, with only a 2% increase over the past year as indicated by the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF.
Comparison with Other S&P Sectors: Among the 11 major S&P sectors, consumer discretionary stocks performed poorly, with only financials showing worse performance, remaining unchanged over the same period.
S&P 500 Growth: In contrast, the S&P 500 has experienced a more robust gain of 12% over the past year, highlighting the underperformance of consumer discretionary and financial sectors.
Market Trends: The overall market trends suggest a challenging environment for consumer discretionary stocks, reflecting broader economic conditions affecting consumer spending.
Market Performance: The bull run in the market continued, with both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching record highs.
Investor Sentiment: The ongoing upward trend indicates strong investor confidence and optimism in the market's future performance.
- Shift in Consumer Spending: People are expected to move their spending habits from services and experiences to physical goods.
- Focus on Physical Goods: There will be an increased emphasis on purchasing items such as houses and furniture.
Costco's Performance in 2025: Costco Wholesale faced challenges in 2025, impacting its overall performance.
Potential for Recovery: The company has the potential to rebound in the current year with the right catalysts.
Investor Sentiment: Despite recent difficulties, Costco remains a favorite among Wall Street investors.
Need for Catalysts: To regain momentum, Costco requires specific triggers to jumpstart its growth.
- Costco's Performance in 2025: Costco Wholesale faced challenges in 2025, impacting its overall performance.
- Potential for Recovery: The company has the potential to rebound in the current year with the right catalysts.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite difficulties, Costco remains a favorite among Wall Street investors.
- Need for Catalysts: To regain momentum, Costco requires specific triggers to jumpstart its growth.









